Mike Battaglia -- odds maker

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Yeah, it does annoy me when their odds don't add up. But a morning line shouldn't add to 1, IMO. It should attempt to reflect the betting odds, which means it should add to 119% for a 16% track take. (117.6% for a 15% track take). The lines in Equibase do exceed that, but sometimes not by that much. I just checked a few at AQ that are in the 122% range. In the past I've seen odds totals as high as 135% or worse.

However, there's another important point. A morning line odds has to represent a range of values. For example, the 1-1 on Bernardini represents everything from 1-1 up to, but not including, 6-5. The 6-1 on Lava Man covers everthing up to 7-1.

If you convert the given ML numbers for the Classic to probabilities and sum them, you get a whopping 131%, which would appear to reflect a 24% track hold. But if you take the mid-points of the odd range for each horse (use 1.1 to 1 for Bernardini, 6.5-1 for Lava Man, etc), and convert those odds to probabilities, it adds to 118%, which corresponds to the correct 16% track take!

--Dunbar