Invasor and Bernardini - Time Comparison

[slotdirt]

I still wonder if Ghostzapper would have dusted that field if there wasn't the "agreement" with the Roses in May connections on pace.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I find it interesting that even though Invasor and Bernardini haven't faced each other, all three of Invasor's American races this year were run at the same track and distance as a race Bernardini ran in. Here are the time comparisons:

Dist Track Invasor Bernardini
9f Saratoga 1:49.0 1:50.2
9.5f Pimlico 1:54.2 1:54.3
10f Belmont 2:01.1 2:01.0

Obviously the track at Saratoga was sloppy (although sealed) for the Jim Dandy so that probably accounts for the difference at 9 furlongs but otherwise they are dead even on raw time. The Beyer's all favored Bernardini but many of these races were single race variants so aren't very significant. I don't think there will be too much seperating Invasor and Bernardini other than their odds on BC Day. I'll be cashing my tickets on the Invincible Invasor.

Let's not forget that Bernardini will be carrying the same weight he carried in the JCGC and 4 lbs LESS than he carried in the Travers. Invasor will be carrying 6 and 8 lbs MORE than he carried in his last 2 races.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Let's not forget that Bernardini will be carrying the same weight he carried in the JCGC and 4 lbs LESS than he carried in the Travers. Invasor will be carrying 6 and 8 lbs MORE than he carried in his last 2 races.

--Dunbar

Last time I paid too much attention to weight I convinced myself that Magnum was going to beat Lava Man in the Goodwood. We saw how that turned out. I'm not big on factoring weight in but it is a good point you brought up.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I still wonder if Ghostzapper would have dusted that field if there wasn't the "agreement" with the Roses in May connections on pace.

they went 47 in that race, awful quick for 10 panels....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Last time I paid too much attention to weight I convinced myself that Magnum was going to beat Lava Man in the Goodwood. We saw how that turned out.

I made the same mistake.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I made the same mistake.

And so did I.

[brianwspencer]

magnum is a loser, so i didn't make the same mistake.

or at least he more or less has been since running what are now appearing to be two fluky races that are certainly the exception to his career.

Invasor will beat Bernardini. And I like Bernardini.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Scav

they went 47 in that race, awful quick for 10 panels....

but of course we all are well aware that a horse doesn't exert as much energy running fast and alone, than fast with someone eyeballing him. pace makes the race isn't said often because it's not fitting.

[ateamstupid]

No one's gonna look Bernardini in the eye.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Keep on quotes Beyers and see where that will get you.

Invasor is about a length slower then Bern if they run their tops. While they are both lightly races, Invasor has gotten more time off in between his starts and has room to improve....

I actually have Invasor a length faster on my figures, paired 125's vs. paired 124's (beyer equivalents of about 117 and 116.)

I'm pretty confident in them being solid figures, the runbacks have borne them out well- for example, Premium Tap got a 118 for his Whitney (beaten 7 lengths) and paired that in the Woodward. (Note that as trips are extremely important in determining the figure a horse earns i usually check the figures on runbacks where no trouble was encountered, such as PT's Woodward.)

That being said 1 length is nothing and racing luck can ruin either advantage. They'll both be A's on my tickets with very little backups. I also see this as similar to '04 with GZ but with TWO standouts... there's a ton of upset possiblities in the other races to make some huge pick-payoffs, like '04.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I actually have Invasor a length faster on my figures, paired 125's vs. paired 124's (beyer equivalents of about 117 and 116.)

I'm pretty confident in them being solid figures, the runbacks have borne them out well- for example, Premium Tap got a 118 for his Whitney (beaten 7 lengths) and paired that in the Woodward. (Note that as trips are extremely important in determining the figure a horse earns i usually check the figures on runbacks where no trouble was encountered, such as PT's Woodward.)

That being said 1 length is nothing and racing luck can ruin either advantage. They'll both be A's on my tickets with very little backups. I also see this as similar to '04 with GZ but with TWO standouts... there's a ton of upset possiblities in the other races to make some huge pick-payoffs, like '04.

I don't have them very far apart either, based solely on their past races. But I don't like the long layoff for Invasor. And Invasor comes out on the short end of a significant weight swing. I also consider Jara a negative compared to Castellano. Jara is very good, but he has not been in many of these extremely high pressure races. Plus, I have to give Bernardini a nudge in the figures for the stranglehold Castellano has had on him near the wire. When I put it all together, I have Bernardini about 4 times more likely to win the race than Invasor.

--Dunbar

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I also consider Jara a negative compared to Castellano. Jara is very good, but he has not been in many of these extremely high pressure races. Plus, I have to give Bernardini a nudge in the figures for the stranglehold Castellano has had on him near the wire. When I put it all together, I have Bernardini about 4 times more likely to win the race than Invasor.

--Dunbar

I think the Belmont showed the guy can hold it together. We've had more than a couple jocks, even long timers, get to the Belmont Stakes and royally choke even if they weren't going for the Crown. Sure his horse wasn't a TC contender but he knows darn well when it's too early to move at Belmont in a mile and a half race--kind of an indication of patience and a cool head really. He also knows about high pressure mile and a quarter races at Churchill. He'll have another dirt mount that day won't he? I would figure it'd help you get your head on straight if you were nervous but whatever. I think he's got a good head on his shoulders even if I have no idea what he's saying in post-race interviews.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I think the Belmont showed the guy can hold it together. We've had more than a couple jocks, even long timers, get to the Belmont Stakes and royally choke even if they weren't going for the Crown. Sure his horse wasn't a TC contender but he knows darn well when it's too early to move at Belmont in a mile and a half race--kind of an indication of patience and a cool head really. He also knows about high pressure mile and a quarter races at Churchill. He'll have another dirt mount that day won't he? I would figure it'd help you get your head on straight if you were nervous but whatever. I think he's got a good head on his shoulders even if I have no idea what he's saying in post-race interviews.

I like Jara and am a big Jazil fan but I think a monkey could have ridden Jazil, who runs between 24 and 25 seconds every two furlongs regardless of the length of the race, to victory in the Belmont.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like Jara and am a big Jazil fan but I think a monkey could have ridden Jazil, who runs between 24 and 25 seconds every two furlongs regardless of the length of the race, to victory in the Belmont.

right. you're ridiculous. if a monkey rode jazil, they would have ended up with the trip steppenwolfer had.

sorry, jara was brilliant that day when a vet absolutely ****ed steppenwolfers race.....ill take the smart jockey over the veteran idiot any day

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

right. you're ridiculous. if a monkey rode jazil, they would have ended up with the trip steppenwolfer had.

sorry, jara was brilliant that day when a vet absolutely ****ed steppenwolfers race.....ill take the smart jockey over the veteran idiot any day

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.

i think jaras ride on angara several months back indicated his ability to hold it together. i don't think he so much as twitched, and she got up for the win...i don't think jara would be a weakness at all.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.

until the belmont, jazil hadn't won a significant race either. and he won the belmont because jara gave him a ride with patience beyond his years.

steppenwolfer was in a great spot for a plodder in that race, it was setting up perfectly for him, and then he got wrangled back. i'm hardly the only one who thinks that the trip was atrocious and killed any chance for him.

jara has been brilliant in big races so far, he never moves too early with invasor, he has been perfectly patient on angara and jazil.

i'll take him any day, especially when people continue to see him as a liability -- just a better price for me.