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#1
07-29-2012, 03:28 PM
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#2
07-29-2012, 07:09 PM
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Anyone who thinks anything suspicious happened in the 5th race today at Saratoga is nuts.
The 70-to-1 shot winner Lady Utopia was far from a proven commodity. She was just a 3rd time starter! Her broodmare sire Glitterman was an excellent stallion. Here is what I wrote about Glitterman as a broodmare sire of debuters : http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...9&postcount=17 Quote:
For whatever reason -- a lot of Glitterman's don't fire in their debut. Balto Star was Glitterman's richest son. He finished 8th and last in his debut at odds of 6/5. He was off the board at AQU in starts #2 and #3. http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=6 Just months later, Balto Star won the Grade 2 Spiral by 13 lengths. He won the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby by 4.5 lengths. And he was 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby after running last in his debut and off-the-board back to back in starts 2 and 3 at AQU. He eventually became a 7-time Graded Stakes winner after a terrible start to his career. So, getting back to Lady Utopia, you have a horse who doesn't fire in her debut. In career start #2, she's in with NY Breds and breaks through the gate before the race. Something that causes a lot of horses at all class levels to turn in poor performances Today, she's a 3rd time starter, adding blinkers for the 1st time with two excuses in her first two races. Basically, she was not a known commodity at all. Yes, she had only a 27 Beyer when she broke through the gate and raced without blinkers last time out, but the even money favorite in the race had figures of 5 and 45 in her two dirt races. As for the 44-to-1 second place finisher -- she was a 100K purchase at a 2yo sale by Half Ours. She was making only her 2nd lifetime start on dirt and plunging in for a 20K tag. In her only other dirt start, she got bumped at the start in what was her career debut, and she faced the sensationally fast NY Bred filly turned Agave Kiss. Basically, the even money favorite was a bad favorite in that race and an extremely medicore horse even for the cheap class level. Two fairly unproven commodities put it all together and finished 1st and 2nd.
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#4
07-29-2012, 07:30 PM
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Each race is its own entity. There are a lot of bottom State bred races where favorites should dominate and the chance of 'chaos' occuring is virtually close to zero.
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#7
07-29-2012, 08:06 PM
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Newsflash for those looking for "cheating"
In general you should look for prices that paid less than they should not more. Like the time when I was working at Yonkers when the exacta in a race came back less than the 1st place finisher did to win.
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#8
07-29-2012, 07:24 PM
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More recent racing day: 9/1 winner edges a 56/1 2nd place finisher by a nose. In the very next race, 16/1 winner beats a 62/1 2nd place finisher by a length. Two days ago: A 91/1 shot finishes 2nd. In the very next race, a 85/1 shot finishes 2nd beaten just a 1.5 lengths by a $15.00 winner. Three days ago: An 87/1 bomb finishes 2nd by a neck. In the last 21 races to occur at Presque Isle Downs, horses have finished a competitive 2nd at odds of 56/1, 62/1, 85/1, 87/1, and 91/1.
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