Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They need to find out exactly what Velazquez wants to do on Union Rags and exactly what Paynter's jockey wants to do.

Everything else is nonsense and all the general opinions by anyone won't matter.

Assuming the track speed is playing close to par -- the cold hard facts are that you need to be close to the pace if the half is slower than 48 -- and relaxed patiently off of the pace if it is faster than 48.

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

Not sure what the plan will be on Paynter.

Talked pace today and went through the 6f times. They're telling as well with 1:12.4 & up the dividing line for the on/near/stalk winners.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Talked pace today and went through the 6f times. They're telling as well with 1:12.4 & up the dividing line for the on/near/stalk winners.

Yep.

Tactics and pace are always extremely huge factors in determining outcomes.

The ideal scenario for I'll Have Another is simply that every horse goes out and is ridden to run its best race by jockeys who aren't trying to ride or force the hand of other horses.

If that happens, and I'll Have Another is healthy and holding form, he's simply not going to lose.

The only two riders in a position to take I'll Have Another out of his game are the jocks on Paynter and Union Rags. Those two jocks are the humans who have the most control in this race.

They will be acting and I'll Have Another's jockey must be able to do a fair job of judging the pace and react.