From Harvard Business Review

[Calzone Lord]

In terms of return on investment VS post time odds.

Sample size: 1,774,850 starts

Less than 1-to-2: 62.7% wins and $1.74 ROI

1-to-2 to less than even money: 47% wins and $1.65 ROI

Even money to 9-to-5: 33% wins and $1.64 ROI

2-to-1 and 5-to-2: 23.7% wins and $1.63 ROI

3-to-1 and 7-to-2: 18.2% wins and $1.61 ROI

4-to-1 and 9-to-2: 15% wins and $1.62 ROI

5-to-1: 12.6% wins and $1.61 ROI

6-1: 11% wins and $1.64 ROI

7-1: 9.7% wins and $1.63 ROI

8-1: 8.9% wins and $1.68 ROI

9-1: 7.8% wins and $1.61 ROI

10-1: 7.3% wins and $1.65 ROI

11-1: 6.5% wins and $1.62 ROI

12-1: 6.1% wins and $1.63 ROI

13-1: 5.5% wins and $1.59 ROI

14-1: 5.2% wins and $1.59 ROI

15-1 to 19-1: 4.3% wins and $1.57 ROI

20-1 to 29-1: 3.0% wins and $1.52 ROI

30-1 to 39-1: 1.8% wins and $1.26 ROI

40-1 to 49-1: 1.4% wins and $1.26 ROI

50-1 to 59-1: 1.0% wins and $1.07 ROI

60-1 to 99-1: 0.60% wins and $0.85 ROI

100-1 and up: 0.30% wins and $0.58 ROI



Basically, heavy favorites of 2-5 or less are the horses that yield the highest generic return on investment. This is probably because the public can't make any real money with them and will lay off backing superior horses at that price.

All horses from 1-to-2 favorites to 12-to-1 longshots yield an almost identical return from a general standpoint.

Horses who go off at odds of 30-to-1 or more offer the least general value and are the most overbet type of horses from a generic standpoint.

The sky-high takeout is a big factor. In the very early post-bookmaking days when pari-mutual takeouts were in the 4% to 12% range ... a lot more "plungers" existed. They liked to very heavily bet short priced favorites.

The skill of handicapper will show more with medium price horses and longshots than with favorites. Some 12/1 shots are completely hopeless while others are legit contenders. Generally, most horses odds-on are deserving favorites.