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#1
07-07-2012, 05:45 AM
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7/7: Belmont (7th-10th); Calder (7th-12th)
There were two tricky horses to find in Friday's Belmont Double Carryover P6, $25.20 Mary P. Jones in the 5th and $12.80 Special Skills in the 6th. I tabbed both as Best Value runners but only used the 2nd choice former on the ticket. Special Skills, from ever dangerous Alan Goldberg, was a first time starter and I leaned on the 2 in the race that had already run. Got back the investment on the conso anyway and it was a fun afternoon. Hope everyone did well. Chance that New York cancels due to the heat. Here's a look at the BEL P4 and Summit of Speed at Calder before the wife and I head to Quebec for a few days..
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Some tough decisions to make regarding the many stretchout runners that are signed on here. You have to figure at least one if them is going to take to the added distance.. Most Likely: #2 Adirondack Dancer 5-1 WON ($7.30) Best Value: #7 Gossip Column 8-1 2nd Next Best: #11 Carbon County 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Wild Exploit 4-1 5th 8th: 10th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD) Agave Kiss is the least-known undefeated horse in the world. She's not Frankel, but she's pretty darn nice. You get the feeling this will be a real test for her breaking from inside and with virtually all but Sea Island looking like pace pressure. Because of that scenario, it is Sea Island that offers value as the likely upsetter should the 6-for-6 Lion Heart filly faulter. Worth at least back-up P3/P4 plays as insurance.. Most Likely: #1 Agave Kiss 2-5 5th Best Value: #6 Sea Island 10-1 4th Next Best: #5 Gypsy Robin 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #3 Jamaican Smoke 6-1 2nd 9th: 126th Suburban H. (G2), 3+, 9f (DD) Outstanding cast for this historic race and it sure feels like there will be an honest if not spirited pace on with Trickmeister leading the parade. Of course when you get that scenario, it's often a recipe for riders looking at each other out of the gate with no one moving. To Honor and Serve too short a number to warmly embrace and am inclined to stay the course with Hymm Book whose rally has fallen short in last two. Need to cover several bases to get through this in the multis though and that includes Pletcher-Repole pair and resurgent Buffum.. Best Value: #4 Hymm Book 6-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Stay Thirsty 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #7 To Honor and Serve 9-5 4th Super Add: #3 Buffum 8-1 6th 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T Most Likely: #9 Count Catamount 7-2 WON ($6.60) Best Value: #7 Galaxy Cat 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #1 Fisherman's Wharf 3-1 6th Super Add: #11 Tiger Willie 30-1 9th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-7-8-9-11 8: 1 9: 1-3-4-6-7 10: 1-7-9 MAIN: 5x1x5x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50) CALDER RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 7th: Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3) Most Likely: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 5th Next Best: #4 Determinato 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Freewest 12-1 6th Super Add: #10 Silver Cloud 10-1 4th 8th: Carry Back (G3), 3yo, 6f (P5, P3) Most Likely: #3 Trinniberg 6-5 2nd Next Best: #7 Fort Loudon 9-5 WON ($5.80) Exotics Use: #6 Angelofdistinction 12-1 3rd 9th: Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3) Most Likely: #9 Redbud Road 6-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Defy Gravity 15-1 5th Next Best: #3 Say a Novena 4-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Citizen Advocate 5-2 2nd 10th: Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (P3) Most Likely: #10 Gantry 5-1 WON ($5.80) Best Value: #1 Cajun Breeze 15-1 6th Next Best: #5 Field Commission 5-2 8th Exotics Use: #7 Indiano 6-1 2nd 11th: Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Musical Romance 5-2 WON ($4.20) Best Value: #7 Boquet Booth 6-1 5th Next Best: #9 Nicole H 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Nakano 10-1 3rd 12th: Hollywood Wildcat, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T ( Most Likely: #1 Speak Easy Gal 3-1 6th Next Best: #10 Callmethesqueeze 8-1 WON ($11.80) Exotics Use: #7 Trip for A.J. 4-1 3rd Super Add: #9 Timezone 6-1 8th <$75 P5 Play: 8: 3-7 9: 1-3-9 10: 1-5-10 11: 5-7 12: 1-7-9-10 2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 <$50 P4 Play: 9: 1-2-3-9 10: 1-5-10 11: 5-7 12: 1-7-9-10 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 $.50 Pick 4 (2-3/6/10-5-10) Paid $137.25 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-07-2012 at 06:46 PM. 
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#2
07-07-2012, 06:31 AM
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Great job again yesterday, thought you were going to nail another P6!
BOL today and hope you and the Mrs. enjoy your vacation. Please check race 10 @ Calder, I think Indiano is the #7 not 8 as listed. Thanks as always for your time and insights.
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#4
07-07-2012, 11:11 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
07-07-2012, 05:45 PM
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Thanks for the choices and opinions today Steve! Your Calder PK 4 has a typo using the 2 in the 9th instead of the 5. I must have jotted the #s down this morning and played them as written. I guess when I looked at the PPs, the 2 fell within my choices also.
 Endorsement 
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#6
07-07-2012, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Quote:
 Too funny.. Glad it worked that way for those that played it as written. I didn't highlight because my own play didn't use Another Romance and I didn't notice the typo.. I just knew I didn't use her! Hope everybody got something somewhere today.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
07-07-2012, 06:47 PM
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$62k BEL P6 C/O SUNDAY
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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