9/18 (WO): Woodbine Mile, Northern Dancer (G1's), Canadian (G2)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

I would lean more towards the side that he may have won, had he had atleast a graded win in europe or a past record of successes in NA, but that's the subjective part of the game.

The difference between what it takes to win in Europe and what it takes to win in North America is far more nuanced than you realize.

And Dahoss is right--his trip and performance need not be looked at in relation to his previous form (which is much better than you're giving him credit for). He could have looked like a completely hopeless 99-1 shot before the race, but that wouldn't change the fact that he had an impossible trip and was clearly winning with any sort of clean trip/competent ride.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The difference between what it takes to win in Europe and what it takes to win in North America is far more nuanced than you realize.

And Dahoss is right--his trip and performance need not be looked at in relation to his previous form (which is much better than you're giving him credit for). He could have looked like a completely hopeless 99-1 shot before the race, but that wouldn't change the fact that he had an impossible trip and was clearly winning with any sort of clean trip/competent ride.

I think it is a mistake to term Spencer's ride as incompetent, was the result a bad one, obviously it was. But you will know as I am pretty sure you will, in europe, the riders there would rather race with cover, save ground to a fault rather than lose ground or race without cover. I thought Spencer achieved this well until midstretch, his mistake was he miscalculated a seam opening up in the stretch, watch Sarafina's run in the Qatar Prix Foy where Lemaire did the impossible of having her behind of wall of horses in a 4 horse field. The only difference was he forced his way through without the stewards taking him down.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think it is a mistake to term Spencer's ride as incompetent, was the result a bad one, obviously it was. But you will know as I am pretty sure you will, in europe, the riders there would rather race with cover, save ground to a fault rather than lose ground or race without cover. I thought Spencer achieved this well until midstretch, his mistake was he miscalculated a seam opening up in the stretch, watch Sarafina's run in the Qatar Prix Foy where Lemaire did the impossible of having her behind of wall of horses in a 4 horse field. The only difference was he forced his way through without the stewards taking him down.

I can safely say that if I have in fact deterred this type of "discussion" with my "attacking" then I'm glad.

I can't think of a rider that has gotten horses beat in big races over here more than Jaime Spencer. Races he had no business losing. The amazing thing is his sample size is so limited, yet it seems like every single year you can count on him to totally mess up a ride in a big race. I don't know who his agent is, but he deserves a raise.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I can safely say that if I have in fact deterred this type of "discussion" with my "attacking" then I'm glad.

I can't think of a rider that has gotten horses beat in big races over here more than Jaime Spencer. Races he had no business losing. The amazing thing is his sample size is so limited, yet it seems like every single year you can count on him to totally mess up a ride in a big race. I don't know who his agent is, but he deserves a raise.

I'm no fan of Spencer's on both continents either, some of his rides can be best termed as peculiar. His ride on Powerscourt in the BC comes to mind as one of the worst judged rides in history, a 5/8ths move on turf was mind numbing, not to rehash his ride in the W mile, but had he found a seam he might have come out smelling like gold, it's a tough line riding on turf, if you save ground, race behind cover and still have the racing luck to make a hole or find a hole in the stretch, majority of the time, you win those races. It's the one time when you get shut off people remember, when Dominguez is at his best he reminds me of how they ride over in europe. As for earlier, I agree, glad we can discuss this amiably.