Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:18 AM
Betsy Betsy is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,303
Default

The BSF for THAS seems rather low given that he ran 1:33 and change on a track that was hardly blazing; he got a 105 for the PA Derby on a track that, while earlier in the card was not fast, did quicken up later on.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:27 AM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Steve, what did Blingo get Friday at HP, 3rd race?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:53 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
Steve, what did Blingo get Friday at HP, 3rd race?
81
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-27-2011, 11:06 AM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
81
Thanks.

How did that race comeback only an 81 while the Matriarch got a 95, with only a 2/5ths of a second difference in final times?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:56 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy View Post
The BSF for THAS seems rather low given that he ran 1:33 and change on a track that was hardly blazing; he got a 105 for the PA Derby on a track that, while earlier in the card was not fast, did quicken up later on.
It seemed perfectly in line intellectually if you look at the only other mile race on the card, the 5th, at 2YO maiden race. That race went 2 4/5 slower, or approximately 30 Beyer points at one mile, and given the talent of those 2YOs, 106 seems more than reasonable.

Aside from that, what makes you think his win yesterday was substantially better than his effort in the PA Derby?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:57 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Suddenly On Fire Baby looks particularly mediocre.

I watched most of Churchill yesterday and what I saw made it seem like the rail was very strong.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-27-2011, 11:11 AM
Betsy Betsy is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,303
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
It seemed perfectly in line intellectually if you look at the only other mile race on the card, the 5th, at 2YO maiden race. That race went 2 4/5 slower, or approximately 30 Beyer points at one mile, and given the talent of those 2YOs, 106 seems more than reasonable.

Aside from that, what makes you think his win yesterday was substantially better than his effort in the PA Derby?
I actually thought he ran a big race in the PA Derby, but a track record (at a sprint) had been set the race before. 1:33 and change is just extremely fast, but aside from the time, he did beat older horses (even though the field wasn't that great). I don't like being fixated on BSF because I don't think they capture everything about a race, but I always end up fixated anyway. I can see now how a 106 is fair - and not that it's anything to complain about, which I did. I'm also still on a high. This race was one of the most satisfying wins I've had as a fan and I'm just happy he got a grade 1, which I hope is the first of several.

I agree also that he probably shouldn't be on the ballot for 3 year old of the year because he didn't run much of the year - the best part of his season was compressed into 2 months. That's fine - I expect him to be a very good older horse and just getting him back to even better than he was before was an accomplishment.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-27-2011, 02:26 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy View Post
I actually thought he ran a big race in the PA Derby, but a track record (at a sprint) had been set the race before. 1:33 and change is just extremely fast, but aside from the time, he did beat older horses (even though the field wasn't that great). I don't like being fixated on BSF because I don't think they capture everything about a race, but I always end up fixated anyway. I can see now how a 106 is fair - and not that it's anything to complain about, which I did. I'm also still on a high. This race was one of the most satisfying wins I've had as a fan and I'm just happy he got a grade 1, which I hope is the first of several.

I agree also that he probably shouldn't be on the ballot for 3 year old of the year because he didn't run much of the year - the best part of his season was compressed into 2 months. That's fine - I expect him to be a very good older horse and just getting him back to even better than he was before was an accomplishment.
I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-27-2011, 04:48 PM
Betsy Betsy is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,303
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.
His trips are not flukish - he has speed and is tractable, so he often makes his trips. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens when he's looked in the eye at this point - I'm not going to bother speculating as there's really no point.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-27-2011, 06:56 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.
I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-27-2011, 07:10 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.
No way Webber ships to Dubai unless they buy out the soup company
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-27-2011, 07:20 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.
The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-28-2011, 08:56 AM
VOL JACK's Avatar
VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: @VOLJACK79
Posts: 2,578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.
It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:07 PM
Betsy Betsy is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,303
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.
He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:15 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
Default

To Honor and Serve was switching in leads in the PA Derby because he was reacting to the whip.
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-27-2011, 10:41 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy View Post
He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.
Being on the wrong lead is not an excuse, it's a bad sign, Alydar being the popular exception (although he simply never switched to his right lead IIRC). In a horse with as many starts as To Honor And Serve, it usually signifies stamina or--worse yet--soundness concerns.

He also swapped back to his left lead in the BC Classic.

Good point, though, about 10f not really mattering anymore. It's a shame the Suburban is only 9f and that the Pimlico Special is once again no more. Mott doesn't shy from shipping west, so the Big Cap and Hollywood Gold Cup are technically still on the table, however unlikely.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.