Another genius Morning Line

[Calzone Lord]

This is the morning line for tomorrows 4th race at Presque Isle...

1 Ibedarn ML: 8-1
2 Rhyd Y Felin ML: 15-1
3 Silent Honor ML: 15-1
4 Miss Chelsea ML: 8-1
5 Speranza ML: 10-1
6 Barbarules ML: 7-2
7 Up to My Elbows ML: 3-1
8 Skip too Win ML: 5-2
9 Taylors Sweetheart ML: 15-1
10 Flowerming ML: 8-5
11 One Wild Kitty ML: 6-1
12 Shomeurteeth ML: 20-1

Earlier in the meet -- there was actually a race where the ML favorite was made 6/5, second choice 2/1, third choice 5/2, and 4th choice 3/1 in a field of six.

[herkhorse]

More importantly, what do you think of Osceola Gal?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

More importantly, what do you think of Osceola Gal?

Race 7 (5-4-7)

Race 8 (3-5-7-4)

[Calzone Lord]

This morning line adds up to 183.4 points...

1 Ibedarn ML: 8-1
2 Rhyd Y Felin ML: 15-1
3 Silent Honor ML: 15-1
4 Miss Chelsea ML: 8-1
5 Speranza ML: 10-1
6 Barbarules ML: 7-2
7 Up to My Elbows ML: 3-1
8 Skip too Win ML: 5-2
9 Taylors Sweetheart ML: 15-1
10 Flowerming ML: 8-5
11 One Wild Kitty ML: 6-1
12 Shomeurteeth ML: 20-1

I can only assume Katie has been given the role as the back-up ML maker.

If not her, someone who never made it past 4th grade and doesn't know basic math.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

In theory, doesn't this have to help a sharp bettor in multi-race wagers?

I'm not sure. I suppose people might be more likely to toss in all horses who are 7-to-2 or less on the morning line...so maybe.

That morning line shows a 46% win takeout.

Most of them are done using a 120 point model -- which always shows a 16.6% takeout.

120 points is usually the basis all right, but this one looks like it was done with no regard for a total.

Are we all sure that none of the listed horses are AE's or MTO's? It would look close to right if horses 9-12 are not going to draw in.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

120 points is usually the basis all right, but this one looks like it was done with no regard for a total.

Are we all sure that none of the listed horses are AE's or MTO's? It would look close to right if horses 9-12 are not going to draw in.

There's only one racing surface -- Tapeta.

No dirt or turf.

No AE's either.

There have been some similar whacked out morning lines the last couple of Saturdays.

I was told the track announcer normally makes them. He must have someone occasionally fill-in for him ... and they have absolutely no clue what they're doing.

FYFY:

1 Ibedarn ML: 12-1
2 Rhyd Y Felin ML: 20-1
3 Silent Honor ML: 20-1
4 Miss Chelsea ML: 12-1
5 Speranza ML: 15-1
6 Barbarules ML: 6-1
7 Up to My Elbows ML: 5-1
8 Skip too Win ML: 4-1
9 Taylors Sweetheart ML: 20-1
10 Flowerming ML: 3-1
11 One Wild Kitty ML: 10-1
12 Shomeurteeth ML: 30-1

Comes to 125-130 points, I think.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's the morning line for the 3rd race on Saturday ...

1 High Act
ML: 15-1
2 Big M J
ML: 5-2
3 Runnin Da Fences
ML: 8-5
4 Chief Complaint
ML: 2-1
5 He's Appealing
ML: 6-1
6 Furka Pass
ML: 3-1

This one has 146 points -- the win takeout is more than 31.5% for this one.

There have been a whole bunch of races like this the last few Saturdays.

Either the morning line maker can't do Kindergarten level math -- or they need to google how to make a morning line.

Seems to me you should point this out to the Racing Dept. there.

Nah. Leave it be.