Giacomo = No chance

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by repent

exactly.
its easy to say who will not win.
tell me who will win.

or at least if you are going to start a thread about taking a stand against a horse, start one about a favorite or short priced horse you are taking a stand against.

Im hoping nobody is going to start a thread about how Super Frolic can not win either.

no offense to the author of the thread, just to the idea behind it.


Repent

None taken. As for who will win......I have no clue!!!! Personally I would not mind an entire thread about each of the horses in a big race like the classic. What if someone did want to start a thread that was all about Super Frolic's chances? What would be wrong with that? Maybe there are people who would argue that he has a chance to hit the board, and want to make their case and argue with the rest of us. That would be fine with me.
And by the way, I didn't just say that he would not win....I said he would not hit the board. Still not a tremendously bold statement I know.....but slightly bolder than you gave me credit for.

By the way repent......great signature.

[repent]

Originally Posted by miraja2

None taken. As for who will win......I have no clue!!!! Personally I would not mind an entire thread about each of the horses in a big race like the classic. What if someone did want to start a thread that was all about Super Frolic's chances? What would be wrong with that? Maybe there are people who would argue that he has a chance to hit the board, and want to make their case and argue with the rest of us. That would be fine with me.
And by the way, I didn't just say that he would not win....I said he would not hit the board. Still not a tremendously bold statement I know.....but slightly bolder than you gave me credit for.

By the way repent......great signature.

thanks man.
and i was just agreeing with scuds statement b/c we get alot of threads about who will not win.
my comments were not really specific to anything you typed.

agree, i just dont see Giacomo as having done anything to suggest that he can be competitive in a race like this.
he has no shot.

Bernardini is going to have to fall on his face to lose,
unless David Junior moves way up on dirt.
thats the only scenario I can see where Bernardini could be in a serious fight.
GW could move up 10 lengths on dirt and it still would not put him on Bernardini's level.
best of luck to you in this race.
Im staying away from it except in the late pick 4 and I will single Bernardini in the pick 6 most likely.


Repent

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by repent

agree, i just dont see Giacomo as having done anything to suggest that he can be competitive in a race like this.
he has no shot.

Bernardini is going to have to fall on his face to lose

I can see it all now "...and Bernardini stumbles leaving the gate...he went right down on his nose..." People keep saying stuff like that and just watch it actually happen. If you have a dream about Castellano falling off whatever you do don't breathe a word to the jock for pete's sake. We all saw what happened to Shoemaker.

[Scav]

I have already stated that I will quit gambling for 3 years if Giacomo wins the BC....I like gambling so I am not going to make one of those ridiculous ones, but if he does win, not a penny will go through any type of windows until BC 2009.....

[repent]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have already stated that I will quit gambling for 3 years if Giacomo wins the BC....I like gambling so I am not going to make one of those ridiculous ones, but if he does win, not a penny will go through any type of windows until BC 2009.....

hes is pretty much one of the top 5 overmatched horses of the day.
you gambling future is safe. no worries.

Repent

[Scav]

Originally Posted by repent

hes is pretty much one of the top 5 overmatched horses of the day.
you gambling future is safe. no worries.

Repent

Thanks Repent, after today, i would rather have him win the thing under wraps

[repent]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thanks Repent, after today, i would rather have him win the thing under wraps

lol,
well at least you are not jerry who lost 5K or whatever on Cambiocorsa.lol


Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I can see it all now "...and Bernardini stumbles leaving the gate...he went right down on his nose..." People keep saying stuff like that and just watch it actually happen. If you have a dream about Castellano falling off whatever you do don't breathe a word to the jock for pete's sake. We all saw what happened to Shoemaker.

lol,
maybe.

but this is such an athletic horse that it does not matter.
stumbling, bad break, whatever...............he would seriously have to fall down to compromise his chances of winning.
he could break dead last and it would not concern me one bit.

Repent

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

thanks man.
and i was just agreeing with scuds statement b/c we get alot of threads about who will not win.
my comments were not really specific to anything you typed.

agree, i just dont see Giacomo as having done anything to suggest that he can be competitive in a race like this.
he has no shot.

Bernardini is going to have to fall on his face to lose,
unless David Junior moves way up on dirt.
thats the only scenario I can see where Bernardini could be in a serious fight.
GW could move up 10 lengths on dirt and it still would not put him on Bernardini's level.
best of luck to you in this race.
Im staying away from it except in the late pick 4 and I will single Bernardini in the pick 6 most likely.


Repent

i disagree that david junior has to 'move way up on dirt', he just has to handle it like he does the turf.
bernie would definitely be a 'bet against' here, as his odds will do nothing to inspire a bet come race day--and of course any horse can have an off day. you can find value in this race just like many others. obviously he would be used in any pick 4's and 6's....

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i disagree that david junior has to 'move way up on dirt', he just has to handle it like he does the turf.
bernie would definitely be a 'bet against' here, as his odds will do nothing to inspire a bet come race day--and of course any horse can have an off day. you can find value in this race just like many others. obviously he would be used in any pick 4's and 6's....

if DJ had been winning on turf the way Falbrav was in 2003, then I would agree with your analysis Zeig.

Falbrav's 2003 turf form was on par Bernardini's 2006 dirt form.

but DJ has been beaten in Europe this year and althought impressive, not dominant the way Bernardini has been here.

I will disagree with you here while maintaining a ton of respect for DJ.
He is the only horse that concerns me at all when singling Bernardini in the pick 6(which I think is likely to be the case for me).


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[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

if DJ had been winning on turf the way Falbrav was in 2003, then I would agree with your analysis Zeig.

Falbrav's 2003 turf form was on par Bernardini's 2006 dirt form.

but DJ has been beaten in Europe this year and althought impressive, not dominant the way Bernardini has been here.

I will disagree with you here while maintaining a ton of respect for DJ.
He is the only horse that concerns me at all when singling Bernardini in the pick 6(which I think is likely to be the case for me).


Repent

i thought D jr was unbeaten this year??

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i thought D jr was unbeaten this year??

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

i haven't seen anything on him since they said he was training up to the cup...wonder how he's doing anyway?? i think several others have a better shot than him here, i don't think he's the second coming of giant's causeway.

[repent]

Originally Posted by repent

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

and Zeig,
Im not disrespecting DJ here.
I hope nobody thinks that.
im his biggest fan and thought he was the best 10f horse in England(better than OBoard and Electro).

but I do feel he would need to be even better on dirt than he was on turf to beat Bernardini.

whats cool is that all these Euros are gambling and running on the dirt this year.
I wish Falbrav's connections had done the same in 2003.
if there was ever a BCT horse that should have run in the BCC, that was it.


Repent

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by miraja2

None taken. As for who will win......I have no clue!!!! Personally I would not mind an entire thread about each of the horses in a big race like the classic. What if someone did want to start a thread that was all about Super Frolic's chances? What would be wrong with that? Maybe there are people who would argue that he has a chance to hit the board, and want to make their case and argue with the rest of us. That would be fine with me.
And by the way, I didn't just say that he would not win....I said he would not hit the board. Still not a tremendously bold statement I know.....but slightly bolder than you gave me credit for.

By the way repent......great signature.

So,you started a thread to warn people that a 30/1-40/1 shot isn't gunna hit the board(no matter the pace.)Isn't that right? Do you really want everybody to start a thread about the longshots they don't think will hit the board?

Anyways,no 'Pent,haven't seen anything written by the lune you mentioned,but I don't check the old board.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

So,you started a thread to warn people that a 30/1-40/1 shot isn't gunna hit the board(no matter the pace.)Isn't that right? Do you really want everybody to start a thread about the longshots they don't think will hit the board?

Anyways,no 'Pent,haven't seen anything written by the lune you mentioned,but I don't check the old board.

Well.....yeah sort of.
Basically I just wanted to start a thread to see if there were a lot of people who agreed with avance2000 about giacomo being an "interesting" horse in the race. I suppose I could have started the thread by just asking "What do people think about Giacomo's chances?" but I just figured I would jump right in with my opinion. As for the other longshots, if people wanted to start threads that became discussions about the horse's chances....I really would not have a problem with it. If I was interested........I would read it and if I was not......I wouldn't.
And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic. I think it might help people cap the race.

Anyway scuds, I am sorry that expressing my opinion about a Kentucky Derby winner's chances in the BCC pissed you off so much. That was not my intention.

[repent]

Originally Posted by miraja2

And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic..

good gosh,
please no Brother Derek, Suave, or Super Frolic threads.

I would not have picked BroDerek to win any of those Cal Cup races today, much less the BCC.


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[miraja2]

Originally Posted by repent

good gosh,
please no Brother Derek, Suave, or Super Frolic threads.

I would not have picked BroDerek to win any of those Cal Cup races today, much less the BCC.


Repent

See I think a thread like that would be fun. Who will finish first among those horses? How many lengths will they be defeated by? I say let's debate mediocrity!!!!!!

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well.....yeah sort of.
Basically I just wanted to start a thread to see if there were a lot of people who agreed with avance2000 about giacomo being an "interesting" horse in the race. I suppose I could have started the thread by just asking "What do people think about Giacomo's chances?" but I just figured I would jump right in with my opinion. As for the other longshots, if people wanted to start threads that became discussions about the horse's chances....I really would not have a problem with it. If I was interested........I would read it and if I was not......I wouldn't.
And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic. I think it might help people cap the race.

Anyway scuds, I am sorry that expressing my opinion about a Kentucky Derby winner's chances in the BCC pissed you off so much. That was not my intention.

my point was this: you can't really make a case that giacomo is going to be a factor in this race, but nobody could really make a case for him before last year's deby either. that didn't stop him then.
are horses like invasor and bernardini better than giacomo......yes! but so were afleet alex and bellamy road.
a lot of these horses have question marks:
-will they like the dirt?
-will they like ch. downs?
-will a huge crowd spook them?

giacomo has already answered all of those questions......on this track...at this ditance. i think that is significant.
if you want to go on the record saying he won't hit the board....that is fine with me.....but i disagree with scuds......i think you are making a significant statement miraja. it is significant because in my mind you are just wrong. i'll go on the record now....giacomo will be one of the first four horses to cross the finish line. period.

[Pointg5]

I made a similar post about Jazil before the Belmont, that worked out well for me...

Giacomo's numbers give him the ability to run 3rd and possibly 2nd with a meltdown, also PD's numbers are very similar to last year, there's no reason he can't run 3rd again...

CR mentioned this about a month ago, the key to the tri is to get someone that no one is expecting to run 2nd, and I think that could be LR and if FA is back, he could do it. Bash LR all you want, but his numbers are solid coming in here...