Baffert jockeys' strategy in the Arkansas Derby.

[Seattleallstar]

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

[Calzone Lord]

Taking back at least one of them isn't the worst idea.

Both horses have been used away from the gates only to be rated 60 yards later. Bejarano has been doing this with all of Baffert's runners.

Secret Circle and Bodemesiter obviously both pass the speed test...but horses who thrive in the triple crown series often are one-time front-end speed horses who can be rated back if they need to be.

There are obviously more than a few recent examples of horses who won the KY Derby without having proven the ability to rate and finish in preps.

'10 Derby winner Super Saver blew a stretch lead in the Tampa Derby and was outfinished by pace rival Line of David in the stretch of the Ark Derby. He didn't get his change of tactics till the Derby itself.

'09 Derby winner Mine That Bird was on the lead with a 1/4 mile to go in both the Borderlands and Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby -- Mine That Bird faded badly through the stretch after an early move into a hot pace to finish a staggering 4th. He didn't get his big tactic change to the Derby itself.

'08 Derby winner Big Brown won the Fla Derby in a front-end tour de force overcoming a wide post. He was front end speed going into the Ky Derby and didn't get his tactic change till the race itself.

'06 Derby winner Barbaro was always a front-end horse. He merely held sway through the stretch in his Derby preps against weak competition. He got a great trip in the Derby close to the pace and poured it on late.

'04 Derby winner Smarty Jones never really proved he could rate back. Neither did '03 Derby winner Funny Cide (who blew a stretch lead in the La Derby at FG and finished 4th) -- '02 Derby winner War Emblem was another one who couldn't rate. He had the kind of style of last years Derby 4th and Preakness winner Shackleford.

I think both raw and positional speed is always an underrated commodity -- even for a Derby horse -- but any horse who proves they have both and can take back and finish is obviously much more imposing. Because these horses are so lightly raced now ... a lot of them don't even get to show how they handle it going into the Derby. It makes handicapping the chances of such a horse a guessing game.

If we see Bodemeister rated back or Secret Circle rated back -- it will take some of the guessing game element out of handicapping their chances in the Derby.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

Doesn't think he can beat Creative Cause out west and Bode needs the money....plus Baffert has dominated Oaklawn

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

trainers, including baffert, do this fairly often. and no, there aren't a lot of races to get graded earnings for a 3 yo. he's already got his santa anita derby contingent...
of course he might just bring both to have them both on hand and send one elsewhere-perhaps to illinois? but i wouldn't be surprised at all to see them both in the gate in Ar.

[HaloWishingwell]

They're running away from I'll Have Another

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and no, there aren't a lot of races to get graded earnings for a 3 yo.

Talk about arguing for argument's sake.

Wood Memorial. Santa Anita Derby. Blue Grass. Lexington. Illinois Derby.

How many more options do you need for one horse?

he's already got his santa anita derby contingent...

His SA Derby contingent consists of the exposed Liaison, starter allowance horse (and likely turf horse) Blueskiesandrainbows, and 5.5f maiden winner Paynter.

[NTamm1215]

Cross out Baffert's name and write anyone else's in on Paynter's PPs and we'd be destroying that trainer for entering him in the SA Derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Talk about arguing for argument's sake.

Wood Memorial. Santa Anita Derby. Blue Grass. Lexington. Illinois Derby.

How many more options do you need for one horse?


His SA Derby contingent consists of the exposed Liaison, starter allowance horse (and likely turf horse) Blueskiesandrainbows, and 5.5f maiden winner Paynter.

i'm referring to bob baffert in particular in that case, with his larger contingent of horses...and noted he already had horses in the santa anita derby. perhaps i worded it incorrectly-my point is that since bob and some others such as pletcher have so many horses, it's hard to keep them apart. didn't tap have three in the la race the other day?
obviously there are races-i know what's out there. but when you have a lot of candidates, you run out of options don't you? and if he's willing to put more than one in at santa anita, why wouldn't he in arkansas?

[Seattleallstar]

why not just keep Bode for the SA Derby, or if he wanted a cupcake spot he could of went to Hawthorne

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

why not just keep Bode for the SA Derby, or if he wanted a cupcake spot he could of went to Hawthorne

Seems like Ahmed Zayat has a hand in all this. He's throwing everything to the fan and hoping something sticks. The hopeless thing he ran in the Florida Derby betrayed his mindset.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

why not just keep Bode for the SA Derby, or if he wanted a cupcake spot he could of went to Hawthorne

Maybe now would be a good time to revisit the ALL-TIME post by Satan's Twin on what would lure and/or keep someone from Hawthorne.

[goodcopy]

Maybe he is trying to win the Arkansan derby and get them both eligible for the Kentucky Derby

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Maybe now would be a good time to revisit the ALL-TIME post by Satan's Twin on what would lure and/or keep someone from Hawthorne.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...6&postcount=40

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm referring to bob baffert in particular in that case, with his larger contingent of horses...

He doesn't have a horse in the Wood, Lexington, or Illinois Derby. He also passed on the Louisiana and Florida Derbies.

and noted he already had horses in the santa anita derby.

I noted that his horses in the SA Derby were second-stringers. Seattleallstar had a valid reason to question why Baffert would put his two top candidates in the same race.

...it's hard to keep them apart. didn't tap have three in the la race the other day?

No, he didn't.

obviously there are races-i know what's out there. but when you have a lot of candidates, you run out of options don't you? and if he's willing to put more than one in at santa anita, why wouldn't he in arkansas?

But you said there weren't a lot of options, yet there are. And Baffert isn't running out of options, he's simply not utilizing the other spots for some reason, which is kind of odd, considering he's started and had previous success in the Wood, Louisiana Derby, and Lexington.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He doesn't have a horse in the Wood, Lexington, or Illinois Derby. He also passed on the Louisiana and Florida Derbies.


I noted that his horses in the SA Derby were second-stringers. Seattleallstar had a valid reason to question why Baffert would put his two top candidates in the same race.


No, he didn't.


But you said there weren't a lot of options, yet there are. And Baffert isn't running out of options, he's simply not utilizing the other spots for some reason, which is kind of odd, considering he's started and had previous success in the Wood, Louisiana Derby, and Lexington.

i know others remarked on him not running in louisiana. i do find that odd since he used to go there rather often. some of the other places as well...i'm sure he's got a reason for limiting himself.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i know others remarked on him not running in louisiana. i do find that odd since he used to go there rather often. some of the other places as well...i'm sure he's got a reason for limiting himself.

Are you forgeting about crossing the Rockies? Very difficult for a horse to do.