Ky Derby Factoids.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

No horse making his route debut has ever won the derby.

Many horses have won the Kentucky Derby without ever having run beyond 6 furlongs prior.

The filly Regret and the maiden Sir Barton among them.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Many horses have won the Kentucky Derby without ever having run beyond 6 furlongs prior.

The filly Regret and the maiden Sir Barton among them.

Of course that was my impromptu response given this year's "oddity" as it were. I honestly don't recall a starter fitting the bill in the last 30 years.

As unlikely as it seems I'm not so inclined to completely dismiss Trinniberg. If I told you now the half mile was run in 48 flat with him on the lead what would be his chances?

[slotdirt]

Before 2011, anybody want to hazard a guess at the last Derby with an opening half 48 seconds or slower? I think the answer to that question should pretty much rule out the chances that Trinniberg will be going 48 flat on the lead.

[Port Conway Lane]

Of course it would. The question is what if.

[Port Conway Lane]

It would be a monumental misjudgement of pace on the part of 3 jockeys (maybe more).

[slotdirt]

Well, we're talking about something that has happened twice since 1970 (because I got tired of looking at charts though now that I look at it, it also happened in 1969). Based on the pace of the various preps and the chances of a filled starting gate, I'd say the chances of Trinniberg waltzing along going 48 and change are somewhere between slim and none. And even if he did, he's a freaking son of Teuflesberg (wilted after a 46.1 half in 2007) whose offspring have an average winning distance of 5.78f (!!!). The other sires with AWD's under 7f in the field are Dixie Union (Union Rags), Even the Score (Dullahan), Indian Charlie (Liaison), Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit), and Proud Citizen (Went the Day Well and Mark Valeski).

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, we're talking about something that has happened twice since 1970 (because I got tired of looking at charts though now that I look at it, it also happened in 1969). Based on the pace of the various preps and the chances of a filled starting gate, I'd say the chances of Trinniberg waltzing along going 48 and change are somewhere between slim and none. And even if he did, he's a freaking son of Teuflesberg (wilted after a 46.1 half in 2007) whose offspring have an average winning distance of 5.78f (!!!). The other sires with AWD's under 7f in the field are Dixie Union (Union Rags), Even the Score (Dullahan), Indian Charlie (Liaison), Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit), and Proud Citizen (Went the Day Well and Mark Valeski).

I understand and that's why I asked the question. It seems inconceivable and this thread has everything to do with taking a microscopic look at what has happened in the last 140 or so runnings of a race run once a year and why based on the history of this one race the chances of this year's horses hinge on that history.

In 1985 Chiefs Crown had the look of a champion and Spend A Buck had romped through New Jersey unchallenged early on in his races. However the assumption was made that in the Derby he would face a stiffer pace from Eternal Prince and the race was set up for CC to pounce at will. After the race the question most were asking is what happened to Eternal Prince.

Anyway enough about The pace. I'm sure there are other favorite "factoids".

BTW what were the results of the two 48 flat races you found ?

[slotdirt]

Well, last year Shackleford set the pace and ended up an honest fourth. In 1980, pacesetter Rockhill Native faded to fifth in a field of 13. In 1969, Ocean Roar ended up finishing over 20 lengths behind winner Majestic Prince.

[Thunder Gulch]

If the half is 48, Hansen and Bodemeister will still drown Trinniberg at the quarter pole.

[Merlinsky]

What Kentucky Derby winners won the Derby after their sire died? Secretariat (Bold Ruler); Strike the Gold (Alydar); Fusaichi Pegasus (Mr. Prospector); Super Saver (Maria's Mon). Any others?

Union Rags and Liaison are a couple that could be added to this sort of list. I feel like every so often there were highly regarded horses going in with that trivia as part of their bio, but they failed to win one for the dearly departed old man.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

If I told you now the half mile was run in 48 flat with him on the lead what would be his chances?

0.00% percent.

He's not that type of horse. Even a horse like Big Drama was far better suited to being a route speed than he is.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

0.00% percent.

He's not that type of horse. Even a horse like Big Drama was far better suited to being a route speed than he is.

Fair enough. I should send you my two bucks.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Fair enough. I should send you my two bucks.

Bisnath Parboo's career ROI in route races is $1.06 ... he's magic with sprinters -- especially speed-sprinters.

He radically improves the early speed of horses he gets.

Save your stab bet for the next Parboo horse you encouter who moves into his barn for the first time and hasn't quite been able to make a lead and has been fading late. That type of horse will show markedly improved speed in the first quarter and win at a price for you.