Choosing a winner !!!

[Bernardini]

yeah, I see your point... but I would still like for PD to hit the Board (just so that i can make some money).

seems like you dont like Lava Man... interesting !!! Im assuming you'll go for Invasor or Dini ?

[repent]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

yeah, I see your point... but I would still like for PD to hit the Board (just so that i can make some money).

seems like you dont like Lava Man... interesting !!! Im assuming you'll go for Invasor or Dini ?

quite the opposite.
I like Lava Man a lot.
how can I not like a horse that is equally effective on turf and dirt?

i just dont think he has a shot to win a race like the BCC.
its not like this is a CA horse like Tiznow who has been winning outside of CA.
hes going to be pressured on the lead and eaten alive in the stretch by a true superstar named Berardini.

Bernardini is just a freak.
maybe in another year, Lava man would have a shot.
in another year, there would be a lot of reasons to like a horse like Invasor who has not lost in the States.
but this is this year.
its similar to 2004 when Ghostzapper was just a lot better than any other horse and the only one that was even close to him(St Liam) could not run in the BCC.

From a class standpoint, I think the only horse that figures with Bernardini is David Junior and he is going to have to move way up on dirt to beat Bernardini.
Im not counting on it.


Repent

[skippy3481]

Repent, I'm exactly opposite. I am absolute money on dirt, but i couldn't pick a turf winner to save my life.

[dalakhani]

For me, it depends on where im playing. I use a different rationale depending on the level of track.

For instance, when playing mountaineer, I definitely rely more on class than anything else. At that track on a given card, you could have 5 5000 dollar claiming races at different class levels and often times one can throw pace scenario and speed figs out the window. If you dont believe me, than try it.

If playing the big boy tracks, I use more of the aforementioned tools. Speed figs, connections, pace scenario, pps at the track and distance, class. I tend to center more on class and trainer percentage and use speed figs to eliminate non contenders rather than to find a winner.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

Repent, I'm exactly opposite. I am absolute money on dirt, but i couldn't pick a turf winner to save my life.

Turf is the great equalizer. I am much more like Repent. Often times, you will have larger fields and favorites can more easily be done in by the trip. Jockeys play a MUCH greater role.

[Thunder Gulch]

When choosing a winner, early speed rules. When choosing a wager, a long list of other factors enter the mix and it varies from race to race.