Pace in the Classic

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Bernardini and Invasor are gonna get the best trips plain and simple. Lava Man wants to leave the pack and should but will have alot of company at the front. If somehow he does not get the lead, you could probably count him out.

This race will not be won by a front runner, its a stalker race

Sorry, but one look at the PP's should make it clear that Lava Man is perfectly happy to run with the pack. A quick scan of his 34 starts shows perhaps two races where he had even a 1-length lead after a half mile. If the pace is fast, Lava Man has shown he can settle into 3rd or 4th, as he did in the Sunshine Million in January and the Hollywood GC in July. There's no need to "count him out" if he doesn't get the lead.

I won't be betting him, though, because I think he will be overbet.

--Dunbar