5/5: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby Day)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The two were a combined 16 wins from 39 starts, and save TC's maiden breaker, every single one of them occurred on the lead - neither of them have ever passed a horse (to be fair, Get Stormy laid 2nd within a length to the half on one or two occasions).

The notion that both of these jocks would decide to take back, on one of racing's biggest days, certainly needs to be construed.

It's difficult not to sound like sour grapes, but it gives the sport another black eye without an explanation - you know, they send reporters on horseback to interview the winner, why not send one to find out why Ramon and Raffie stiffed their mounts?

I had a houseful of people, many not involved with the game, but one friend had shown interest in learning basic handicapping. He asked me why Little Mike was going off at 12-1 when he looked like he could legitimately win.. I explained the need for the other 2 to need the lead as well, and that the 3 of them would cook themselves, hence the value price, and why horses that come from off the pace were considered more likely.

He bet, against the 1, then ask why they didn't go, shook his head and said, "this is why I don't go to the track - these jocks are in cahoots with each other - Dominguez and Bejarano had money on the 1"

If that's the public perception, and certainly not an illogical conclusion to draw, why would the stewards not investigate - or at least sit them down for an explanation? Bejarano can probably get away with saying TC didn't care for the looser footing, Dominguez, not so much - he has made the lead in all but 2 of starts over a turf course that was graded as "other than firm"

It was embarrassing, and as much as I love Dominguez, he has watched more horses cruise on easy leads over the last few years while rating his own horse than any rider I can imagine.

I was a bit more annoyed that Bejarano didn't press on with it when Turbo Compressor came out of the gate so quickly. Wrangling him back was just very foolish. This is a horse that has never rated effectively. Get Stormy at least had one positive race where he rated (Shadwell Turf MIle) even though that race is a bit difficult to trust.

Dale Romans has absolutely tortured me on big event days at CD going back to last Derby day. Doug called it well in advance, Dale's horses simply cannot be tossed on big days at CD. Thank God the BC is at SA.

[jms62]

I totally dismissed Little Mike and Get Stormy and probably needed ALL to get Little Mike myself... As far as handing out punishment for how the race was run is beyond absurd. Jocks and trainers strategize how they will run based upon the other horses in the race. I can understand how Get Strormy didn't battle for the lead against Little Mike who has shown that the ONLY WAY he can win is on the lead. They simply let him slip away and Jersey Joe who gets lambasted quite a bit did a hell of a job. Kudos to him and it is another 3 out of 4 in the P4 for me Derby day.... Wait till next year.

[Kasept]

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

Which brings up another question that how in a 20 horse field can the longest horses be less then 60-1 ? Is it computer alogorithm betting that is doing this? How can Liason in post 20 be only 56-1?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by jms62

Which brings up another question that how in a 20 horse field can the longest horses be less then 60-1 ? Is it computer alogorithm betting that is doing this? How can Liason in post 20 be only 56-1?

The Goat.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

I am guessing it was from the extra $ in the pools from people that looked at the race (like Rudeboylvis's friend) and saw all the 1 1 1 1's and figured he was a good bet.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

I'm amazed that 10 pinheads let Bravo walk the dog like that. Did they really think a horse of that quality would not come back to them if left uncontested? I understand not wanting to sacrifice your horse, but I don't get giving your horse an opportunity to do no better than second to avoid it.

There were many killers for me this weekend but none more than that race.