union rags

[HaloWishingwell]

I didnt like Union Rags for the Classics the moment I read his breeding. As for him being placed with the leaders early on, I welcome it. I'll Have Another has caught anyone who has been ahead of him all four races this year. Looks like your best chance is to strike late against him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think recent history shows that fresher horses run better at Belmont. I don't believe we've had a horse who ran in the Preakness win the Belmont since 2005. And before that, you have to go back to Point Given in 2001 to find a Belmont winner who even ran in the Preakness.

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I agree, but you could argue Curlin ran a winning race in the Belmont after winning the preakness

Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 2nd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

speaking of four years ago, is that when you had the bet vs dahoss that you lost? not sure the exact time frame....

Not much improvment here.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Not much improvment here.

i'll try not to lose sleep over your lack of approval.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 3rd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3

First Dude was 2nd in the Preakness.

[pba1817]

When I look at Union Rags efforts as the distances increased.. the diminishing figures and duller performances to me says, "Hey, I love 1 turn races".

He does get the french statue off his back and did run his best race ever over the surface, so he has a couple things going for him...

John Velasquez is a downgrade at this point. If you look since April 1st Leparoux has been a far better rider.

John is an anchor too. Especially if he takes a look at the turf course during the race. Might as well ease the horse at that point.

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 3rd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3

Steve nice analysis of the belmont in the xpressbet feature

[slotdirt]

Great stats, Steve. Wondering what the record in that time of Derby runners skipping the Preakness is. Just off the top of my noodle, there's Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, and Summer Bird, and Rags to Riches should half count. Even in the years where there were big upsetters since Point Given in '01 (i.e., Da'Tara, Ruler on Ice), horses like Denis of Cork, Bluegrass Cat, Dunkirk, and Stay Thirsty have gone Derby-Preakness and run second.

[declansharbor]

If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.

[Dylan Burke]

I'm taking Union Rags mainly because of JV getting the mount. No one knows his way around Belmont better than him, and I think he'll have him in a good spot throughout.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.

I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.

[pba1817]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPDZSy0MJrA

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Steve nice analysis of the belmont in the xpressbet feature

Thx.. Was certainly disappointed by Alpha coming out as I was gearing towards him. Will get an update filed tomorrow.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Great stats, Steve. Wondering what the record in that time of Derby runners skipping the Preakness is. Just off the top of my noodle, there's Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, and Summer Bird, and Rags to Riches should half count. Even in the years where there were big upsetters since Point Given in '01 (i.e., Da'Tara, Ruler on Ice), horses like Denis of Cork, Bluegrass Cat, Dunkirk, and Stay Thirsty have gone Derby-Preakness and run second.

Andromeda's Hero skipped and was the distant 2nd to Afleet Alex in '05...

Other Preakness skippers include:

Master of Hounds, Santiva, Nehro, Brilliant Speed last year;
Stately Victor, Ice Box, Make Music for Me in '10;
Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy in '09;
Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal in '08;
I'mawildandcrazyguy, Tiago in '07
Deputy Glitters, Bob and John, Steppenwolfer in '06
Perfect Drift in '02

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

remember when a hero came back at toga . 3/5 broke frome the gate and stopped..arggg.. you have alink to the express bet write up steve?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.

Originally Posted by Dylan Burke

I'm taking Union Rags mainly because of JV getting the mount. No one knows his way around Belmont better than him, and I think he'll have him in a good spot throughout.

Originally Posted by declansharbor

If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.

If you're on the Union Rags bandwagon, don't miss the archived Hour 1 today for Johnny's extensive comments on him (followed by Angel Cordero's thoughts and Steve Davidowitz' as well). Plus, Johnny relives Rags to Riches' 2007 Belmont win.

DIRECT LINK: http://tinyurl.com/7ajvamb

NOTEWORTHY: Velazquez 6/1-3-1 in Belmont since '06 with problematic Animal Kingdom journey the lone off-board experience...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

remember when a hero came back at toga . 3/5 broke frome the gate and stopped..arggg.. you have alink to the express bet write up steve?

Remember was well beaten by Flower Alley in the Jim Dandy & Travers.. The only graded stake he ever won was the Fred Hooper. I remember him being in Brass Hat's Donn.

XpressBet Belmont Wagering Guide: http://www.xpressbet.com/BSWG2012

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If you're on the Union Rags bandwagon, don't miss the archived Hour 1 today for Johnny's extensive comments on him (followed by Angel Cordero's thoughts and Steve Davidowitz' as well). Plus, Johnny relives Rags to Riches' 2007 Belmont win.

DIRECT LINK: http://tinyurl.com/7ajvamb

NOTEWORTHY: Velazquez 6/1-3-1 in Belmont since '06 with problematic Animal Kingdom journey the lone off-board experience...

Union Rags is definitely a horse with talent and charisma. I'm torn between wanting him to manifest everything I think he's capable of and, well you know, not wanting him to do it this particular race. Haskin's right, that Champagne indicates so much of what he can do.

If he (or anybody else) puts it together, I hope that I'll Have Another's just that much better on the day (sometimes there's a difference between losing and not happening to win the race but putting in an effort that might've on any other day). The sport and the fans win if we get a Triple Crown or even a denied Crown and everybody brings their A game and goes home safe and sound. We don't get saved by a TC. We get saved when more people understand what they can see and feel in a horse race. Races like Curlin/Rags in the Belmont do that, and with history on the line, that many more people have the opportunity to feel the rush, whatever the outcome. Having my druthers, I'd like to cry like a big baby for a Triple Crown winner. Definitely won't bother trying to rein it in if that happens.