NBA CHAMPIONSHIP: Who wins and in how many games

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

+/- is a pretty useless stat

It's not so much a stat -- it's just a running score of how the team did when the player was on the floor.

For instance:

'11-12 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 474 points
'11-12 Miami Heat without James on the floor: outscored by 80 points

'10-11 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 619 points
'10-11 Miami Heat without James on the floor: Outscored by 4 points

'09-10 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 650 points
'09-10 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 117 points

'08-09 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 871 points
'08-09 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 142 points


So, over the last four years...

When James is on the court... his team wins by 2,614 points.

When James isn't on the court ... his team loses by 343 points.


That simply tells me he's more valuable to his team than any other player.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's not so much a stat -- it's just a running score of how the team did when the player was on the floor.

For instance:

'11-12 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 474 points
'11-12 Miami Heat without James on the floor: outscored by 80 points

'10-11 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 619 points
'10-11 Miami Heat without James on the floor: Outscored by 4 points

'09-10 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 650 points
'09-10 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 117 points

'08-09 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 871 points
'08-09 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 142 points


So, over the last four years...

When James is on the court... his team wins by 2,614 points.

When James isn't on the court ... his team loses by 343 points.


That simply tells me he's more valuable to his team than any other player.

That tells me he plays a lot of minutes on a good team. It is a team stat because good players on bad teams are unfairly punished and bad players on good teams are unfairly helped. I don't know how his team being worse when James is off the floor (meaning a substitute is playing in his place) is a meaningful stat. Stats w/o context are a waste of time

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

That tells me he plays a lot of minutes on a good team. It is a team stat because good players on bad teams are unfairly punished and bad players on good teams are unfairly helped. I don't know how his team being worse when James is off the floor (meaning a substitute is playing in his place) is a meaningful stat. Stats w/o context are a waste of time

Isn't your value to your team determined by how much better you are than your replacement?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Isn't your value to your team determined by how much better you are than your replacement?

No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well. If James goes out of the game the other team is likely to take out its best defensive player (assuming that is who is guarding James) because you try to get him rest when James isnt in because he plays so much. So a player on the court for Miami is now playing against a lineup w/o its best defensive player which artificially inflates the replacements +/-. Plus in a 5 on 5 situation an individual player can only have so much impact on scoring and scoring prevention. In theory if everyone was equal on a given team then they would all contribute 20% to offense and defense while on the court. But obviously that isnt reality but even the top players like James/Durant/Kobe etc can only have so much impact on scoring or defending. Other factors are starters are begining the game facing other starters (usually the other teams best players with a few notable exceptions like Harden and Ginobelli) and are playing the tougher to score minutes at the end of games. Backups are getting more time against other backups and there is sometimes a huge difference between players 5,6 and 7 on bad teams and good teams.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well.

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

You dont need the +/- to know that. His game is overanalyzed to the point of hysteria though the media has seemingly switched over to Westbrook since it has been pretty hard to fault Lebron.

Scott Brooks is being completely outcoached. Having Derek Fisher in the game for as long as he did last night was a huge mistake. But despite none of OKC's players playing particularly well they lost the game because Miami made FT's and they didn't.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

I doubt either of the Cavs teams make the playoffs without him. Miami does but doesn't make it to the finals. I think second round at best. Going back to the 2007 season, I don't even think the team he took to the finals gets out of the first round, if they even make the playoffs. The only thing I've seen that rivals that is Iverson taking the Sixers to the finals in 2001.

Most people who are objective have long since admitted he's the clear best player. He's not the best scorer or the best shooter or the best rebounder, etc., but he best combines all of those in addition to being the best passer and defender. There is no other player that gives you as much in so many areas of the game as James does.

[RockHardTen1985]

I bet Miami and figured they would drop game 3. This series is over. Could be 5.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's not so much a stat -- it's just a running score of how the team did when the player was on the floor.

For instance:

'11-12 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 474 points
'11-12 Miami Heat without James on the floor: outscored by 80 points

'10-11 Miami Heat with James on the floor: ahead by 619 points
'10-11 Miami Heat without James on the floor: Outscored by 4 points

'09-10 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 650 points
'09-10 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 117 points

'08-09 Cavs with James on the floor: ahead by 871 points
'08-09 Cavs without James on the floor: Outscored by 142 points


So, over the last four years...

When James is on the court... his team wins by 2,614 points.

When James isn't on the court ... his team loses by 343 points.


That simply tells me he's more valuable to his team than any other player.

http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/fin...ls=st&g=2&t=bs

Last night Derek Fisher was terrible. He couldnt hit open shots, had no assists, 1 rebound and was no factor on defense except for maybe 1 or 2 plays. He was +13. Kevin Durant was Kevin Durant and he was a -9.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/fin...ls=st&g=2&t=bs

Last night Derek Fisher was terrible. He couldnt hit open shots, had no assists, 1 rebound and was no factor on defense except for maybe 1 or 2 plays. He was +13. Kevin Durant was Kevin Durant and he was a -9.

Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

6 games
13-35
3-16
8 rebounds
7 assists
0 Blocks
6 steals

Westbrook almost makes me want to root for the Heat...almost. Pass. To. Durant. Hipster. Douche.

[King Glorious]

I really thought Miami couldn't deal with OKC but they are proving me wrong. I'm not sure why Brooks is helping them out so much with his substitutions. Why in the world was Westbrook out when Durant went out with his fourth foul? Why did Ibaka play so little? Westbrook is too young to need a rest. He should be able to go 48 every night. I just don't get it. At the same time, James is certainly not choking. He went for 29 and 14 boards tonight. Scored 16 in the first half and 13 in the second. Had eight in the last quarter and a couple of nice assists and rebounds in addition to keeping Durant in check. He's certainly not going to be the reason his team loses if they do.