Dullahan

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

the race I saw the simple fact was Trinniberg couldn't keep up with Bodemeister, he did it on his own...the pace. I don't care what anyone said afterwards, it was no factor in the race. No Trinniberg, same pace for Bodemeister as Hansen and Take Charge Indy run closer to Bodemeister to keep him from getting away and exact same fractions occur. Exact.

It's the simple narrative that is easy to go to in this race and I feel it doesn't fit what happened.

This notion that because Mike Smith says he was within himself means that Trinniberg not being there wouldn't have mattered is NONSENSE.

If Trinniberg is not in the race, Bodemeister does not have to go 45 and 1/5 to get a clear lead, and he doesn't have to shade 1:10 to stay in front. Take Trinniberg out and he would have had a comfortable lead over Hansen going a bit slower at each point of call.

When speed horses get clear leads, that does not mean that they suddenly lose any excuse for losing. Using that ridiculously flawed logic, you will hold losing against a speed horse with complete disregard for the pace they set.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

This notion that because Mike Smith says he was within himself means that Trinniberg not being there wouldn't have mattered is NONSENSE.

If Trinniberg is not in the race, Bodemeister does not have to go 45 and 1/5 to get a clear lead, and he doesn't have to shade 1:10 to stay in front. Take Trinniberg out and he would have had a comfortable lead over Hansen going a bit slower at each point of call.

When speed horses get clear leads, that does not mean that they suddenly lose any excuse for losing. Using that ridiculously flawed logic, you will hold losing against a speed horse with complete disregard for the pace they set.

that's your narrative and that's fine. I have a different one. You act like if Trinniberg isn't in the race you have a 100 percent clear idea of what happens in that race. You simply have your opinion that's all. My opinion is that Bodemeister likely sets a fast pace in that race regardless of the other animals. I think it's just as likely to opine that the reason Hansen was going slower was the fact that Trinniberg was in the race. Bodemeister lost to Creative Cause when not on the lead and rank and challenged. He set a very fast pace in Arkansas and blew them out. He did the same thing yesterday and beat Creative Cause. Perhaps it was a tad fast, I don't know. He beat 18 horses.

Tell me how slow Bodemeister's pace was in Arkansas again. It wasn't. My opinion is if Smith strangles the life out of the horse to let Trinniberg get a clear lead is useless. The horse is fast, he set very fast fractions in Arkansas. Of course the pace affected him...it was the pace, not Trinniberg that affected him. I simply cannot concede that everyone here knows so much that they are 100 percent sure what he runs pace wise if Trinniberg isn't there. I dont' believe any of you. the horse is fast.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

You act like if Trinniberg isn't in the race you have a 100 percent clear idea of what happens in that race.

Bodemeister set a very slow pace on the lead in his win 3 starts back. He's not a run-off.

Mike Smith threw crosses at him coming out of the gate and sent him -- Trinniberg was under a hammerlock hold -- and they still ran head and head through a 22 1/5th opening quarter.

Anyone who thinks Bodemeister wouldn't have romped without Trinniberg in the race is seriously and has a very poor understanding of very, very, very basic handicapping.

[declansharbor]

Who's to say that w/o Trinniberg in the race, that M. Smith wouldnt've tried to harness Bodemeister on the front end with slower fractions, knowing he'd still be clear with the half in let's say 47 n change??

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Who's to say that w/o Trinniberg in the race, that M. Smith wouldnt've tried to harness Bodemeister on the front end with slower fractions, knowing he'd still be clear with the half in let's say 47 n change??

Bodemeister would have been loose on an unpressured lead and just been on cruise control with no one eye-balling him or breathing on him.

Without Trinniberg in the race, Bodemeister would have won by at least 5 lengths and done so under no urging at all. I can't believe anyone could have even a morsel of doubt about that.

If you do, for starters, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ga_hw...feature=relmfu

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Bodemeister would have been loose on an unpressured lead and just been on cruise control with no one eye-balling him or breathing on him.

Without Trinniberg in the race, Bodemeister would have won by at least 5 lengths and done so under no urging at all. I can't believe anyone could have even a morsel of doubt about that.

If you do, for starters, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ga_hw...feature=relmfu

I actually agree with you that he would've won with ease w/o Trinniberg.

I'm just saying that it is not out of the realm of possibility that M Smith would've looked back and seen Hansen & TCI so far behind his mount that he would maybe feel his horse was running off and that he would feel the need to pull on the reigns in the backstretch to save some gas for that extra furlong.

Monday morning quarterback stuff, i know. Just a question i was running through my head earlier is all. I see both sides of the 'argument'.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I actually agree with you that he would've won with ease w/o Trinniberg.

I'm just saying that it is not out of the realm of possibility that M Smith would've looked back and seen Hansen & TCI so far behind his mount that he would maybe feel his horse was running off and that he would feel the need to pull on the reigns in the backstretch to save some gas for that extra furlong.

Monday morning quarterback stuff, i know. Just a question i was running through my head earlier is all. I see both sides of the 'argument'.

Horses like Bodemeister, Trinniberg, and Hansen are super competitive speed horses.

They are too gallant and competitive to willingly let other horses run in front of them.

When they do get an unpressured early lead -- they simply relax and run peak performances.

Bodemeister could go 49 on the lead as long as he doesn't have to work hard for it and isn't being challenged for it.

Watch the four meetings between Dr. Fager and Damascus.

Dr. Fager easily beats Damascus in the first and third meeting -- both times when Damascus had no rabbit. Damascus beat the piss out of Dr. Fager in the 2nd and 4th meeting ... both times when he had a rabbit spritner entered.