Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 06-05-2012, 05:26 PM
HaloWishingwell's Avatar
HaloWishingwell HaloWishingwell is offline
Ak-Sar-Ben
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 654
Default

I didnt like Union Rags for the Classics the moment I read his breeding. As for him being placed with the leaders early on, I welcome it. I'll Have Another has caught anyone who has been ahead of him all four races this year. Looks like your best chance is to strike late against him.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 06-05-2012, 05:26 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt View Post
I think recent history shows that fresher horses run better at Belmont. I don't believe we've had a horse who ran in the Preakness win the Belmont since 2005. And before that, you have to go back to Point Given in 2001 to find a Belmont winner who even ran in the Preakness.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush View Post
I agree, but you could argue Curlin ran a winning race in the Belmont after winning the preakness
Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 2nd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 06-06-2012 at 09:24 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 06-05-2012, 05:30 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig View Post


speaking of four years ago, is that when you had the bet vs dahoss that you lost? not sure the exact time frame....
Not much improvment here.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 06-05-2012, 06:33 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,940
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Not much improvment here.
i'll try not to lose sleep over your lack of approval.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all.
Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 06-05-2012, 08:51 PM
Sightseek's Avatar
Sightseek Sightseek is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 3rd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3
First Dude was 2nd in the Preakness.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 06-06-2012, 04:17 AM
pba1817 pba1817 is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 541
Default

When I look at Union Rags efforts as the distances increased.. the diminishing figures and duller performances to me says, "Hey, I love 1 turn races".

He does get the french statue off his back and did run his best race ever over the surface, so he has a couple things going for him...
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 06-06-2012, 04:56 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

John Velasquez is a downgrade at this point. If you look since April 1st Leparoux has been a far better rider.

John is an anchor too. Especially if he takes a look at the turf course during the race. Might as well ease the horse at that point.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 06-06-2012, 07:01 AM
pucknut pucknut is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 3rd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3
Steve nice analysis of the belmont in the xpressbet feature
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 06-06-2012, 09:28 AM
slotdirt's Avatar
slotdirt slotdirt is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,894
Default

Great stats, Steve. Wondering what the record in that time of Derby runners skipping the Preakness is. Just off the top of my noodle, there's Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, and Summer Bird, and Rags to Riches should half count. Even in the years where there were big upsetters since Point Given in '01 (i.e., Da'Tara, Ruler on Ice), horses like Denis of Cork, Bluegrass Cat, Dunkirk, and Stay Thirsty have gone Derby-Preakness and run second.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 06-06-2012, 10:03 AM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 06-06-2012, 10:09 AM
Dylan Burke's Avatar
Dylan Burke Dylan Burke is offline
Sunshine Park
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 88
Default

I'm taking Union Rags mainly because of JV getting the mount. No one knows his way around Belmont better than him, and I think he'll have him in a good spot throughout.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 06-06-2012, 10:39 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.
I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 06-06-2012, 08:12 PM
pba1817 pba1817 is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 541
Default

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPDZSy0MJrA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 06-06-2012, 08:53 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pucknut View Post
Steve nice analysis of the belmont in the xpressbet feature
Thx.. Was certainly disappointed by Alpha coming out as I was gearing towards him. Will get an update filed tomorrow.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 06-06-2012, 09:05 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt View Post
Great stats, Steve. Wondering what the record in that time of Derby runners skipping the Preakness is. Just off the top of my noodle, there's Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, and Summer Bird, and Rags to Riches should half count. Even in the years where there were big upsetters since Point Given in '01 (i.e., Da'Tara, Ruler on Ice), horses like Denis of Cork, Bluegrass Cat, Dunkirk, and Stay Thirsty have gone Derby-Preakness and run second.
Andromeda's Hero skipped and was the distant 2nd to Afleet Alex in '05...

Other Preakness skippers include:

Master of Hounds, Santiva, Nehro, Brilliant Speed last year;
Stately Victor, Ice Box, Make Music for Me in '10;
Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy in '09;
Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal in '08;
I'mawildandcrazyguy, Tiago in '07
Deputy Glitters, Bob and John, Steppenwolfer in '06
Perfect Drift in '02
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 06-06-2012 at 09:25 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 06-06-2012, 09:09 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

remember when a hero came back at toga . 3/5 broke frome the gate and stopped..arggg.. you have alink to the express bet write up steve?
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 06-06-2012, 09:22 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dylan Burke View Post
I'm taking Union Rags mainly because of JV getting the mount. No one knows his way around Belmont better than him, and I think he'll have him in a good spot throughout.
Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.
If you're on the Union Rags bandwagon, don't miss the archived Hour 1 today for Johnny's extensive comments on him (followed by Angel Cordero's thoughts and Steve Davidowitz' as well). Plus, Johnny relives Rags to Riches' 2007 Belmont win.

DIRECT LINK: http://tinyurl.com/7ajvamb

NOTEWORTHY: Velazquez 6/1-3-1 in Belmont since '06 with problematic Animal Kingdom journey the lone off-board experience...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 06-06-2012, 09:34 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead View Post
remember when a hero came back at toga . 3/5 broke frome the gate and stopped..arggg.. you have alink to the express bet write up steve?
Remember was well beaten by Flower Alley in the Jim Dandy & Travers.. The only graded stake he ever won was the Fred Hooper. I remember him being in Brass Hat's Donn.

XpressBet Belmont Wagering Guide: http://www.xpressbet.com/BSWG2012
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 06-06-2012, 10:41 PM
Merlinsky Merlinsky is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,049
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
If you're on the Union Rags bandwagon, don't miss the archived Hour 1 today for Johnny's extensive comments on him (followed by Angel Cordero's thoughts and Steve Davidowitz' as well). Plus, Johnny relives Rags to Riches' 2007 Belmont win.

DIRECT LINK: http://tinyurl.com/7ajvamb

NOTEWORTHY: Velazquez 6/1-3-1 in Belmont since '06 with problematic Animal Kingdom journey the lone off-board experience...
Union Rags is definitely a horse with talent and charisma. I'm torn between wanting him to manifest everything I think he's capable of and, well you know, not wanting him to do it this particular race. Haskin's right, that Champagne indicates so much of what he can do.

If he (or anybody else) puts it together, I hope that I'll Have Another's just that much better on the day (sometimes there's a difference between losing and not happening to win the race but putting in an effort that might've on any other day). The sport and the fans win if we get a Triple Crown or even a denied Crown and everybody brings their A game and goes home safe and sound. We don't get saved by a TC. We get saved when more people understand what they can see and feel in a horse race. Races like Curlin/Rags in the Belmont do that, and with history on the line, that many more people have the opportunity to feel the rush, whatever the outcome. Having my druthers, I'd like to cry like a big baby for a Triple Crown winner. Definitely won't bother trying to rein it in if that happens.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.