Possible new handicaping show

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The new software is a lot easier.

I did another piece on Tuesday. Same old way.

The focus of this is on stretch running horses who were moved early into hot paces. I went with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Invasor, and Point Given as examples. Very basic stuff.

Might as well as use examples of very famous top horses old and new...even though this type of trip is a little more detrimental to the chances of cheaper class off-the-pace horses.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fV-e9...bv4Q-Aq3q1QM2D

Youtube is slow for uploading. It took more time to upload than to actually do the video ... and I even changed it to an inferior video quality so it would upload faster.

OMG. You are so hot!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

OMG. You are so hot!

There is no greater eye-candy than text like that.

Such good text and great racing... only to be spoiled by my Ben Stein like voice.

[my miss storm cat]

I watched the whole thing and liked it a lot. Great job!

Can I make one little suggestion (and no not the same one although I still think we should see you)?

[my miss storm cat]

Times up!

I'd imagine I can say this without worry about huwting your widdwe feewings...

I liked it a LOT. I like you voice, your expressiveness (is that a word?), that you don't sound like you're talking down to anyone, the information, the clips you used, everything BUT BUT BUT BUT you need to try to stop saying ummm and uh so much.

Watch one minute, any minute, and count how many times you do this. (I haven't and won't. I'm not judging you here. I'm only trying to help) and I think you'll see what I'm saying.

That aside, Mr. Eye Candy, it's really really good.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

you need to try to stop saying ummm and uh so much.

Watch one minute, any minute, and count how many times you do this. (I haven't and won't. I'm not judging you here. I'm only trying to help) and I think you'll see what I'm saying.

Talking at a laptop is very akward.

The ummm and uh stops when you have bullet point notes for transition. I took Oral Communication in high school.

[Indian Charlie]

I won't even touch that one.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I took Oral Communication in high school.

Yes well oral skills are very important. I applaud you, Sir.

[pweizer]

Another horse from Doug's first podcast came back to win today at Turfway at 30-1. I only wish I had enough sense to play him.

Credit where credit is due. Great job Doug!

Paul

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There is no greater eye-candy than text like that.

Such good text and great racing... only to be spoiled by my Ben Stein like voice.

kind of cool actually....hearing a voice without that Albany accent. Ya know, the one that sounds kind of like an angry guy from Wis-CON-sin. Can't wait to hear your thoughts on the derby preps...

[joeydb]

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

thread jack..

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by joeydb

No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

On paper, its very easy to predict. But then when the gate opens, it does not always turn out that way. Thats what makes this game so challenging.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

Question #1: There are situations where they are much more likely to occur -- but it shouldn't be something you can easily predict before a race for the simple fact that speed duels are so destructive and even the most incompetent of jockeys know this.

Question #2: Most every horse has a preferred running style. I judge how efficient they just ran in a race by looking at running styles and pace figures. I have read Brohamer's book, but I don't use his style of pace analysis.

* For a front-running horse ... the most efficent race they can run comes when they're on an uncontested early lead while running a pace figure that is within their typical range of comfort and they're not being hard-rated by the jockey. A lot of jockeys can screw-up when they get loose early by trying to rate too much.

* For a speed horse who doesn't have to be a front-runner ... the most efficent race is either the one described above or a clear stalking trip about 3/4 of a length to a 1 1/2 lengths off of an inferior pace setter.

* For a mid-pack type horse ... the most efficent possible race they can run is when speed horses are hooked up in-front of them and setting a strong pace - meanwhile they're gapped back in a clear and isolated position with no one else less than 2 lengths behind them. This trip will ensure a peak result and an absolute max speed figure.

* For a deep closing horse ... the most efficent possible race is obviously when a fast and hotly contested early pace is happening up front. That's all a deep closer can ask for. It will even help the deep closers cause a lot more if there is no mid-pack runner gapped in a clear and isolated position.

Those are the most efficent trips that lead to peak performances and peak speed figures. An efficent trip is just a clear trip in a race where the pace dynamics didn't work against the runner.

If you can identify a legit track bias ... horses who run races with a most efficent trip and are aided by a path or speed bias at the same time ... they make sensational bet againsts. Betfair tip #1.