Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

So after a smashing performance like that does that make him a cinch for the Derby just like Bellamy Road was?

I don't think they are all that similar at all.

[Calzone Lord]

Highest last out Beyer entering the Kentucky Derby:

2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarcharch
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie) <Eskendreya injured>
2009: Dunkirk <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Rockamundo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)

Top last-out figure Derby horses who entered the race with less than five career starts:

Big Brown (3)
Curlin (3)
Dunkirk (3) <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
Bodemeister (4)
Indian Charlie (4)

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Highest last out Beyer entering the Kentucky Derby:

2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarcharch
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie) <Eskendreya injured>
2009: Dunkirk <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Rockamundo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)

Top last-out figure Derby horses who entered the race with less than five career starts:

Big Brown (3)
Curlin (3)
Dunkirk (3) <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
Bodemeister (4)
Indian Charlie (4)

So for 20 years since Beyer went mainstream, if you take 20 last out highest + 3 ties, 23 horses x $2 = $46 invested and 6 winners with a return of $167. Who says Beyers aren't the way to go?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

So for 20 years since Beyer went mainstream, if you take 20 last out highest + 3 ties, 23 horses x $2 = $46 invested and 6 winners with a return of $167. Who says Beyers aren't the way to go?

The extremely profitable success of a last-out top figure horses in the Derby is skewed because of War Emblem and Charismatic...both were big upset winners of super-fast run minor preps in their final Derby start.

War Emblem freaked in the Illi Derby and Charismatic freaked in the Lexington...both were ignored in the Derby betting because they looked like one-race wonders and because the one big race was in a minor Derby prep.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The extremely profitable success of a last-out top figure horses in the Derby is skewed because of War Emblem and Charismatic...both were big upset winners of super-fast run minor preps in their final Derby start.

War Emblem freaked in the Illi Derby and Charismatic freaked in the Lexington...both were ignored in the Derby betting because they looked like one-race wonders and because the one big race was in a minor Derby prep.

Oh I get that, but even if you throw them both out, it's profitable. Throw one out and you more than double your money. Just making the point that in the toughest race in the world to handicap, don't forget to use the tool many experienced handicappers are dismissing as being an overused factor. If you are forced to bet Sinister Minister, Devil May Care, and Rockamundo, you get to include the War Emblem's and Charismatic.

Disregarding odds, you have a wildly positive impact value. Without taking the time to look it up, we're probably talking 350 starters and 20 winners. 23 top Beyers gets 6 wins. The other 325+ get 14 wins.

Now the downside is only one of the last 10, and that was the shortest priced one of the set.

[ADJMK]

So I guess Bode is the bet if he is 15-1 or higher

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

So I guess Bode is the bet if he is 15-1 or higher

How is he higher then 5-1, 7-1 at max?