12/26 (SA): Malibu (G1), Sir Beaufort (G3), Cal Breeders (M/F)

[Kasept]

Malibu ML

1 El Pocho (CHI) 50-1
2 Centralinteligence 8-1
3 Luckarack 30-1
4 Rothko 9-2
5 Racing Aptitude 8-1
6 Hoorayforhollywood 8-1
7 Light Up the Score 12-1
8 Smash 9-2
9 Associate 6-1
10 Wine Police 8-1
11 The Factor 7-2

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Malibu ML

1 El Pocho (CHI) 50-1
2 Centralinteligence 8-1
3 Luckarack 30-1
4 Rothko 9-2
5 Racing Aptitude 8-1
6 Hoorayforhollywood 8-1
7 Light Up the Score 12-1
8 Smash 9-2
9 Associate 6-1
10 Wine Police 8-1
11 The Factor 7-2

A few things jump out at me. The Factor is an underlay. Hooray is an overlay. Wine Police has to be over 12-1 at post time. Associate please god let them bet him, as juiced as he likely is he has no chance 6-1 is crazy.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Wine Police has to be over 12-1 at post time.

I'm kind of surprised Wine Police is getting lost in the wagering. He's no world beater, but he's kept solid company his entire career. Other than The Factor, who can say that in this race?

It's possible that there's still a significant gap between the stakes 3yos and the allowance level 3yos. While Smash, Hoorayforhollywood, Centralinteligence, Rothko, et al look like they have bright futures, there's something to be said for being "battle tested". Smash was rejected by Coil in their comeback last May, then was no threat to Indiano in FL. Hoorayforhollywood was edged by Decisive Moment, a Kentucky Derby longshot and Grade 3 type (at best), at Delta Downs. Centralinteligence beat a thoroughly toasted Runflatout in his allowance score. The 4 horses that placed to Rothko in his lopsided allowance wins have done nothing since, save for My Man Marty winning a subsequent 20k claimer.

At any rate, this isn't my idea of a Grade 1.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm kind of surprised Wine Police is getting lost in the wagering. He's no world beater, but he's kept solid company his entire career. Other than The Factor, who can say that in this race?

It's possible that there's still a significant gap between the stakes 3yos and the allowance level 3yos. While Smash, Hoorayforhollywood, Centralinteligence, Rothko, et al look like they have bright futures, there's something to be said for being "battle tested". Smash was rejected by Coil in their comeback last May, then was no threat to Indiano in FL. Hoorayforhollywood was edged by Decisive Moment, a Kentucky Derby longshot and Grade 3 type (at best), at Delta Downs. Centralinteligence beat a thoroughly toasted Runflatout in his allowance score. The 4 horses that placed to Rothko in his lopsided allowance wins have done nothing since, save for My Man Marty winning a subsequent 20k claimer.

At any rate, this isn't my idea of a Grade 1.

I get everything your saying, I just dont see Wine Police improving that much. Has he even ran back to his career debut yet this year?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I get everything your saying, I just dont see Wine Police improving that much. Has he even ran back to his career debut yet this year?

That's kind of my point. He's the known quantity. I may be way off base--I don't have the Beyer numbers--, but perhaps he doesn't have to improve at all. He's acquitted himself well against the likes of Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Boys At Toscanova, Redeemed, and Caleb's Posse. That might be good enough (for now).

The lightly raced horses we've mentioned have essentially only beaten each other, and their few stakes starts and layoff lines don't particularly bestow confidence.

It seems like they all should be between 9-2 and 8-1 in here, with the exception of the Chilean import. Even the O'Neill claimer has his positives, with a minor stakes score (over the well-meant Baffert colt CJ Russell) and 7 career victories under his belt.

[my miss storm cat]

Did anyone else notice that they changed the headline in the form and it now has the corect track listed?

It had said Hollywood's Malibu Worth a Shot for Ellis.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Did anyone else notice that they changed the headline in the form and it now has the corect track listed?

It had said Hollywood's Malibu Worth a Shot for Ellis.

It was sad that it stayed up for 48 hours that way. But it was also fitting since Hovdey had his name plastered on the headline.

Of course, no one bothered to correct the gross error in the actual article.

Papa Clem did not win the Strub. He didn't even run in it.