Weird betting coup at Thistledown

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by tector

Please lets us know when you get "facts" from offshore books.

No one said it was successful. But if you put the known facts together, reasonable people (yes, I am afraid you are off this train already) can draw reasoned inferences.

Induction--a modern day miracle, I know.

Yeah, I'm unreasonable.

[Indian Charlie]

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

Another mere coincidence--you must disregard that fact. Please await facts from the offshore books, those will resolve the issue. Of course if those facts don't show up--is that even POSSIBLE?--then no conclusions of any kind can be drawn. Act as if nothing happened. And if happens again, that won't happen, either. In fact, it already didn't.

[pba1817]

Barney Curley?

[Calzone Lord]

This is very bizarre.

If it is a computer glitch -- it's an expensive one.

Very few people, if any, could get down for that much money with books at Thistle to make a profit out of that situation.

I know a guy who was leading owner year in and year out on the So. Cal circuit -- and I recall he told me he could beat Mountaineer for as much as $50,000 in a race with just one mysterious book. He was claiming horses like Repole of the West at one time though -- and I'm sure a book would only allow themselves to be slaughtered by him in a race at a small track because having him as a client was to their benefit.

It looks like computers though -- they're a menace with the way they move odds late. Bodemeister got crushed late by them in both the Ky Derby and Preakness this year. Sweetnorthernsaint got hammered to Ky Derby favortisim in the last mintue the one year. The Monarchos/Invisible Ink entry got creamed late in the Fla Derby. Many examples even into the teeth of massive sized win pools.

[hailrazer]

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

Agreed. I'm sure there are details we are not privy to, but it seems likely that they had a wagering outlet that was not parimutuel based.

[Kasept]

More news, though no further clarity: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...-still-mystery

[blackthroatedwind]

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....