Dubai Esc. Out

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I mean exactly what I said. If Bernardini wins the BC Classic, he will have nothing more to prove to me. Would he still have something more to prove to you?

Yes. Because other horses will improve. And thats because you are not a fan. Too much of a middle man. This very revealing. I think this particular thread illustrates the difference between the incredibly educated, in the know, ultrapragmatic horse people, and the ignorant masses (me). And the game as a whole takes a big fat back seat.

Dont be offended by my brashness/picking a fight. This is part of the fun of the board. I actually very much respect your opinions.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes. Because other horses will improve. And thats because you are not a fan. Too much of a middle man. This very revealing. I think this particular thread illustrates the difference between the incredibly educated, in the know, ultrapragmatic horse people, and the ignorant masses (me). And the game as a whole takes a big fat back seat.

Dont be offended by my brashness/picking a fight. This is part of the fun of the board. I actually very much respect your opinions.

I've been in the sport on all levels. I've been in it as a bettor, a fan, an owner, and a racing manager. So it's not like I see things from any one angle. I see things from each of those points of view.

With regard to Bernardini, I actually have the same opinion no matter which hat I'm wearing. If I owned the horse, I would definitely retire him for a number of reasons. He will be worth so much money if he wins the BC Classic that there would be no real upside to run him next year. As I said, he would probably be worth at least $100 million. It would cost $5 million just to insure him next year. Even if he won a bunch oif races next year, I don't think his value would go up much more. But if he started losing next year, his value could come down quite a bit. So there simply would be practically no upside to running him next year, but quite a bit of downside.

As a fan and bettor, I would want them to retire Bernardini next year assuming that he wins the BC Classic relatively easily. The reason being that I do enjoy betting big races and when a horse like Bernardini is running, the race usually becomes unbettable for me. I couldn't see anyone challenging Bernardini for at least the first half of next year. Even if there is some freakish 3 year old next year, that horse would probably not run against older horses until September or October. So we would probably have nothing but four and five horse fields every time that Bernardini runs and he would go off at 1-5 every time. That would pretty much ruin those races for me from a bettor's point of view.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I've been in the sport on all levels. I've been in it as a bettor, a fan, an owner, and a racing manager. So it's not like I see things from any one angle. I see things from each of those points of view.

With regard to Bernardini, I actually have the same opinion no matter which hat I'm wearing. If I owned the horse, I would definitely retire him for a number of reasons. He will be worth so much money if he wins the BC Classic that there would be no real upside to run him next year. As I said, he would probably be worth at least $100 million. It would cost $5 million just to insure him next year. Even if he won a bunch oif races next year, I don't think his value would go up much more. But if he started losing next year, his value could come down quite a bit. So there simply would be practically no upside to running him next year, but quite a bit of downside.

As a fan and bettor, I would want them to retire Bernardini next year assuming that he wins the BC Classic relatively easily. The reason being that I do enjoy betting big races and when a horse like Bernardini is running, the race usually becomes unbettable for me. I couldn't see anyone challenging Bernardini for at least the first half of next year. Even if there is some freakish 3 year old next year, that horse would probably not run against older horses until September or October. So we would probably have nothing but four and five horse fields every time that Bernardini runs and he would go off at 1-5 every time. That would pretty much ruin those races for me from a bettor's point of view.

I did not mind watching Mineshaft destroy short fields. I loved it. And of course if they weight Bernardini down enough we could see a performance like Mineshaft and Perfect Drift. Set some more modern weight carrying records. As far as betting goes. I would think their might be better ways to make money than on big races. I personally would want to go against an ignorant public. I think the big races bring out too much competition for the causal fans money.
The addicts. Find the addicts and the money follows seems to me.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As a fan and bettor, I would want them to retire Bernardini next year assuming that he wins the BC Classic relatively easily. The reason being that I do enjoy betting big races and when a horse like Bernardini is running, the race usually becomes unbettable for me. I couldn't see anyone challenging Bernardini for at least the first half of next year. Even if there is some freakish 3 year old next year, that horse would probably not run against older horses until September or October. So we would probably have nothing but four and five horse fields every time that Bernardini runs and he would go off at 1-5 every time. That would pretty much ruin those races for me from a bettor's point of view.

For goodness sake, Rupert, there are so many OTHER races you can bet on if you don't like the short fields with Bernardini. Be a fan! Watch him run for fun!

And your attempt to predict the future for what Bernardini would have to face has lots of holes in it. When Sunday Silence and Easy Goer were allowed to keep racing at 4, no one thought any horse would be able to compete with them. But Criminal Type appeared and beat each of them in thrilling stretch battles early in their 4th year. It's not at all rare for a horse to appear that showed little promise earlier.

It's not a question of "nothing left to prove". It's showing how good you are against different competition under different circumstances.

Seattle Slew didn't have much to prove as a 4-yr-old, but fans got to see him run against Affirmed.

I'm not disputing what's the best "business decision". But to say that as a fan you'd like to see Bernardini retired is incomprehensible to me.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For goodness sake, Rupert, there are so many OTHER races you can bet on if you don't like the short fields with Bernardini. Be a fan! Watch him run for fun!

And your attempt to predict the future for what Bernardini would have to face has lots of holes in it. When Sunday Silence and Easy Goer were allowed to keep racing at 4, no one thought any horse would be able to compete with them. But Criminal Type appeared and beat each of them in thrilling stretch battles early in their 4th year. It's not at all rare for a horse to appear that showed little promise earlier.

It's not a question of "nothing left to prove". It's showing how good you are against different competition under different circumstances.

Seattle Slew didn't have much to prove as a 4-yr-old, but fans got to see him run against Affirmed.

I'm not disputing what's the best "business decision". But to say that as a fan you'd like to see Bernardini retired is incomprehensible to me.

--Dunbar

I'm both a fan and a bettor just like you. As a bettor, I can't believe that you like it when Bernardini is running. The JCGC was an unbettable race because of Bernardini. If he wasn't in the race, the race would have been much more competive and the field would have been much bigger and you may have ven found a horse to bet on in there. I can't believe that as a bettor that you like to see races with 1-5 shots that look like locks.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm both a fan and a bettor just like you. As a bettor, I can't believe that you like it when Bernardini is running. The JCGC was an unbettable race because of Bernardini. If he wasn't in the race, the race would have been much more competive and the field would have been much bigger and you may have ven found a horse to bet on in there. I can't believe that as a bettor that you like to see races with 1-5 shots that look like locks.

The point is there are plenty of races a week that I can find that would be a good betting race. There are seldom races where you can see a talent like Bernardini run. I'll happily give up an occassional good betting race to see what the guy is really made of and if he can maintain his form through a 4yo campaign.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm both a fan and a bettor just like you. As a bettor, I can't believe that you like it when Bernardini is running. The JCGC was an unbettable race because of Bernardini. If he wasn't in the race, the race would have been much more competive and the field would have been much bigger and you may have ven found a horse to bet on in there. I can't believe that as a bettor that you like to see races with 1-5 shots that look like locks.

Like Sniper, I am more than willing to give up 6-10 races a year that I might otherwise bet in order to see a really good horse run in those races. That leaves a few thousand other races to bet on.

Another point I tried to make is that there is no certainty that Bernardini would run over the competition next year. New faces show up, and sometimes those horses are surprisingly good.

But mostly, I am willing to let my fan interest take precedence over my betting side for a few races a year.

Your reasoning makes sense from an owner's "business" point of view. But not from a fan's point of view. The bettor's point of view is not relevant when we are talking about 10 races out of thousands.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes. Because other horses will improve. And thats because you are not a fan. Too much of a middle man. This very revealing. I think this particular thread illustrates the difference between the incredibly educated, in the know, ultrapragmatic horse people, and the ignorant masses (me). And the game as a whole takes a big fat back seat.

Dont be offended by my brashness/picking a fight. This is part of the fun of the board. I actually very much respect your opinions.

By the way, if you did become an owner or a racing manger, you would certainly see things quite differently. Because there is so much money in breeding, your focus is going to be just as much about maximizing your horse's value for breeding as it will be about anything else. You're going to pretty much have something in mind for every horse you buy. You will basically have a game plan for every horse. In this day and age, you can't really expect horses to stay sound for a long time. They may stay sound for a while, but you can't expect it. You have to assume that you will be lucky if your horse runs 10 times in its entire career. That may sound like a short career but in this day and age you can make a fortune with a horse that only runs 10 times, if the horse is good. If a filly wins a Grade I race, she is going to be worth a minimum of $1.2-$1.5 million and possibly even much more. The horses we buy are usually in the $200,000 range. If the horse is filly, the main thing on my mind is try to win a big race. If she can win just a single Grade I race, we're going to make at least 6-7x our money.

What Oracle did with Wonder Lady Anne L is exactly what you want to do. You want to find a filly that wins a Grade I race and you will have a huge profit. Any black type that you can get will make a horse's value go way up but the ultimate is winning a Grade I.

The purses of the race are often times not even a big deal in comparison to what the win would mean for the horse's value. Sometimes I will tell a friend when we have a horse running in a big race. The first thing they will usually ask is how big is the purse. My answer is usually something to the effect of, "The purse is only $150,000 but it's a Grade II race. First place is only $90,000 but if the horse wins her value will go up by about $400,000 for breeding.

Anyway, the reality of today is that there is so much money in breeding that it affects all the decisions you make as an owner or racing manager. I don't know if it's a good or a bad thing but that is the reality of the business today.