Santa Anita showvivor March 2nd

[Dunbar]

thanks, IK. I really don't want to screw up today. Pending scratch info, I'm either going with Lady Ten in 6-horse 1st race or Let's Get Crackin' in 5-horse 2nd race. Either way, I won't have to sweat long!

If I make it through today, we'll see whether a $3.40 show payoff is worth anything in the tiebreaker.

--Dunbar
(StLiam21)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

thanks, IK. I really don't want to screw up today. Pending scratch info, I'm either going with Lady Ten in 6-horse 1st race or Let's Get Crackin' in 5-horse 2nd race. Either way, I won't have to sweat long!

Guess again. I switched from Lady Ten to Meadow Road (4th race) at the last minute.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Guess again. I switched from Lady Ten to Meadow Road (4th race) at the last minute.

Lady Ten finished 2nd. I could have been home free already!

Oddly, of the 3 horses I was struggling to make my choice from, only 1 other person chose any of them:

3 people selected #04 Gun Boat in race 2
2 people selected #02 Meadow Road in race 4
1 person selected #02 Bourbon Bay in race 9
1 person selected #05 Soi Phet in race 8
1 person selected #04 Deity in race 3

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Lady Ten finished 2nd. I could have been home free already!

Oddly, of the 3 horses I was struggling to make my choice from, only 1 other person chose any of them:

3 people selected #04 Gun Boat in race 2
2 people selected #02 Meadow Road in race 4
1 person selected #02 Bourbon Bay in race 9
1 person selected #05 Soi Phet in race 8
1 person selected #04 Deity in race 3

--Dunbar

Home free, good luck bud....

[my miss storm cat]

Whoa awesome run my friend.

So what happens now? Who wins out of the 8 left?

Congratulations!

Kudos to Dunbar! Great job.

[bigrun]

Best of luck db, what's the tie breaker?...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Whoa awesome run my friend.

So what happens now? Who wins out of the 8 left?

Congratulations!

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

Whatever the outcome, very well done.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

Good run db, wish you the best....Is there only one winner?...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

hmm...I wrote that on Apr 22. I guess my current definition of "soon" is 2+ weeks. Here are the stats...

I made 31 picks in the Showvivor contest. 5 of them were in races with no show betting. So that left 26 successful show bets.

PARLAY
A $100 parlay would have ended up growing to $1899, with another $9.05 in fractional dollar accumulation. (for example, my bet on the 3rd day was $195 and the $2.10 payoff returned $204.75. I "pocketed" the 75c and bet $204 on the 4th day.) The "growth" to $1899+$9.05 assumes that my bets wouldn't have affected the payoff.

Making 19 times your money is nothing to sniff at. Too bad I didn't make a single real bet on any of those picks.

FLAT BET
My ROI for a $2 bet was $2.26, a +13% return. My total return on the 26 show bets was $58.80, a profit of $6.80. $100 flat bets would have netted $340.

That's all pretty cool, but I don't have good records of the previous 7 Showvivor/Show Me The Money contests I've entered. I clearly have 7 losses in there, so that's -$14. I'm pretty sure I didn't accumulate enough winning bets in the previous 7 to have overcome the remaining $14-$6.80 = $7.20 of losses.

--Dunbar