DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in..

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Pyro ran in the BG over poly, not dirt.

Otherwise, they are very similar. Both beat very suspect competition, and did it unimpressively in pretty slow times.

I don't think he'll be a huge longshot either. He's sort of a hype horse, which will mean he gets overbet relative to his chances of winning.

And yeah, I watched his win over TCI. What am I looking for that explains his popularity and overhype?

Were you being facetious?

He's not really similar to Pyro at all.

Pyro was a very good 2YO who went into his 3YO season with a ton of fanfare. His two wins at FG to begin the year were wildly overrated because it seemed like he had been able to rally against negative pace setups when he was really just dominating slow horses.

El Padrino was a maiden winner who narrowly picked up a G2 placing as a 2YO. His pair of wins in the alw race and the Risen Star are more impressive than Pyro's pair of victories early in 2008. His wide trip off a very slow pace on a track that was kind to speed at GP is a better race than it looks on paper in my opinion.

I try not to read into his work too much because I wouldn't just about any other day of the year. But, he is going to be a longshot off a :53 and change drill at Palm Meadows, since there are so many workout darlings being raved about right now.