8/18 (AP): Million, Bev D., Secretariat (G1's), St. Leger, Hatoof (2)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th (5:02) Beverly D. S. (G1)

1 3/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Kapitale (GER) Demuro M 123 FTL
2 I'm A Dreamer (IRE) Turner H 123 L
3 Romacaca Torres F C 123 L
4 Upperline Graham J 123 L
5 Mystical Star Lezcano J 123 L
6 Up (IRE) O'Donoghue C 117 L
7 Aruna Dominguez R A 123 L
8 Marketing Mix Leparoux J R 123 L
9 Stars to Shine Solis A 123 L
10 Joviality (GB) Buick W 123 FTL

I'm just not that impressed with the probable favorites here, and I honestly don't see why Romacaca can't run the same race she ran in the Modesty and win this at a price.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I'm just not that impressed with the probable favorites here, and I honestly don't see why Romacaca can't run the same race she ran in the Modesty and win this at a price.

What was she last time....4-1?? I hope to get that again, but it's Calabrese so who knows

[PatCummings]

For the Bev D - I'm a Dreamer seems best of the Euros (her third in the Brigadier Gerard the best overall Euro race in the field, and she defeated Up), and Kapitale has to be used, especially with Demuro coming in for the ride, and Joviality won't get soft ground. Marketing Mix just isn't top-top-shelf it would seem, so the rest of the Americans seem relatively balanced. Has the look of a spread race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by GBBob

What was she last time....4-1?? I hope to get that again, but it's Calabrese so who knows

She's 15/1 ML but yeah, I don't think there is any way a Calabrese horse, coming off a win in the Modesty, with a very good record at AP, who appears to be working just like she did before her last win goes off at that price against these horses.
Obviously Mystical Star, Marketing Mix and the Euros will take a lot of money, but I don't see them as being a lot more likely to win.

But then again it seems like every year I convince myself that some particular horse who ran well on Preview Day is going to win on Million Day....and it never works out.

[Fulla Sheets]

Isn't there some crazy stat about the winners of the Modesty not winning the Beverly D. the same year?

[Fulla Sheets]

I just looked it up. No Modesty winner has ever won the Beverly D. in the same year, but only 11 have tried. Of the 21 years when both races were run, only 4 Beverly D. winners ran in the Modesty.

[PatCummings]

Tentatively...

Jakkalberry w Bayrir/SilverMax w ALL w ALL w Crackerjack King

Then backup plays focusing on Kapitale/Joviality/I'mADreamer in the 4th leg

[Fulla Sheets]

While I'm at it, Arlington Handicap winners are 0 for 16 in the Arlington Million of the same year. Of the 29 years when both races were run, 0 Million winners ran in the Arlington Handicap. But 10 were Europeans and didn't prep in the US.