The one race I want hedge my bet

Revolution · #1 11-03-2006, 10:48 AM

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

lemoncrush · #2 11-03-2006, 11:57 AM

I'm guessing Beyer didn't care to watch any of CQs races, when he made jaw-dropping, push-buttom moves completely out of character for a 2-yo.

And he said his win in the Hopeful was only because he had 4 speed horses?
Well Andy, look at this field.
Stormello, Pegasus Wind, Scat Daddy, Principle Secret, UD Ghetto, King of the Roxy...they are going to be absolutely flying early.
I think the race sets up perfect for him, I love the prep on the polytrack, and I love Gomez on board. If he doesn't finish in the top 2, then I'll have to agree that he may just be a one-turn sprinter, but for now, I'm betting he's the real deal.

Revolution · #3 11-03-2006, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm guessing Beyer didn't care to watch any of CQs races, when he made jaw-dropping, push-buttom moves completely out of character for a 2-yo.

And he said his win in the Hopeful was only because he had 4 speed horses?
Well Andy, look at this field.
Stormello, Pegasus Wind, Scat Daddy, Principle Secret, UD Ghetto, King of the Roxy...they are going to be absolutely flying early.
I think the race sets up perfect for him, I love the prep on the polytrack, and I love Gomez on board. If he doesn't finish in the top 2, then I'll have to agree that he may just be a one-turn sprinter, but for now, I'm betting he's the real deal.

Not just beyer. Many aren't impressed with him. His jaw dropping push button moves weren't really that draw dropping. It was more a result of him passing tired horses. People just don't think he is that fast. I think he could win here, but he is no derby horse. Probably will turn out to be like First Samurai and be a nice miler.

lemoncrush · #4 11-03-2006, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Not just beyer. Many aren't impressed with him. His jaw dropping push button moves weren't really that draw dropping. It was more a result of him passing tired horses. People just don't think he is that fast. I think he could win here, but he is no derby horse. Probably will turn out to be like First Samurai and be a nice miler.

The move he made in his 2nd race at Churchill was something to see. He looked totally beat, and then accelerated to the rail and won easy.
I remember seeing Bejarano smiling and shaking his head in the winnner's circle like he couldn't believe what the horse just did.

I haven't been watching Breeders Cup races for as long as many on here, but the Juvy seems to often be won by horses coming off the pace (at least recently with Stevie, Wilko, Action this Day, etc..)
That being said, I'm also using Street Sense, Great Hunter and CP west, who should all be closer to the pace than CQ.

SniperSB23 · #5 11-03-2006, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

I agree totally with Beyer here.

zippyneedsawin · #6 11-03-2006, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

Well, that cinches it.. CQ is now a LOCK to win the race!

Revolution · #7 11-03-2006, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Well, that cinches it.. CQ is now a LOCK to win the race!

Pletcher just said on the radio that his best hand is the one he has in the Juvenile. So either Scat Daddy and CQ is probably your winner. I like Scat Daddy here, but I can see CQ at 8.5f, but not at 10f in the spring.

SniperSB23 · #8 11-03-2006, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Pletcher just said on the radio that his best hand is the one he has in the Juvenile. So either Scat Daddy and CQ is probably your winner. I like Scat Daddy here, but I can see CQ at 8.5f, but not at 10f in the spring.

I do like Pletcher's chances in the Juvenile but not with Scat Daddy or Circular Quay. The one who has a big shot for him is King of the Roxy.

SCUDSBROTHER · #9 11-03-2006, 04:34 PM

PLETCHER said yesterday that Scat Daddy is crying out for 2 turns.I think you can make a good case for atleast 5 in here.I don't think P.Secret or C.Q. are crying out for 2 turns.They are both nice horses though,and would keep me from playing a large amount on somebody else.I think the Lukas horse may be better than he has shown.All those "best of day" works done while breezing at Churchill shows me he likes this place.Also,I'd like to know why Luzzi waited so long to use the whip in the Champagne.He looks behind him at the top of the stretch,and sees 2 horses making runs,but just hand rides until they arrive on the seen.If he is a length or 2 clear at the top of the stretch tomorrow,look for Luzzi to find that whip and (as Lukas says) "whip him everywhere that there is hair." I would like him more if he had gotten a better post.I will use Scat Daddy/P Wind,but it is not a race I am counting the hours for.I mean,Scat won't be paying much.Same constant problem with almost every Pletcher winner.

Thunder Gulch · #10 11-03-2006, 04:40 PM

Re: Quay...opinions differ wildly on this one. As mentioned, Beyer hates him, but Beyer's buddy Davidowitz has been raving about him for two months and is already calling him a Derby contender. We'll know more tomorrow for sure.

lemoncrush · #11 11-06-2006, 03:04 PM

Is anyone more or less impressed with CQ now?
I'm still high on him, but it's hard to tell how well he did, being he had to race so wide after he made his move.
I'm just upset that I wrote I would be using Great Hunter and Street Sense (see above) along with CQ, threw out all the speed horses, and managed to somehow miss the exacta and trifecta.

Still, I admit I like the thrill of watching a horse like CQ make his move from the back of the pack, accelerate and weave through traffic, even if it doesn't work out in the end. He was fun to watch. Plus, I like that Beyer was wrong about him...