2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Coup Verville]

With the assumption that there isn't much speed to go with Bodemeister, does a really fast workout like the one Cozzetti had today indicate their intent to contest the pace. Are they hoping (as most trainers probably are!!) that Bode is cooked after two great races in a short turn around? Or, am I over-thinking the situation?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Coup Verville

With the assumption that there isn't much speed to go with Bodemeister, does a really fast workout like the one Cozzetti had today indicate their intent to contest the pace. Are they hoping (as most trainers probably are!!) that Bode is cooked after two great races in a short turn around? Or, am I over-thinking the situation?

You're over thinking the situation. Cozzetti would have to be put to an all out drive to keep up with Bodemeister.

Also, Dale Romans almost always works his horses quickly.

[Coup Verville]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're over thinking the situation. Cozzetti would have to be put to an all out drive to keep up with Bodemeister.

Also, Dale Romans almost always works his horses quickly.

Since posting, I went to Cozzetti's PPs and noticed that he broke his maiden at CD on a wet track. And, apparently it was wet there this morning.

With that being said, who is the logical "pressure" on Bode. I would have to assume with Bode's situation, somebody is sending their horse after him to see what he's got left.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Coup Verville

Since posting, I went to Cozzetti's PPs and noticed that he broke his maiden at CD on a wet track. And, apparently it was wet there this morning.

With that being said, who is the logical "pressure" on Bode. I would have to assume with Bode's situation, somebody is sending their horse after him to see what he's got left.

Why? I'm sure that some of the connections would just be thrilled to earn a check and get a Graded placing. Why send and try to run with Bode, it's almost a guaranteed suicide mission for the horse that goes and all it does is soften up Bode for someone else to pick up the pieces.

[Coup Verville]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Why? I'm sure that some of the connections would just be thrilled to earn a check and get a Graded placing. Why send and try to run with Bode, it's almost a guaranteed suicide mission for the horse that goes and all it does is soften up Bode for someone else to pick up the pieces.

It's a good point, I was more inquiring that stating an opinion. But, wouldn't it make sense not to let Bode get out there by himself?

[slotdirt]

I'd much rather let Bode do his thing and try to hang on for a piece than to pressure him and ensure my horse finishes 10th.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'd much rather let Bode do his thing and try to hang on for a piece than to pressure him and ensure my horse finishes 10th.

We all saw how well that strategy works in the Turf Classic.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Coup Verville

It's a good point, I was more inquiring that stating an opinion. But, wouldn't it make sense not to let Bode get out there by himself?

Depends on which way you are looking at it. As a gambler, I don't want to take Bode at extremely short odds regardless of the pace scenario, so based on the probable set-up I would use Bode as a single in any type of pick 3 or pick 4 and try to find value somewhere else.

As a horse owner, you almost have to think that if Bode runs again like he did two weeks ago, everyone is running for second anyway.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Why? I'm sure that some of the connections would just be thrilled to earn a check and get a Graded placing. Why send and try to run with Bode, it's almost a guaranteed suicide mission for the horse that goes and all it does is soften up Bode for someone else to pick up the pieces.

If you have a horse whose best asset is speed the worst thing you can do is to take them back as you are taking away their most powerful asset. IMO you are more likely to finish worse when you take a speed horse off the pace because you are afraid of another speed horse. Look how well Right to Vote ran on a very fast pace in the Peter Pan, doubt he gets first or second if he is taken off the pace regardless of how much speed there is in the race.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by pointman

If you have a horse whose best asset is speed the worst thing you can do is to take them back as you are taking away their most powerful asset. IMO you are more likely to finish worse when you take a speed horse off the pace because you are afraid of another speed horse. Look how well Right to Vote ran on a very fast pace in the Peter Pan, doubt he gets first or second if he is taken off the pace regardless of how much speed there is in the race.

Nick I agree with you. The point that was trying to get across was that if there is no real other speed horses in the race, why sacrifice your own horse's chance by making him do something he usually doesn't do? Basically jumping on the grenade for the rest of the field so Bode doesn't get a soft easy lead.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Nick I agree with you. The point that was trying to get across was that if there is no real other speed horses in the race, why sacrifice your own horse's chance by making him do something he usually doesn't do? Basically jumping on the grenade for the rest of the field so Bode doesn't get a soft easy lead.

My bad, I had not looked at the PP's yet.