Aqueduct Card

[Travis Stone]

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

I hope you are right though have to say I will remain skeptical until we see something other than more of the same or bandaids disguised as innovation

[welltakethat]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

I'm not sure how they have earned that confidence. They were not even able to calculate the correct take out percentages over an extended period of time. And that's where they already know what the right answer is.

I think Cannon Shell makes a lot of good points about eliminating the lower rung of claiming horses, especially given they should be the premier circuit and looking to put themselves on a different level from the rest of the midatlantic competition. Upping purses for bottom rung claimers is a waste of the infusion, winter or not. That card detailed above for a Sunday when they get more traffic cause its a weekend is an abomination.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by welltakethat

I'm not sure how they have earned that confidence. They were not even able to calculate the correct take out percentages over an extended period of time. And that's where they already know what the right answer is.

I think Cannon Shell makes a lot of good points about eliminating the lower rung of claiming horses, especially given they should be the premier circuit and looking to put themselves on a different level from the rest of the midatlantic competition. Upping purses for bottom rung claimers is a waste of the infusion, winter or not. That card detailed above for a Sunday when they get more traffic cause its a weekend is an abomination.

How come the vast majority of your few posts are in threads that also involve TJFRAB?

[welltakethat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How come the vast majority of your few posts are in threads that also involve TJFRAB?

I like the change of subject to deflect the conversation, I think someone else pointed that out in an earlier post I made about nyra versus keeneland where you were wripping me for defending keeneland over nyra.

I guess we both are just thoroughly and consistently disappointed in the quality of the product that nyra puts out beyond their saratoga meet. Seems like from the above posts we are not the only ones wishing the slot dollars would have went to a better product instead of more of the same.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by welltakethat

I like the change of subject to deflect the conversation, I think someone else pointed that out in an earlier post I made about nyra versus keeneland where you were wripping me for defending keeneland over nyra.

I guess we both are just thoroughly and consistently disappointed in the quality of the product that nyra puts out beyond their saratoga meet. Seems like from the above posts we are not the only ones wishing the slot dollars would have went to a better product instead of more of the same.

The fact that you're the same person under two ID's posting from the same IP belies that answer.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The fact that you're the same person under two ID's posting from the same IP belies that answer.

Highlight of the day!

Sorry to digress, as I am actually finding this thread fascinating. Honestly.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Highlight of the day!

Sorry to digress, as I am actually finding this thread fascinating. Honestly.

I agree, but I think I am finding it fascinating in a different way. Sifting through the nonsense, there is a legitimate discussion here.

Unfortunately, I'm guessing Chuck's suggestions will fall on deaf ears.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The fact that you're the same person under two ID's posting from the same IP belies that answer.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The fact that you're the same person under two ID's posting from the same IP belies that answer.

Fine work Stevie

[Calzone Lord]

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

Nobody is saying you can't have lower claiming prices, but they should be more in line with purses. If the current set up is allowing guys like Cole to thrive, that alone tells me there is something desperately wrong with the way the game is played.

People don't have to take time with horses and actually practice horsemanship, which is in no way good for the animals. I have no doubt many more horses are sent out that shouldn't be because of slots purses. It also, in my mind, encourages cheating.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If the current set up is allowing guys like Cole to thrive, that alone tells me there is something desperately wrong with the way the game is played.

The current set-up is keeping some wanna-be Cole's away...because they're simply way out-priced.

As I know that you know -- this game is setup so harshly for the bettor and the owner.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The current set-up is keeping some wanna-be Cole's away...because they're simply way out-priced.

As I know that you know -- this game is setup so harshly for the bettor and the owner.

If you are running 5k horses for 15k, why not make them 10 or 15k horses? Raising the claiming price does nothing to hurt the current owner unless he is looking to get rid of damaged goods. The purse stays the same, and he is less likely to lose his horse. I don't have a lot of sympathy for owners looking to get rid of damaged goods.

Raising the claiming price is also still going to keep the wannabe Coles out, even moreso.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There would be no made up value. If a horse is worth less than 15k then he needs to run elsewhere. If you want better racing you have to start somewhere.

If they got rid of all the horses in New York who are truly worth less than 15K true value to their owners ... you'd have a lot of horses going out.

And a lot more horses who are just a single condition or two away from joining them.

I remember the first year at Presque Isle when the wrote those stupid N1X alw races with 72K purses. A horse of Loren Cox's shipped up off of an open 5K claiming win at Mountaineer and won one of them with ease without even really improving his figure.

Cheap open claiming is good bread and butter horse racing. I'm not so sure Rapid Redux would even be worth 15K in NY.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If they got rid of all the horses in New York who are truly worth less than 15K true value to their owners ... you'd have a lot of horses going out.

And a lot more horses who are just a single condition or two away from joining them.

I remember the first year at Presque Isle when the wrote those stupid N1X alw races with 72K purses. A horse of Loren Cox's shipped up off of an open 5K claiming win at Mountaineer and won one of them with ease without even really improving his figure.

Cheap open claiming is good bread and butter horse racing. I'm not so sure Rapid Redux would even be worth 15K in NY.

Based on what is presently making up some of their cards they need to have a lot going out. They would need to give some notice, like announcing that this will start at Belmont now. Open claiming races are great, most of what they have now isnt that. You also need to have a high top end. With the purses they can give out having $150k claimers is possible. Rather than running in allowance races on a secondary circuit, a guy could run in high level claiming races. Some enterprising owners will claim at that level which is good for everyone.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

With the purses they can give out having $150k claimers is possible. Rather than running in allowance races on a secondary circuit, a guy could run in high level claiming races. Some enterprising owners will claim at that level which is good for everyone.

Pletcher would be odds-on with a horse like Turbo Compressor.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Chuck - Since the original thread was about Aqueduct, and specifically the product they put on through the winter - I geared my response toward what seems to me to be the most glaring issue with winter racing there - their state bred racing program. 95% of the horses bred in the state have no business running for the purses they soon will see. More stallions are being placed in NY to accommodate the growing population of mares (almost all bad) that can drop a foal on the ground and be blessed NY registered. It is not unlike LA, only it's the tip of the iceberg. 10 years from now (assuming the relationship with Genting is intact) you'll have the same problems they have - except LA has 3 tracks to spread the "wealth" around to.

Finger Lakes can barely handle the population they have, and their adoption program is maxed out on day 1. And it goes without saying that the product there does not support itself.

A handful of Finger lakes trainers bring some of them here to Tampa, most are laid up for the winter, and few go elsewhere.

Encouraging the top outfits to keep stalls there for their higher end dirt horses / promising 2-3yos in the winter instead of shipping south would be a start. I don't know if that will happen, personally.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Chuck - Since the original thread was about Aqueduct, and specifically the product they put on through the winter - I geared my response toward what seems to me to be the most glaring issue with winter racing there - their state bred racing program. 95% of the horses bred in the state have no business running for the purses they soon will see. More stallions are being placed in NY to accommodate the growing population of mares (almost all bad) that can drop a foal on the ground and be blessed NY registered. It is not unlike LA, only it's the tip of the iceberg. 10 years from now (assuming the relationship with Genting is intact) you'll have the same problems they have - except LA has 3 tracks to spread the "wealth" around to.

Finger Lakes can barely handle the population they have, and their adoption program is maxed out on day 1. And it goes without saying that the product there does not support itself.

A handful of Finger lakes trainers bring some of them here to Tampa, most are laid up for the winter, and few go elsewhere.

Encouraging the top outfits to keep stalls there for their higher end dirt horses / promising 2-3yos in the winter instead of shipping south would be a start. I don't know if that will happen, personally.

Supply and demand will eventually max out the program. By limiting the amount of NY bred races you will force people to breed better horses. While there is no doubt that most NY breds will be running for a lot more than they should be there are ancillary benefits of bringing more money into the state via mares, stallions and foals. The breeders do have some political clout and as such are a player. If you simply write fewer, better races the issues will wind themselves down.

You will never get the top young horses staying North simply because of the weather and the effect of not being able to train regularly all the time. However it seems like some of the big outfits have left better horses and there are some new stables there.