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[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Balletto

I think there's a chance of a lot to lose, stud fee wise if the run him next year. But, with that said, I think they owe it to the horse to give him one more year to prove his mettle.

I've never been a fan of his but let me go on record to say that he proved a lot to me yesterday, talent-wise. He's a VERY good 3 yo... over-hyped and overrated? Yes, at this time. Given another year, he may prove himself a serious contender for one of the best..

I'd also like to point out that people are jumping on the jock for making his move too early. I honestly believe the connections wanted a champion and awe inspiring performance. I think they thought there would be a lot of day light between him and the field... my guess is... the race was executed just as it was planned... but they didnt count on Bernardini not being the best horse in the field.

I don't see there being much to lose by running Bernardini next year because, if he does run, he will be even better than he was this year. I would expect him to put up terrific performances, win or lose. He'll get fine broodmares no matter what - he's a spectacular speciman, beautifully bred and extraordinarily talented -I'm not worried about that, even if at this point Bernardini couldn't command what he would have had he won yesterday. I think the Sheikh's reputation is on the line, in a way. He prides himself on being a sportsman and that image would be shattered forever if Bernardini is retired. I don't know that he cares about that, though. I'm sure he loves this horse and is very proud of him -then he should want to see Bernardini fulfill his potential on the track. He's got years to be a sire, only a short while to be a racehorse.

Originally Posted by Betsy

I don't see there being much to lose by running Bernardini next year because, if he does run, he will be even better than he was this year. I would expect him to put up terrific performances, win or lose. He'll get fine broodmares no matter what - he's a spectacular speciman, beautifully bred and extraordinarily talented -I'm not worried about that, even if at this point Bernardini couldn't command what he would have had he won yesterday. I think the Sheikh's reputation is on the line, in a way. He prides himself on being a sportsman and that image would be shattered forever if Bernardini is retired. I don't know that he cares about that, though. I'm sure he loves this horse and is very proud of him -then he should want to see Bernardini fulfill his potential on the track. He's got years to be a sire, only a short while to be a racehorse.

Just because he should improve next year doesnt mean he will. And add possible injuries and other unforseen circumstances and you have a real crap shoot. His dam was a better 2 year old and his sister was fragile. There's a lot of variables you should take into account.

If he's retired tomorrow, he's almost guaranteed the best mares in the world. If he races unsuccessfully next year or is injured, there will be another "hype" runner to take some of those mares away. There always is...

Would I like to see him race next year? Absolutely. Would I blame the connections for making a shrewd business decision... no.

[Danzig]

i don't think he comes back, not when they have discreet cat. he seems there banner carrier next year.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Balletto

Just because he should improve next year doesnt mean he will. And add possible injuries and other unforseen circumstances and you have a real crap shoot. His dam was a better 2 year old and his sister was fragile. There's a lot of variables you should take into account.

If he's retired tomorrow, he's almost guaranteed the best mares in the world. If he races unsuccessfully next year or is injured, there will be another "hype" runner to take some of those mares away. There always is...

Would I like to see him race next year? Absolutely. Would I blame the connections for making a shrewd business decision... no.

I still do not want to live with the "what if's" - this is racing. If the Sheikh is too afraid to race, he shouldn't be in the business. He should have more faith in his horse that he could come back and be even better next year -IMO, that is a risk worth taking, and I don't see it as a risk. Bernardini is already extremely good - the odds on him not making the leap from 3 to 4 and being better are slight.

I understand your points, but if the Sheikh retires him (presumably against the recommendation of Albertrani, etc...), I will be devastated and I would blame him.

[Danzig]

he could (altho i think this is NOT going to happen) run bernardini again this year, and try to go out a winner. obviously the chances of this happening are along the lines of not in a million years...

but maybe he'll be so po'd at losing to invasor he'll want another go at him.

[skippy3481]

You would be devasted. How devestated would you be if the horse gets seriously hurt next year and for some reason can't be a stud. How would you feel then? Its a lose lose either way. If you run him you run the risk of him getting hurt and possibly not being a stud. If you retire him, you take away much of the risk but you don't get to see him run. It's very simple. If your in it for the prestige you run him next year. If your in this to make money, you retire him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

You would be devasted. How devestated would you be if the horse gets seriously hurt next year and for some reason can't be a stud. How would you feel then? Its a lose lose either way. If you run him you run the risk of him getting hurt and possibly not being a stud. If you retire him, you take away much of the risk but you don't get to see him run. It's very simple. If your in it for the prestige you run him next year. If your in this to make money, you retire him.

Or they just pay out $5 million for insurance on him next year and they are covered either way. It's not like they can't afford it.

[skippy3481]

Insurance would be astronmical, I'm sure more then he would win in any races and it still doesn't protect the fact that you won't have have as a stallion.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

You would be devasted. How devestated would you be if the horse gets seriously hurt next year and for some reason can't be a stud. How would you feel then? Its a lose lose either way. If you run him you run the risk of him getting hurt and possibly not being a stud. If you retire him, you take away much of the risk but you don't get to see him run. It's very simple. If your in it for the prestige you run him next year. If your in this to make money, you retire him.

What to do then? Everytime a promising horse runs big, retire him in case he gets hurt? I'd prefer to take my chances that Bernardini emerge unscathed next year so that he have the opportunity to fulfill his potential.

Originally Posted by Betsy

What to do then? Everytime a promising horse runs big, retire him in case he gets hurt? I'd prefer to take my chances that Bernardini emerge unscathed next year so that he have the opportunity to fulfill his potential.

Its a matter of breeding economics... the question arises, what would Bernardini have to do next year to make him even more valuable than he is at this moment? It would have to be a hell of a campaign... a Mineshaft like effort. He may have the talent, but he may not. Strike while the iron is hot.

And people dont put enough thought behind how hard it is to lose a horse as an owner. The connections lost their golden boy young in Dubai Millenum... this is probably the first horse that can be equated to him. Im sure that plays a role in treating this horse a little differently than most... and being that much more protective.