Invasor and Bernardini - Time Comparison

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Revolution

Bernardini has 4 of the fastest 5 beyers run in a route this year and he wasn't asked for run in almost any race.

The only horses that can beat him are George Washington and David Junior, and that is only if they turn out to be dirt lovers. George Washington clearly has as much talent as Bernardini, but that doesn't mean it will transfer over to dirt.

Keep on quotes Beyers and see where that will get you.

Invasor is about a length slower then Bern if they run their tops. While they are both lightly races, Invasor has gotten more time off in between his starts and has room to improve....

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Keep on quotes Beyers and see where that will get you.

Invasor is about a length slower then Bern if they run their tops. While they are both lightly races, Invasor has gotten more time off in between his starts and has room to improve....

i agree with the assessment of the length difference -- but i also know that the only time that bernardini has been looked in the eye was the only race he ever lost. invasor has shown that he's tough and hangs in there.

what's bernardini going to do when he hooks lava man at the 3/8 pole?

that's not the kind of question i'm willing to take even money to find the answer to.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

i agree with the assessment of the length difference -- but i also know that the only time that bernardini has been looked in the eye was the only race he ever lost. invasor has shown that he's tough and hangs in there.

what's bernardini going to do when he hooks lava man at the 3/8 pole?

that's not the kind of question i'm willing to take even money to find the answer to.

whoa.....That was his MSW, all horses have excuses 1st out....can't hold that against him at all...he has hooked horses before, he hooked SNS in the Preakness, matter of fact just blew by him.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

whoa.....That was his MSW, all horses have excuses 1st out....can't hold that against him at all...he has hooked horses before, he hooked SNS in the Preakness, matter of fact just blew by him.

"hooking" Sweetnorthernsaint in the preakness does not count one bit. watch the replay and watch SNS weaving around exhausted from the campaign like a drunken sorority girl in a borrowed ferrari.

he hasn't had to deal with a horse who doesn't just fold and give up when they come on even terms. and we're kidding ourselves if we think that everyone in the classic is just going to defer to him like all the other fields have when he approaches.

i'm just having a hard time believing that even money is the kind of payoff you want for taking that risk against some of the best horses in the world.

don't get me wrong -- i completely believe that there is a great chance that he wins, or even wins for fun here like ghostzapper, but it's a risky proposition from this side.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

"hooking" Sweetnorthernsaint in the preakness does not count one bit. watch the replay and watch SNS weaving around exhausted from the campaign like a drunken sorority girl in a borrowed ferrari.

he hasn't had to deal with a horse who doesn't just fold and give up when they come on even terms. and we're kidding ourselves if we think that everyone in the classic is just going to defer to him like all the other fields have when he approaches.

i'm just having a hard time believing that even money is the kind of payoff you want for taking that risk against some of the best horses in the world.

don't get me wrong -- i completely believe that there is a great chance that he wins, or even wins for fun here like ghostzapper, but it's a risky proposition from this side.

As far as a win wager, I couldn't agree more, but as the anchor on a pick three/four/six, he is as solid of an anchor as they come

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as a win wager, I couldn't agree more, but as the anchor on a pick three/four/six, he is as solid of an anchor as they come

he'll be on my ticket, but he won't be anchoring anything -- i'll be going about 4-6 deep in the classic, i'm going to have a hard time ruling horses out with invasor, lava man, david junior, and flower alley in it.

the way i'm looking at it is that if he wins, he wins for fun and he's as good as he's looked beating up on nobody all summer.

but if he doesn't win -- this race becomes as crapshoot. you're left with about 7-9 other horses for whom you could make a case for winning if he doesn't.

THAT is scary.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Scav

whoa.....That was his MSW, all horses have excuses 1st out....can't hold that against him at all...he has hooked horses before, he hooked SNS in the Preakness, matter of fact just blew by him.

SNS only just recently came back. He wasn't himself for the Preakness and got flattened the rest of the way in that race. 5 months later he comes back for the win but wow that took forever to recover. I'm sure they were optimistic because they said they were considering him for various races along the way but he was still worn out for awhile and I don't think Bernardini can take all the credit.

Hopefully somebody will be better able to hook him in the BCC because most of them aren't rubber legged from the TC trail and prep races. It's more entertaining if he has to work for it...he's done so much coasting already. I want a good race and some fantastic horses battling---am I greedy if I want several good horses in the same stretch drive? Happily so I guess.

[Scav]

I was telling someone today that this has a Ghostzapper feeling to it. that field had a 'strong' look to it and he just dusted them....

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I was telling someone today that this has a Ghostzapper feeling to it. that field had a 'strong' look to it and he just dusted them....

and i very well understand that he might be just that good.

but when my money is on the line, i'm sure as hell going to cover myself in case he isn't.

i sort of want him to be that good, because it'd be a great story -- but it just seems that he's had it too easy this summer.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

and i very well understand that he might be just that good.

but when my money is on the line, i'm sure as hell going to cover myself in case he isn't.

i sort of want him to be that good, because it'd be a great story -- but it just seems that he's had it too easy this summer.

Agree...for me though, he is a singleton, maybe a saver with Invasor but Bern is getting singled in the pick six if I get a ticket into the $180 range and auto single in the pick four....OB/ALL/ALL/Bern is what I am considering

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Keep on quotes Beyers and see where that will get you.

Invasor is about a length slower then Bern if they run their tops. While they are both lightly races, Invasor has gotten more time off in between his starts and has room to improve....

I actually have Invasor a length faster on my figures, paired 125's vs. paired 124's (beyer equivalents of about 117 and 116.)

I'm pretty confident in them being solid figures, the runbacks have borne them out well- for example, Premium Tap got a 118 for his Whitney (beaten 7 lengths) and paired that in the Woodward. (Note that as trips are extremely important in determining the figure a horse earns i usually check the figures on runbacks where no trouble was encountered, such as PT's Woodward.)

That being said 1 length is nothing and racing luck can ruin either advantage. They'll both be A's on my tickets with very little backups. I also see this as similar to '04 with GZ but with TWO standouts... there's a ton of upset possiblities in the other races to make some huge pick-payoffs, like '04.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I actually have Invasor a length faster on my figures, paired 125's vs. paired 124's (beyer equivalents of about 117 and 116.)

I'm pretty confident in them being solid figures, the runbacks have borne them out well- for example, Premium Tap got a 118 for his Whitney (beaten 7 lengths) and paired that in the Woodward. (Note that as trips are extremely important in determining the figure a horse earns i usually check the figures on runbacks where no trouble was encountered, such as PT's Woodward.)

That being said 1 length is nothing and racing luck can ruin either advantage. They'll both be A's on my tickets with very little backups. I also see this as similar to '04 with GZ but with TWO standouts... there's a ton of upset possiblities in the other races to make some huge pick-payoffs, like '04.

I don't have them very far apart either, based solely on their past races. But I don't like the long layoff for Invasor. And Invasor comes out on the short end of a significant weight swing. I also consider Jara a negative compared to Castellano. Jara is very good, but he has not been in many of these extremely high pressure races. Plus, I have to give Bernardini a nudge in the figures for the stranglehold Castellano has had on him near the wire. When I put it all together, I have Bernardini about 4 times more likely to win the race than Invasor.

--Dunbar

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I also consider Jara a negative compared to Castellano. Jara is very good, but he has not been in many of these extremely high pressure races. Plus, I have to give Bernardini a nudge in the figures for the stranglehold Castellano has had on him near the wire. When I put it all together, I have Bernardini about 4 times more likely to win the race than Invasor.

--Dunbar

I think the Belmont showed the guy can hold it together. We've had more than a couple jocks, even long timers, get to the Belmont Stakes and royally choke even if they weren't going for the Crown. Sure his horse wasn't a TC contender but he knows darn well when it's too early to move at Belmont in a mile and a half race--kind of an indication of patience and a cool head really. He also knows about high pressure mile and a quarter races at Churchill. He'll have another dirt mount that day won't he? I would figure it'd help you get your head on straight if you were nervous but whatever. I think he's got a good head on his shoulders even if I have no idea what he's saying in post-race interviews.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I think the Belmont showed the guy can hold it together. We've had more than a couple jocks, even long timers, get to the Belmont Stakes and royally choke even if they weren't going for the Crown. Sure his horse wasn't a TC contender but he knows darn well when it's too early to move at Belmont in a mile and a half race--kind of an indication of patience and a cool head really. He also knows about high pressure mile and a quarter races at Churchill. He'll have another dirt mount that day won't he? I would figure it'd help you get your head on straight if you were nervous but whatever. I think he's got a good head on his shoulders even if I have no idea what he's saying in post-race interviews.

I like Jara and am a big Jazil fan but I think a monkey could have ridden Jazil, who runs between 24 and 25 seconds every two furlongs regardless of the length of the race, to victory in the Belmont.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like Jara and am a big Jazil fan but I think a monkey could have ridden Jazil, who runs between 24 and 25 seconds every two furlongs regardless of the length of the race, to victory in the Belmont.

right. you're ridiculous. if a monkey rode jazil, they would have ended up with the trip steppenwolfer had.

sorry, jara was brilliant that day when a vet absolutely ****ed steppenwolfers race.....ill take the smart jockey over the veteran idiot any day

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

right. you're ridiculous. if a monkey rode jazil, they would have ended up with the trip steppenwolfer had.

sorry, jara was brilliant that day when a vet absolutely ****ed steppenwolfers race.....ill take the smart jockey over the veteran idiot any day

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.