Pace in the Classic

mclem10011 · #1 10-28-2006, 01:03 PM

So you see Lava Man trying to be on the lead, or close up not trying to steal it on the front end, but be right there? I could see that, but I could also see Lava Man laying back a bit with Bernardini, and having a possible match race to the wire. As for Lawyer Ron, who knows what Pletcher's plans are, this horse is the wildcard of the bunch! I agree with you about Premium Tap, off the pace would seem to be his game, but this may not be the race to fall to far behind IMO. I just watched Perfect Drift work, he looked very good and as tough as always, and in my exotics for sure.

pba1817 · #2 10-28-2006, 01:40 PM

IMO, if Lava Man is going to run his race and be a factor to win, he has to be dueling or alone on the front end. I realize that CD is souped up on the big racing days, but it still doesn't play as speed favoring as the CA tracks have been this past year. That even goes for the turf races he won as well.

I see the most likely pace pressure coming from Lawyer Ron, he is an obvious run-off type who cannot make 10f. Also, if he was being put in here with serious consideration to win, J. Velazquez would be named to ride because Flower Alley has looked like ass in his recent starts.

Bernardini and Invasor should get the dream trips here, sitting 3-4-5 early and waiting to pounce. This is all considering that fact that Lawyer Ron goes out with Lava Man, if he doesn't, Nakatani should be able to slow down enough to hold off the cavalry charge.

An unknown for me is George Washington.

I think on the bottom half of tri/supers is very interesting. Its hard to see any complete throw-outs entered here. My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

brianwspencer · #3 10-28-2006, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

I think on the bottom half of tri/supers is very interesting. Its hard to see any complete throw-outs entered here. My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

You'll throw out David Junior before Suave, Super Frolic, Giacomo and Lawyer Ron?

Have fun with that one, looks like there are lots of tickets to cash with that bunch.

miraja2 · #4 10-28-2006, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

If you are playing exotics....you are nuts to throw out Perfect Drift. Betting a tri or a super without PD is almost always a mistake. A lot of these horses are big question marks. Could George Washington win.....yes. Could he finish last.....yes. Perfect Drift will not do either of those things. He will be somewhere between second and fifth. That is what he does. Leave him out at your own peril.

Bernardini · #5 10-28-2006, 06:47 PM

Which brings us to how these horses prepared for BCC?? Bernardini was pulled off the lead, and Lava Man was put to lead. Invasor has been outta action for sometime, seems more fitting for him to stay away from any pace scenario. GW and DJ questionable on dirt, but EU horses traditionally come off the pace. Prefect Drift stays away from the lead as well. If I put the cards together, the pace will be slow, who ever breaks on top inherits the lead. Here are my possible front runners: Premium Tap, Sauve, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek... I think they will pull Lava off and same goes for the other two favorites(dini and invasor). And now for the eventual winner: “Lava Man” though I will be pulling for Bernardini and Perfect Drift.

#6 10-28-2006, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bernardini

Which brings us to how these horses prepared for BCC?? Bernardini was pulled off the lead, and Lava Man was put to lead. Invasor has been outta action for sometime, seems more fitting for him to stay away from any pace scenario. GW and DJ questionable on dirt, but EU horses traditionally come off the pace. Prefect Drift stays away from the lead as well. If I put the cards together, the pace will be slow, who ever breaks on top inherits the lead. Here are my possible front runners: Premium Tap, Sauve, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek... I think they will pull Lava off and same goes for the other two favorites(dini and invasor). And now for the eventual winner: “Lava Man” though I will be pulling for Bernardini and Perfect Drift.

I've been hoping for a quick pace in this race, but as I study PPs I'm beginning to think that it will be more of a controlled pace with a host of horses involved. I'm starting to think that this one will be decided by who makes their final move (among the leaders/stalkers) at the right time. A mistimed move, be it too early or too late, will be fatal

Danzig · #7 10-28-2006, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sirbarton

I've been hoping for a quick pace in this race, but as I study PPs I'm beginning to think that it will be more of a controlled pace with a host of horses involved. I'm starting to think that this one will be decided by who makes their final move (among the leaders/stalkers) at the right time. A mistimed move, be it too early or too late, will be fatal

love your name btw...if any horse has been 'forgotten', it's your namesake!

#8 10-28-2006, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

love your name btw...if any horse has been 'forgotten', it's your namesake!

Thanks. I had a hard time finding names for message boards, etc. because all the recent names were already taken. I even tried thundergulch, not that I bet on him in the Derby--BUT MY MOM HAD ME MAKE A BET ON HIM! She gave me ten bucks and said "bet on that horse named thunder-something for me." Should've listened to her. Anyway, I decided to go way back in time for a name, hoping I would hit on one that nobody had. Plus the "barton" rhymes with my last name.

dalakhani · #9 10-28-2006, 10:49 PM

Im thinking quick pace unless some of you think that these horses will get a lobotomy before the BC. Or perhaps you think they will fan out seven wide stalking just behind the leader because many of these dont want to run midpack.

46 half and 1:11 for the mile.

#10 10-28-2006, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Im thinking quick pace unless some of you think that these horses will get a lobobomy before the BC. Or perhaps you think they will fan out seven wide stalking just behind the leader because many of these dont want to run midpack.

46 half and 1:11 for the mile.

Believe me, I hope you're right. I've got a couple that I want to play that will definitely come from off the pace.

SundayStar · #11 10-28-2006, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Im thinking quick pace unless some of you think that these horses will get a lobotomy before the BC. Or perhaps you think they will fan out seven wide stalking just behind the leader because many of these dont want to run midpack.

46 half and 1:11 for the mile.

that mile split is faster than my yugo

Bernardini · #12 10-28-2006, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

If you are playing exotics....you are nuts to throw out Perfect Drift. Betting a tri or a super without PD is almost always a mistake. A lot of these horses are big question marks. Could George Washington win.....yes. Could he finish last.....yes. Perfect Drift will not do either of those things. He will be somewhere between second and fifth. That is what he does. Leave him out at your own peril.

i agree 100%, PD is very consistent.