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#1
06-19-2012, 03:38 PM
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Frankel went 2.29 seconds (or about 13.5 lengths and about 25 Beyer points) faster than Group 1 3-year-olds did at the same distance in the St James's Palace Stakes at the same distance today.
I made the Harbinger number as conservative as humanly possible to keep it no higher than a figure of 125. I think Frankel's performance today was conservatively in the 120-to-125 range. Easily the 2nd fastest turf race I've ever did a projection for -- trailing only Harbinger's win in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo7pEsp2WKc ) 
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#2
06-19-2012, 04:04 PM
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Frankel was simply stunning today. Best horse of my lifetime, better than Secretariat? He's not even fully mature yet, and look at how he's become even more massive this year. Two pounds better than Sea Bird! Can't wait to see him stretch out to mile and more.
Don't forget second ranked horse, the great Aussie sprint mare Black Caviar, runs Saturday am at Ascot (last day meet)
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#3
06-19-2012, 05:31 PM
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What was the quality of todays field like?
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#4
06-19-2012, 05:34 PM
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#5
06-20-2012, 10:10 AM
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It will be a shame if we never get to see him. However, I disagree strongly with those who want to see him in the Classic. I'd much rather witness his brilliance than a ridiculous gamble like the one they took with his sire Galielo when they sent him on the dirt. Why does anyone think he needs to prove anything on dirt (other than breeders), when he is quite possibly the best at his craft we've seen in a generation.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#6
06-20-2012, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Especially since Godolphin and Coolmore ran 1-2 in the BC Turf with other horses on the same card, some 6 lengths clear of any American-based rival. They've already said they won't waste their time bringing Frankel over for the BC Mile. Basically only track configuration/post position could get him beat. It's a longshot, but hopefully, they go beyond his "craft" and actually broaden his horizons at some point.
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#7
06-20-2012, 10:57 AM
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Quote:
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#8
06-26-2012, 07:50 PM
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Quote:
The Queen Anne and St. James's Palace are run on different parts of the Ascot racecourse. The Queen Anne is a straight mile, while the St. James's is run with a right-handed turn.
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#9
06-26-2012, 07:57 PM
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Quote:
If you're going to run two separate Gr 1 races on the same day and distance ... leave it to the sh!t for brain Euro's to run them on two different parts of the course and waste an opportunity to make a clean comparison. They are messed up the way they do things over there.
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#10
06-26-2012, 08:03 PM
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Regarding Harbinger's race...
2nd place finisher Cape Blanco's surrounding form:  5th place finisher Workforce's surrounding form:  The 3rd and 4th place finishers who split them are extremely honest Group 1 winning older horses. The other race same day and distance went 33 lengths slower. Cape Blanco beat this years 3-length Dubai World Cup winner Monterosso in the Irish Derby. He beat Twice Over and Rip Van Winkle into a pulp immediately after the Harbinger race. Twice Over form: 
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#11
06-26-2012, 08:43 PM
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Aside from the obvious lopsidedness of the vanquished foes, it seems visually that Harbinger was by far the more impressive of the two as well. Under an absolute hold while Cape Blanco and Workforce are committed to the front with a 1/4 mile left, makes short work of that pair when asked, hand-ridden while remaining in full stride to the wire.
IMO, the only reason Frankel won by the margin he did was that Excelebration, the only other horse in the race you could characterize as Group 1 material with a straight face, was taken completely out of his game. Normally, that colt is held up in the back. In every other start versus Frankel, he takes a stalking position behind that rival. In the Queen Anne, he's asked to sit close and match Frankel stride for stride throughout. A desperate (and futile) tactic that nearly costs him the runner-up spot.
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#12
06-26-2012, 08:54 PM
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Harbinger's 4-year-old form:
 Obviously the form of a developing horse getting better with every race leading up to a giant performance. Here is a look at the Hardwicke group Harbinger demolished in the race before he truly exploded: * Duncan (2nd by 3.5 lengths) raced 7 more times after this race, winning 3 of them. Two Group 2 wins and a Group 1 win. * Barshiba (3rd by 9.5 lengths) won a Group 2 next time out. * Sans Frontieres (4th by 11 lengths) Raced 3 more times and won ALL 3 of those races. Took a Group 2 by 2.5 lengths at 14/1 odds next out. Took a Group 3 by 2.5 lengths next. Won a Group 1 in his final start. * Redwood (5th by 11.75 lengths) He was in the top 3 in ALL of his next 7 races and all at the Group level. Here is his form going into the $5 million Dubai race where he finished 2nd in.  * Crowded House (6th by 15.5 lengths) He finished 2nd beaten less than a length in the Gr 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar less than 3 months later. * Petara Bay (7th by 17.5 lengths) He had two 4th's and a win in handicap races at odds of 7/1, 40/1, and 12/1 in his next 3 starts. * Wajir (8th by 22 lengths) 6-for-16 lifetime and a multiple Group stakes winner. Last seen winning a race Meydan by almost 5 lengths. * Jukebox Jury (9th by 22 lengths) Won 3 of his remaining 6 starts including a Group 1 win. He's 9-for-22 lifetime and a multiple Group 1 winner. * Claremont (10th by 23 lengths) Won a race at Meydan at 10/1 odds in the 3rd start after this. * South Easter (11th by 45 lengths) Was a distant 2nd in a 10-horse Group 3 next time out to Await The Dawn.
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