Bernardini/Smarty revisited?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

You dont think if they have a chance to pin him down on the rail they wont do it??? Do you also think they would let him lose on the lead? If they are working him from the gate they are probably going to try and get him out of there fairly quickly. Hopefully I will see you tomorrow and we can discuss this face to face.

I just don't think they're going to risk an honest to God chance at winning the BCC by burning out Bernardini (who, I don't think has as good a chance here as most people think.) It amazes me that Lava Man is being ignored when he is training BRILLIANTLY and looks much the best, but whatever. I will be up at the Racebook by 2pm. If you're there, I'll see you.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I just don't think they're going to risk an honest to God chance at winning the BCC by burning out Bernardini (who, I don't think has as good a chance here as most people think.) It amazes me that Lava Man is being ignored when he is training BRILLIANTLY and looks much the best, but whatever. I will be up at the Racebook by 2pm. If you're there, I'll see you.

Lava is a very nice horse but the whole running up the track thing outside of Cali scares alot of people. Also it didnt look to me that Lava was 100% in his last. He won but something didnt look right to me. Im going to go out on a limb here and give you a horse with alot of talent but not alot of heart and he decides to run tomorrow will hit the board at a huge price. Suave.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Lava is a very nice horse but the whole running up the track thing outside of Cali scares alot of people. Also it didnt look to me that Lava was 100% in his last. He won but something didnt look right to me. Im going to go out on a limb here and give you a horse with alot of talent but not alot of heart and he decides to run tomorrow will hit the board at a huge price. Suave.

He's only had one start since July, which is a negative for him, but his work a few days ago was very nice...

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest bit if he hit the board, but I'm going to take my chances and say that he's not the winner.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

He's only had one start since July, which is a negative for him, but his work a few days ago was very nice...

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest bit if he hit the board, but I'm going to take my chances and say that he's not the winner.

Thats why I said hit the board. I said I was going out on a limb not walking straight off the tree.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Thats why I said hit the board. I said I was going out on a limb not walking straight off the tree.

LMFAO! You might as well walk off of the tree with me... my pick to win is Perfect Drift.

In all honesty, if the pace is quick enough, I like Giacomo. That colt has looked electric working... I have watched his works over and over again and I just love him. (Rat or not. )

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

LMFAO! You might as well walk off of the tree with me... my pick to win is Perfect Drift.

In all honesty, if the pace is quick enough, I like Giacomo. That colt has looked electric working... I have watched his works over and over again and I just love him. (Rat or not. )

We can find a nice palm tree and you can go out on one of those limbs with those picks. Wait they dont have limbs! Youve just totally fallen off the tree
with this. If that exacta hits I will be your love slave for the next year

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

We can find a nice palm tree and you can go out on one of those limbs with those picks. Wait they dont have limbs! Youve just totally fallen off the tree
with this. If that exacta hits I will be your love slave for the next year

LMAO... shoot, stranger things have happened.

[Revolution]

Bernardini is much better than Smarty. He has proven he can run on the lead or just off of it. It is much harder to burn out a horse in a 10f race than a 12f race too. Smarty had a problem relaxing too, something Bernardini does not have.

It isn't like Bernardini has already beaten Invasor, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, etc. He has beaten mediocre horses, and these here are all group/grade 1 winners themselves. I am sure many think their horse is just as good, and they would never ruin there chance of winning to make sure he didn't win.

Based on speed figures of the american horses and based on David Junior and George Washington's raw talent, Bernardini does not stand that much above this field.

If he runs what he has been running, he is very beatable. The feeling is though that he hasn't shown his best, and that is why he is such a heavy favorite.

He is a very shaky even money choice if you ask me. I think a horse like Ouija Board stands over her field a lot more than Bernardini. With a giving turf course, there is no filly with a shot against Ouija.