my main plays

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Sprint -
had a small bit on kelly's landing before the draw. not great now. backed Borbondaro at 5-1.. great bet IMO

Filly and Mare Turf -
Ouija and Germance might box Satwa with them but I might have a nice bet on germance if I get good enough odds

Classic -
Backed Invasor at 10-1. way too big. Bernardini should win. Might have a nationalist bet on gorgeous george.

Agree with you on Bordonaro, but he was over 6-1 all last week at TheGreek.com. If you like to bet before the parimutuals, you'd do well to check them out. (odds are down right now while they take post position into account, but will almost certainly be up again later today.)

In the F&M Turf, you've made me officially nervous about leaving out Germance!

IMO, Invasor at 10-1 is just about correct. Even if I take Geo. Wash and David Jr out of the race entirely, I'd give Invasor just a 9-1 chance to win.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

IMO, Invasor at 10-1 is just about correct. Even if I take Geo. Wash and David Jr out of the race entirely, I'd give Invasor just a 9-1 chance to win.

On the other hand, brockguy, you can lock up a nice % profit by taking the -680 that Pinnacle is offering on Invasor to NOT win. Your 10-1 is certainly nice from that standpoint.

--Dunbar

I think anyone leaving out Film Maker is flirting with danger. Girl is as money as a mexican hooker during springbreak.

Be careful betting Hurrican Run. A couple of things comes to mind here. On paper he seems to be head and shoulders above everyone else. There are two things to consider.

1) He raced on Oct 1 in the Arc and then on Oct 14th. He lost both. Now he gets on a plane and travels across the Atlantic for a race on Nov 4th. That is a ton for a horse to endure in a one month time span.

2) This is my fav little hidden tid-bit. Hurricane Run's sire is Montjeu. Montjeu came over to Churchill during his 4 year old season with an impressive resume. However, Montjeu was tailing off during his 4 year old season. Montjeu didnt hit the board as the $3.20 fav. This also seems to be the case with Hurrican Run. Just be careful with this one.

Balleto--I am with you on Film Maker. I think she might be a little too slow but she is ultra consistant.

My bet of the day is Echo Of Light.

I really like Echo of Light as well. He may be my favorite for that race.

Originally Posted by Balletto

I really like Echo of Light as well. He may be my favorite for that race.

I am hoping people overlook this horse.