BC singles

SniperSB23 · #1 10-31-2006, 05:33 PM

I'm considering singling Dreaming of Anna so I can go deep elsewhere (like the Sprint) and try and catch a bomb. I feel like a lot of people are going deep in the BC Juv Fillies that I'll be abe to get better odds on Dreaming of Anna in the multi race pools than I could in the actual race.

miraja2 · #2 10-31-2006, 06:01 PM

The best single is Circular Quay.
If you look at his races on the REAL dirt and compare it to the other horses in this race....he looks like a class above to me. Plus, he has already won twice on this track.
He is as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race.

Danzig · #3 10-31-2006, 06:02 PM

the race won most often by the fave is the distaff, so i'd imagine fleet indian would be the logical lock. but i really don't think any of them are a 'lock'. each race has many top notch horses, any of which can win. it's a watch only day for me anyway, one to enjoy purely as a spectator.

miraja2 · #4 10-31-2006, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

the race won most often by the fave is the distaff, so i'd imagine fleet indian would be the logical lock. but i really don't think any of them are a 'lock'. each race has many top notch horses, any of which can win. it's a watch only day for me anyway, one to enjoy purely as a spectator.

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

dalakhani · #5 10-31-2006, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

Yeah, but...

You want to single Circular Quay and he is attempting to do something he has never done- win around two turns. How can you call a horse attempting to win around two turns for the first time a "lock"?

miraja2 · #6 10-31-2006, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yeah, but...

You want to single Circular Quay and he is attempting to do something he has never done- win around two turns. How can you call a horse attempting to win around two turns for the first time a "lock"?

You might want to read a bit more carefully. I did not call him a "lock." I said he was "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race." That is different. There are too many good horses in these races for anyone to be a lock, but after watching all of his races multiple times....I believe he is a two-turn horse. It was not the two-turns that got him last time....it was the garbage surface he was running on. The fact that he is by Thunder Gulch also suggests (although obviously does not ensure) that stretching out should not be an issue.
In my opinion he is just a lot better than the rest of these. To me....that makes him a strong single.

dalakhani · #7 10-31-2006, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

You might want to read a bit more carefully. I did not call him a "lock." I said he was "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race." That is different. There are too many good horses in these races for anyone to be a lock, but after watching all of his races multiple times....I believe he is a two-turn horse. It was not the two-turns that got him last time....it was the garbage surface he was running on. The fact that he is by Thunder Gulch also suggests (although obviously does not ensure) that stretching out should not be an issue.
In my opinion he is just a lot better than the rest of these. To me....that makes him a strong single.

Fair enough and perhaps you will be proven correct.

Personally, I think calling a horse thats never won around two turns "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a bc race" is not logical thinking. It would be nice to assume that the surface is what did him in at keeneland (i agree actually) but we arent sure of this. It could very well have been the extra turn that made him hang. Good luck on that single. I will play Circular Quay but not single him.

As for my own single, i will try hurricane run in the turf.

Danzig · #8 10-31-2006, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

miraja2 · #9 10-31-2006, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

I sort of see what you are saying....but I just do not agree. If you use that as a handicapping tool that just means you are taking into account things that Azeri or Personal Ensign did years ago to handicap a race that is happening now! That just does not make sense to me. If it is a tool that works for you.....feel free.....but I take each race individually. I am going to bet a favorite or try to beat a favorite based EXCLUSIVELY on what I think of THAT horse and the competition, rather than horses that have run in that race in the past.

jpops757 · #10 11-01-2006, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

You can take numbers and prove or disprove about anything after the fact. Just look for the right numbers. Kinda like if the 3 hole has produced more winners tha the 4 hole. Really whats the differance in these 2? The more important thing is who is inside and who is outside of you. Im not knocking statistics , just pointing out some of the very narrow barrings they have on the races.