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#1
10-29-2006, 09:13 PM
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I think that if u go by final times and figures, yes, Commentator does fit. But then so does Dubai Escapade. Both have run some really huge races in the 6.5-7f area. But can either of them do it without the lead? Whether or not the stumble was the cause of his bad race last time, and taking into account that some of the races he had an easy lead and didn't HAVE to go faster, the fact is that Commentator has NEVER run a sub-22 second opening quarter mile and he's going to have to run in the area of 21 2/5 or faster to have the lead here. Otherwise, he's going to have to show that he can win without the lead and I think that if u are going to bet on him, u better hope that the last race wasn't an indication of how he'll do without the lead. Personally, I don't see him doing it here. For the same reason, I am discounting Dubai Escapade's chances, although she at least does show two sub-22 second opening quarters. Once, she had the lead and won. The other time, she didn't and lost. Again, both of these horses fit if u go by final times and figures but if u go by the way the race figures to be run, I don't think either fit.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
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#2
10-29-2006, 09:17 PM
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I'm with Glorious on this. I don't see Commentator winning. But the talk here has given me enough reasoning to put $2 to win on the horse just in case. I think he gets cooked, and the lack of seasoning will not help either. Furthermore, he needs a clear lead and he'll have to run the fastest he's ever run to do that. I don't see that happening.
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#3
10-29-2006, 09:30 PM
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I agree as well. I think it is safe to assume that Bornordaro is going to get the lead. A horse I havent heard too much about is Simor Lure. I heard is worked sucked but I think the horse isnt all that bad. It is still hard to pick anyone other than HH, but I keep going back to the Housebuster debacle.
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