10/1 (BEL): JCGC, Beldame, JHTC, Vosburgh, FlwrBwl (G1's), Kelso (G2)

[King Glorious]

To think Mo will win the Classic is to not only think he's the best horse in the country but that he is by far the best. Handicapping what looks like the probables for the race and obviously assuming a fast track with trouble free trips for all, Mo would have to break a lot of rules to win. Not that he can't do it but to say it's gonna be a tall order is an understatement. I spent several hours today watching the Kelso, Wood, Whitney, Woodward, JCGC, Delaware Cap, Beldame, and Goodwood and the more I watch, Havre de Grace stands out to and Mo looks more and more doubtful. The way Game on Dude ran in the Goodwood and believing Baffert will give the same instruction again, it's very hard to see Mo anywhere near the pace, putting away the leaders, and holding off the closers at this distance. I think he's the best horse in the country but he's up against it.

[Calzone Lord]

Game On Dude would have won the Goodwood by about 6 lengths with a competent ride.

He overcame horribly stupid tactics and beat a stunningly bad field.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Game On Dude would have won the Goodwood by about 6 lengths with a competent ride.

He overcame horribly stupid tactics and beat a stunningly bad field.

After the race I said something similar. The problem is she seems convinced the only way he can win is on the lead. I'm not sure she's wrong either, but no way he does that in the Classic. But he might really set it up for Flat Out, who seemed way closer than he wants to be on Saturday.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

After the race I said something similar. The problem is she seems convinced the only way he can win is on the lead. I'm not sure she's wrong either, but no way he does that in the Classic. But he might really set it up for Flat Out, who seemed way closer than he wants to be on Saturday.

Baffert said on the ESPN telecast he told her to put him on the lead, because that's how he likes to roll.

[Travis Stone]

Uncle Mo is obviously very talented, and the sky is the limit in terms of his ability. When healthy, we've seen what he can do and there is no denying that.

I thought Jerry Bailey made an interesting comment in that his Kelso reminded him of Ghostzapper, and he then said how Ghostzapper was able to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, so we'll see.

Obviously Uncle Mo has a long ways to go before he's the next Ghostzapper (or maybe just one brilliant start in the Classic), but for my money, with short odds in the starting gate, I think you have to think about betting against him.

An easy lead in the slop at Belmont Park going one mile is totally different than a pressured pace going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. I have a hard time believing he would have sustained that pace last year and pulled away late, much less held off Blame and Zenyatta... and even Fly Down or Lookin at Lucky.

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

If he wins - fantastic - he lives up to everything he's hinted at since last summer and is a star. And maybe with the right wagering, a bet or two can still be hit. But as of right now, there's enough gas in the race to make me look elsewhere.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

I don't see him being anywhere near a 109.1 3/4s in the Classic.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't see him being anywhere near a 109.1 3/4s in the Classic.

Last year they went 1:11.01, and the top four horses after 6f's ended-up 8th, 12th, 10th and 11th. Obviously times on different days, on different tracks with different conditions cannot be compared without plenty of asterisks, including how this year's field ultimately shakes-out.

He went 1:09 and change last weekend over a wet track with absolutely zero pressure whatsoever. Easy leads translate to big figs and big performances all the time. He can win the race, but if he's going to be something-to-five in the starting gate, I can't see how he offers any value.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Uncle Mo is obviously very talented, and the sky is the limit in terms of his ability. When healthy, we've seen what he can do and there is no denying that.

I thought Jerry Bailey made an interesting comment in that his Kelso reminded him of Ghostzapper, and he then said how Ghostzapper was able to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, so we'll see.

Obviously Uncle Mo has a long ways to go before he's the next Ghostzapper (or maybe just one brilliant start in the Classic), but for my money, with short odds in the starting gate, I think you have to think about betting against him.

An easy lead in the slop at Belmont Park going one mile is totally different than a pressured pace going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. I have a hard time believing he would have sustained that pace last year and pulled away late, much less held off Blame and Zenyatta... and even Fly Down or Lookin at Lucky.

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

If he wins - fantastic - he lives up to everything he's hinted at since last summer and is a star. And maybe with the right wagering, a bet or two can still be hit. But as of right now, there's enough gas in the race to make me look elsewhere.

He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

You mean when he was a 4yo?

It's safe to say UM was a better 2yo than GZ was, even with GZ's eye popping debut.

GZ certainly had a better 3yo campaign than UM has thus far, but was he a better 3yo??

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

Let's keep in mind who was Ghostzappers trainer. The horse by many accounts was a complete laimo and still ran like a bullet train, all Frankel's stock during his reign seemed bullet proof so while you have to love Ghostzapper and beg for another like him keep some perspective on the drugs in his system

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Baffert said on the ESPN telecast he told her to put him on the lead, because that's how he likes to roll.

I caught that. Baffert seemed pretty pissed after the race I thought. Not really at her, but just in general.

[TouchOfGrey]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I caught that. Baffert seemed pretty pissed after the race I thought. Not really at her, but just in general.

I think they said on HRTV that he wasn't happy with the ride Martin Garcia gave Drill earlier.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey

I think they said on HRTV that he wasn't happy with the ride Martin Garcia gave Drill earlier.

Yeah, they tried to ask him, but he didn't really get into it. I didn't think the ride was bad at all. Maybe he should have been a little closer, but his horse was never beating Creative Cause that day.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To think Mo will win the Classic is to not only think he's the best horse in the country but that he is by far the best. Handicapping what looks like the probables for the race and obviously assuming a fast track with trouble free trips for all, Mo would have to break a lot of rules to win. Not that he can't do it but to say it's gonna be a tall order is an understatement. I spent several hours today watching the Kelso, Wood, Whitney, Woodward, JCGC, Delaware Cap, Beldame, and Goodwood and the more I watch, Havre de Grace stands out to and Mo looks more and more doubtful. The way Game on Dude ran in the Goodwood and believing Baffert will give the same instruction again, it's very hard to see Mo anywhere near the pace, putting away the leaders, and holding off the closers at this distance. I think he's the best horse in the country but he's up against it.

It really won't matter a whole lot where he is in regards to the pace. Obviously I'd love to see him go 47.2 loose on the lead, but if he's on his game, I don't think it will matter.