New Zealand Racing, 2011-12

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ROCK 'N' POP

3 c Fastnet Rock - Popsy
Breeder: Barnaby & Co
Owner: Te Akau Stud
Purchased for $1 million at 2010 NZ National Yearling Sale
Trainer: Jason Bridgman
Jockey: Matthew Cameron

7 starts
3 wins
2 seconds
1 third

Major races:
1st G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas

Derby odds: 6.50

Positives:
* Won the 2000 Guineas - along with the Derby, that's one of NZ's two best 3yo races. It was a much bigger race and better field than any other Derby horse has been victorious in.
* Incredible quality in his pedigree - by Australia and NZ's best sire of the season, and out of one of NZ's champion mares of the '90s, Popsy (1993 Derby winner).
* Carries the famous orange and blue colours of Te Akau, the dominant force in NZ racing.

Negatives:
* Some question marks about the distance.
* Only 1 win in three starts since the Guineas, and that win was in a close photo against a horse who failed next start. Not sure if he's really on his game.
* Te Akau may dominate NZ racing, but they've NEVER won a Derby. They haven't gone closer than 3rd (Te Akau Nick 1991).

This guy's performance to win the 2000 Guineas was possibly the best by any 3yo this season. That was an awesome field, and he had this incredible turn of foot that made them look like they were standing still. He hasn't been as good as that since, although his 3rd against older horses in the G1 International was very solid. His mother won the Derby, but his sire is much more speed-orientated. I think he's in the top two in this race in terms of quality, but I'm just not sure he'll run out a really strong 2400m.



OCEAN PARK

3 c Thorn Park - Sayyida
Breeder: Trelawney Stud
Owner: A Wong, S Yan & G Hennessy
Purchased for $150,000 at 2010 NZ National Yearling Sale
Trainer: Gary Hennessy
Jockey: Chad Ormsby

5 starts
3 wins
2 seconds
0 thirds

Major races:
1st G3 Wellington Stakes
2nd G2 Great Northern Guineas
2nd G3 Waikato Guineas

Derby odds: 4.50

Positives:
* Never further back than 2nd in his career, and he's shown amazing acceleration.
* He's performed strongly in three major Derby prep races.
* He's another horse with great pedigree - by Thorn Park (sire of 2011 Derby winner Jimmy Choux) out of Sayyida, who was an amazingly talented mare whose promising racing career was cut short by injury.
* He's rated highly enough by his connections to be targeting next year's Hong Kong Derby.

Negatives:
* Beaten without excuses by Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas.
* Inexperience - he's had the fewest starts of any of the major contenders.

Some of this horse's efforts have been breathtaking. He's a very special talent. He was the clear Derby favourite until the Waikato Guineas, when Silent Achiever came from behind him and went straight past him. He didn't do much wrong in that race, but he just ran into one better. I find it just a little hard to see him turn that around here. But he's a very solid place chance.