New Zealand Racing, 2011-12

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It's time to take a look at the Derby horses!

Let's start with the two fillies. First, the one everyone's talking about...

SILENT ACHIEVER

3 f O'Reilly - Winning Spree
Owner & Breeder: Valachi Downs
Trainer: Roger James
Jockey: James McDonald

6 starts
4 wins
1 second
1 third

Major races:
1st G2 Championship Stakes
1st G2 Avondale Guineas
1st G3 Waikato Guineas
3rd G2 Eight Carat Classic (fillies)

Derby odds: 2.20 (favourite)

Positives:
* Considered by many to be the best 3yo in NZ.
* Roger James has trained four Derby winners.
* Undefeated in races further than a mile.
* Won three of the major Derby prep races.
* Has beaten most of the Derby field.
* Amazing ease and superiority in her three big wins against the boys so far.
* Two stakes wins at the Derby track, Ellerslie.

Negatives:
* The history of fillies in the Derby.

Only three fillies have won the Derby in the last 45 years, and none since Popsy (Rock 'n' Pop's mum!) in 1993. But I think Silent Achiever can break that drought. She has a great trainer and NZ's best jockey, and she has just looked so much better than every horse she's faced so far. I think she wins.


BUT she's not the only filly in the race!


ZURELLA

3 f Zabeel - Doneze Girl
Owner & Breeder: The Oaks Stud
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie
Jockey: Jason Waddell

6 starts
4 wins
1 second
0 thirds

Major races:
1st G2 Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic (fillies)
1st G3 Eulogy Stakes (fillies)

Derby odds: 9.00

Positives:
* Zabeel has sired three Derby winners.
* Closely related to Australian champion Lonhro (Doneze Girl is out of his half-sister).
* Shaune Ritchie won the Derby with Military Move.
* Has shown great stamina and a very strong finishing kick.

Negatives:
* The history of fillies in the Derby.
* Has only been racing against fillies so far, so the Derby will be her very first time taking on the boys.
* Her only run at Ellerslie was the worst of her career.
* Temperament - some concern that she might melt down in front of a big crowd.

Everyone's (understandably) so caught up in the Silent Achiever hype that some aren't noticing this other filly in the race. But I think she is a genuine contender as well. She has the breeding and the talent to be a real force in the Derby. I'm just a bit concerned that she hasn't faced the boys at all before, and her only run at Ellerslie was a failure. Also, she has a tendency to get really agitated and nervous before a race - I'd be worried about her in front of a big Derby Day crowd.