Bulls eye on Bernardini

Pointg5 · #1 10-31-2006, 05:05 AM

I think Lava Man will give him hell, not to say LM wins in doing this, but this is one game horse, he ran so hard in the Pacific Classic last year that they had to van him off, he ran himself into the ground and wasn't much after that race, based on his recent figs, he looks to be rounding into form. I don't think Bernardini needs the lead, but when he goes for it, LM will make him earn it and could take them both out...I still think Bernardini wins, but the problem is going to be where to make your run? If you do it on the backstretch before the turn, you run the risk of LM and Bernardini running themselves into the ground...If you do it on the turn for home, LM can navigate turns so quickly, it might put him too far ahead...

I think it's a huge mistake to assume, because Bernardini hasn't been asked that he can automatically go alot faster, that just doesn't happen. In fact Oracle mentioned this that studies have shown horses run their best #'s in easy romps. I still think Bernardini wins and he will be the single on about 80% of my tickets, but I will use Invasior and Lava Man just in case a speed duel sets up or LM runs off of the turn...

jpops757 · #2 10-31-2006, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I think Lava Man will give him hell, not to say LM wins in doing this, but this is one game horse, he ran so hard in the Pacific Classic last year that they had to van him off, he ran himself into the ground and wasn't much after that race, based on his recent figs, he looks to be rounding into form. I don't think Bernardini needs the lead, but when he goes for it, LM will make him earn it and could take them both out...I still think Bernardini wins, but the problem is going to be where to make your run? If you do it on the backstretch before the turn, you run the risk of LM and Bernardini running themselves into the ground...If you do it on the turn for home, LM can navigate turns so quickly, it might put him too far ahead...

I think it's a huge mistake to assume, because Bernardini hasn't been asked that he can automatically go alot faster, that just doesn't happen. In fact Oracle mentioned this that studies have shown horses run their best #'s in easy romps. I still think Bernardini wins and he will be the single on about 80% of my tickets, but I will use Invasior and Lava Man just in case a speed duel sets up or LM runs off of the turn...

I agree that Lava Mans sxcelance at running the turns could cause Bermie to make a premature move for fear of hin stealing the race and thus setting it up for a deep closer[Invasor]. All that said early position going into and comming out of the first turn could a;ter the pace and the race could turn into a circle jerk. Lotta quality here and a stubbed toe and a little luck can alter the outcome.

avance2000 · #3 10-31-2006, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

studies have shown horses run their best #'s in easy romps.

absolutely correct. people who assume that bernardini will be able to run even faster if he is hooked in the stretch and the jock goes to the stick are....in a all probablility....just flat wrong.
that is one of the reasons i prefer invasor.

Bernardini · #4 10-31-2006, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

absolutely correct. people who assume that bernardini will be able to run even faster if he is hooked in the stretch and the jock goes to the stick are....in a all probablility....just flat wrong.
that is one of the reasons i prefer invasor.

Let me see, if you owned Invasor, what would you tell your jock ?? Dont worry about Bernardini ?? or tail him till he makes a move ??

dalakhani · #5 10-31-2006, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bernardini

Let me see, if you owned Invasor, what would you tell your jock ?? Dont worry about Bernardini ?? or tail him till he makes a move ??

Certainly, those wouldnt be your ONLY two choices. In a 14 horse field, the name of the game isnt simply "beat bernardini". Who is to say that Bernardini is even the best horse in the race?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #6 10-31-2006, 11:38 AM

ill say it..show me another horse that has 4 112 plus beyers in a row..

dalakhani · #7 10-31-2006, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ill say it..show me another horse that has 4 112 plus beyers in a row..

Okay, what are his timeform ratings?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #8 10-31-2006, 11:54 AM

you should know that...whatever..you will see on bc day he was and is the best in the game right now....of course you try and beat him as a player ..but dont go too crazy cuz in the end he will win,,

ateamstupid · #9 10-31-2006, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Who is to say that Bernardini is even the best horse in the race?

Anybody who's seen the horse run this year and isn't blinded by their Barbaro shrines..

SniperSB23 · #10 10-31-2006, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Anybody who's seen the horse run this year and isn't blinded by their Barbaro shrines..

I'm not a fan of Barbaro in the least but don't buy that Bernardini has done anything to prove he is better than Invasor yet. Perhaps he will in the BC but I think people are seriously overrating him and underrating Invasor.

Pointg5 · #11 10-31-2006, 12:39 PM

Invasior and Bernardini have the same best Sheet #, I think it's safe to say that they both could go forward. Bernardini has earned his in romps, while Invasior has had to work to get his, I think it's a better sign that Invasior worked to get his, because horses run their best in easy romps like Bernardini has had...Like I said I think Bernardini is the best horse, but Invasior and LM will make him work and if he can't handle the heat...Either way we find out on Saturday...