Weird betting coup at Thistledown

Calzone Lord · #1 05-22-2012, 09:29 PM

This is very bizarre.

If it is a computer glitch -- it's an expensive one.

Very few people, if any, could get down for that much money with books at Thistle to make a profit out of that situation.

I know a guy who was leading owner year in and year out on the So. Cal circuit -- and I recall he told me he could beat Mountaineer for as much as $50,000 in a race with just one mysterious book. He was claiming horses like Repole of the West at one time though -- and I'm sure a book would only allow themselves to be slaughtered by him in a race at a small track because having him as a client was to their benefit.

It looks like computers though -- they're a menace with the way they move odds late. Bodemeister got crushed late by them in both the Ky Derby and Preakness this year. Sweetnorthernsaint got hammered to Ky Derby favortisim in the last mintue the one year. The Monarchos/Invisible Ink entry got creamed late in the Fla Derby. Many examples even into the teeth of massive sized win pools.

hailrazer · #2 05-23-2012, 11:26 AM

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

MaTH716 · #3 05-23-2012, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

Indian Charlie · #4 05-23-2012, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

Agreed. I'm sure there are details we are not privy to, but it seems likely that they had a wagering outlet that was not parimutuel based.

Kasept · #5 05-23-2012, 12:45 PM

More news, though no further clarity: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...-still-mystery

Calzone Lord · #6 05-23-2012, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

More news, though no further clarity: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...-still-mystery

Quote:

The bets drove the odds on the favorite up to 14-1 before a robotic wagering program targeted the favorite with an $8,359 win bet placed just before the race went off.

That makes it sound like the robotic worked perfectly. In less than 90 seconds, the Bot made a $8,359 win bet to drive the winners price from 14-to-1 to 5-to-1.

Calzone Lord · #7 05-23-2012, 06:50 PM

Here are some of the equine stars involved in this Ohio bred filly MSW race.

The 16.5 length winner as the longest shot on the board ran twice prior at Thistle -- she scorched a 29 Beyer in her debut and ran a 14 last time out despite chasing a 22 3/5 first quarter.

Here is the eventual 2nd place finisher and post time favorite in the betting: Only a 1-for-62 jockey, but she did surge out a 9 Beyer last time at a lower class level.

Here is the eventual 3rd place finisher: This one was able to secure a loose lead through a 23.20 opening quarter last time out and exploded with a 10 Beyer ... however, was jumping back up in class and retaining the 0-for-40 jockey.

Believe it or not ... this sensational performer did not finish last in the race: Note that the day she exploded and ran a Beyer of 1 -- she was able to press a trotter like pace of 28.60 and 54 flat going a mile. Seriously, that's a buggy race pace.

Calzone Lord · #8 05-23-2012, 06:54 PM

You know something, Rosie Day has a nice turf pedigree.

Dayjur out of a Trempolino mare.

I can't believe they haven't tried her on the grass yet...talk about mismanagement of such a fine animal.

Revidere · #9 05-25-2012, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Here are some of the equine stars involved in this Ohio bred filly MSW race.

The 16.5 length winner as the longest shot on the board ran twice prior at Thistle -- she scorched a 29 Beyer in her debut and ran a 14 last time out despite chasing a 22 3/5 first quarter.

Here is the eventual 2nd place finisher and post time favorite in the betting: Only a 1-for-62 jockey, but she did surge out a 9 Beyer last time at a lower class level.

Here is the eventual 3rd place finisher: This one was able to secure a loose lead through a 23.20 opening quarter last time out and exploded with a 10 Beyer ... however, was jumping back up in class and retaining the 0-for-40 jockey.

Believe it or not ... this sensational performer did not finish last in the race: Note that the day she exploded and ran a Beyer of 1 -- she was able to press a trotter like pace of 28.60 and 54 flat going a mile. Seriously, that's a buggy race pace.

Beyer said they may adjust that 10 figure.

blackthroatedwind · #10 05-23-2012, 12:46 PM

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

Scav · #11 05-23-2012, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

I'm pretty shocked that people are arguing that point with you. The offshore world is beyond sketchy after Black Monday, and only three sites are worthwhile right now, all based in a country that has no affliation at all with the US. And those sites have like max win around 1k for a track like Thistly Downs. And even those sites are slow pay when you do win.

blackthroatedwind · #12 05-23-2012, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I'm pretty shocked that people are arguing that point with you. The offshore world is beyond sketchy after Black Monday, and only three sites are worthwhile right now, all based in a country that has no affliation at all with the US. And even those sites are slow pay when you do win.

I've learned to not be shocked by just about anything I read on the internet.

hockey2315 · #13 05-23-2012, 12:55 PM

Agree with Andy and others that there's no way this was a betting coup. . . there are a bunch of reasons why it couldn't be.

It's interesting that these computer guys/batch bettors seem to be making a comeback. . . I hadn't been noticing them as much lately. Very similar to HFT algos in the financial markets - let's hope they don't get as out of control.

Travis Stone · #14 05-23-2012, 01:24 PM

While last minute and automated computer betting is frowned upon, it's hard to turn away business when it produces millions of dollars worth of handle. I know a lot of it still goes on. Heck, conditional wagering on almost all major ADW platforms allows for last minute wagering now. This particular incident can be anything from computer error to human error... but doubtful it shakes-out to be criminal.

cmorioles · #15 05-23-2012, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I'm pretty shocked that people are arguing that point with you. The offshore world is beyond sketchy after Black Monday, and only three sites are worthwhile right now, all based in a country that has no affliation at all with the US. And those sites have like max win around 1k for a track like Thistly Downs. And even those sites are slow pay when you do win.

It is pretty amazing you could get so much wrong in such a short post.

Alabama Stakes · #16 05-23-2012, 05:22 PM

since most local BM's all use internet sites in Costa Rico, things are back to business as usual. Feds didn't want people taking cash bets at bars, cobblers..etc..so they had to pack it up and find a new way to take action. Now, BM's give you a site and a password, along with a limit. you bet just like the old days. $42/$15/$7. are the limits on Win Place and show. 50-1 on exactas or triples , 100-1 on Doubles. you settle up on Tuesdays, and can get down for as much as you want.

Scav · #17 05-23-2012, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

It is pretty amazing you could get so much wrong in such a short post.

Do tell, please.

Indian Charlie · #18 05-23-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

Computers don't usually just 'glitch' for no readily apparent reason.

That, taken with the extreme unlikeliness that this happened with a horse that won by 16.5 lengths defies what you are saying about it not being a betting coup.

Perhaps, if it was a coup, the people behind this had the ability to wager with good old fashioned bookies that would pay full track odds.

They still do exist, believe it or not. Or perhaps they had a way to wager at a site not in the USA? I know in Mexico, for instance, I used to be able to wager and get track odds, without being tied in.

Knowing something about how computers work, I'd say it's nearly impossible that the computer glitched itself in such a highly specific and detailed way.

Humans had to be involved, and I don't care about what sort of nonsensical spin that the officials are eventually going to throw our way as explanation.

blackthroatedwind · #19 05-23-2012, 02:08 PM

You know computers better than I, and I really do respect your opinion on it, and don't dismiss it out of hand. On the other hand, I probably know more about bookmakers than most.

I agree this story feels like there may be many tentacles but the betting coup theory has, at best, a lot of holes.

blackthroatedwind · #20 05-23-2012, 02:11 PM

The whole story, in a way, reminds me of a great lesson I learned as a kid. Someone I knew, that bet a lot of money, and was extremely honorable, made a six horse $500 win/place round robin at Monticello one night. One of his horses ran second. The rest ran out. He lost, I believe, $30K.

A couple of days later he told me he wasn't going to pay. I was incredulous, as he always paid, and then he explained it to me. " The guy took a bet he couldn't pay. I knew it going in and always knew i had no bet, regardless of what he might have thought. " My friend was right. What if all six horses had won? My friend would have won millions.