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#1
05-08-2012, 08:15 AM
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Ground closed by winner in the Derby since '90
I'll Have Another closed 8 lengths according to the result charts.
Here is the amount of ground past winners have closed in there KY Derby wins -- and how they ran next time out. Wire-to-wire to less than 5 lengths closed * War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60 * Go For Gin (head) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out. * Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80 * Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40 * Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner. * Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win. * Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40 * Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down. * Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win. Total next-out record of horses who closed less than 5 lengths in Derby victory. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten next time out -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70 and win percentage is 66.7% 5 lengths closed to 10 lengths closed * Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) 2nd at 2/1 in Preakness. * Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness. * Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00 * Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds Total Next out record: 1-for-4 (25% wins) avg win price of $7.00 More than 10 lengths closed * Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness. * Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness * Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds. * Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness. * Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness * Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness * Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again * Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds. * Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds. None of the nine horse won next out. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites. Grindstone did not race again. Simple logic to this trend is that the Derby typically has more pace than the Preakness -- and is run at a slightly longer distance. If a horse can handle the Derby pace and still win...he's almost entirely free of red-flags in the Preakness. If a horse wins the Derby with a late rally ... he's probably not going to get that kind of setup unless someone decides to enter a Big Drama or Flying First Class. 
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#7
05-08-2012, 10:17 AM
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Thanks.
Even by Kentucky Derby standards -- this years was a very brutal race shape numbers wise. It was basically a one-mile horse race with a 2 furlong gallop-out. You could stop the tape at the quarter pole, because a decent fresh trotter from the Meadowlands probably would have split that field late. The Monarchos year was a similar race-shape numbers wise. Congaree opened up a length lead after a mile and quit in the stretch. Point Given was always close to the blistering pace -- he was also extremely wide on both turns and was 2nd after a mile. Point Given flat stopped in the stretch. The Giacomo year was a similar race-shape numbers wise. Bellamy Road was 4-wide on both turns chasing a rabbit and was head-and-head for the lead after a mile was completed. He stopped late. Afleet Alex was bumped around a bit and made a huge mid backstretch move weaving through the pack to get right on Bellamy Road's flank turning for home. He rushed up to Closing Argument but couldn't outfinish him. The Strike The Gold year (before my time)...Sea Cadet was first after a mile and Corporate Report and a very wide Hansel are 2nd and 3rd after a mile. That trio ended up fading to 8th, 9th, and 10th in the final quarter. Sea Cadet skips the Preakness -- but Hansel and Corporate Report both go. Hansel wins by 7 lengths at 9/1 odds. Corporate Report is a clear 2nd at 11/1 odds. Strike The Gold is nowhere. Hansel wins the Belmont, Corporate Report wins the Travers. Sea Cadet wins 3 Grade 1 dirt routes as a 4-year-old. Looking back -- If you turn the tape off after a mile -- it's Congaree and Point Given who look the two best horses. It's Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex who run the two most impressive races. It's Hansel, Sea Cadet, and Corporate Report who do the best running. Strike The Gold, Giacomo, and Monarchos are dominating the part of the race where everyone is basically just galloping out. The better horses are all stopping. That didn't happen this year. The closers ran 3rd and 4th and speed didn't totally unravel... but you still have to trust the numbers and pretend the quarter pole was the finish line. Because that last quarter mile was just a glorified gallop-out. I like Bodemeister's race, I like Hansen's race. Trinniberg's sire was a badly fading 17th in the '07 Kentucky Derby and came back and won the Woody Stevens at 8/1 odds next out. I like Trinniberg cutting back to a sprint. The other horse I really want is Daddy Long Legs. I can't wait to bet him on grass or synth. The horses who did all the running in the stretch are play againsts. I know I beat a dead horse...but that's basically my final thoughts on this race.
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#9
05-08-2012, 10:49 AM
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The sample for I'll Have Another's category is somewhat under-represented with just 4 horses. 2 of those arguably can be tossed. Super Saver, who until the Preakness, had never finished off the board, never ran a decent race in 3 subsequent tries and was retired. Lil E. Tee bled severely and was found to have a bone chip after the Preakness, was gone for about 8 months, finally reappearing in top form as a 4yo.
That leaves Animal Kingdom and Real Quiet, both of whom ran well in the Preakness. Furthermore, I'll Have Another's running style is more similar to several in the first group. It will be interesting to see how much weight his connections place on the fact that he settled a bit further back than usual in the Derby and ended up winning. Will they let the horse place himself in the early going at Pimlico, or will they wrangle him back if he's too keen from the gate?
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#13
05-08-2012, 03:46 PM
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Trinniberg's sire was a badly fading 17th in the '07 Kentucky Derby and came back and won the Woody Stevens at 8/1 odds next out. I like Trinniberg cutting back to a sprint. The other horse I really want is Daddy Long Legs. I can't wait to bet him on grass or synth. The horses who did all the running in the stretch are play againsts.
I just heard that Trinniberg may run in the Preakness.....what a d'bag!!
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