8/13: Saratoga (Day 20; Sword Dancer)

[Kasept]

Get the feeling I hit a bit of what baseball types call a 'dead arm' Wednesday-Friday, enduring some mediocre-at-best handicapping and ho-hum wagering. The P6 carryover try for Friday was inept as I ended up putting in a $240 ticket that emphasized in the wrong places and could only manage 3 winners. That said, I'm not sure I would have gotten to nightcap victor Ginger J without using a half dozen runners at least.

The week has been odd in that I have been able to identify plenty of winners daily, but haven't seen enough prices tied together to boost the bankroll. As a result, after negligible wins/losses Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, I trimmed more than $500 off the wad Friday. Am up about $1,500 for the stand as we hit the halfway point Saturday, and expect to yet find the big P4's that usually sustain the Spa season for me. Sword Dancer card and Arlington Million slate offer plenty of opportunities today, and I hope everyone has been doing OK and are ready for yet another great weekend of racing and action!

Steve Crist, Jay Privman and Keeneland Library's G. D. Hieronymus join Seth Merrow and I this morning on "Loose on the Lead", and you can still catch Friday's ATR Weekend Preview with Marcus Hersch, Nick Tammaro, Ed DeRosa, Rick Hammerle and Joe McMahon on SiriusXM or at www.stevebyk.com.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

To utilize one of Andy Serling's maxims, "the time to have Pico Dinero was last time", and we all did on opening day at 12-1. Turf course now playing honestly, and you need to find all the best of the pace options. Top pair (BEL, 7/14) and bottom pair (DEL, 7/19) below exit respective races, and I'll try to hook them all up in this fun opener..

Most Likely: #1 Monastir 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Milllenium Jet 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Dugan 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Grande Gayego 20-1 10th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Little Dale SCR'D was a heart-breaking disappointment 8 days ago when needed for a juicy P4 hit. The Prize Fighter has been shopping for a spot since the meet started, and as it happens, late owner Carl Lizza is being feted this afternoon..

Most Likely: #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #5 Tug of War 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Smokem's Charm 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Think I'm Hooked 8-1 4th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Gallant Fields 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Quality Council 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1e Darley entry 2-1 2nd/5th


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3)

Tough group upon which to get a handle..

Best Value: #6 Scotchirish 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Dallaglio 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ry Bread 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Miami Ghost 3-1 8th


5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting maiden affair with a pedigreed player from Pletcher in Unbridled Ocean, a colt out of the outstanding Ocean Drive who Todd happened to train for M/M Baskin..

Most Likely: #6 Imagining 3-1: Solid debut; Extra 200 yards should help.. 2nd
Best Value: #8 Simbamangu 8-1: 'Now horse' 3 weeks ago, a better tab today.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Unbridled Ocean 4-1: $875k new; Dam a Ballston Spa heroine.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Corporate Jungle 9-2: Brown firing on all cylinders after blah start.. WON ($7.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-8
3: 2-3
4: 1-4-6-7-8-9
5: 3-4-6-8

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $75

$1 Pick 4 (1/3-2/5-1-4) Paid: $86.85


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Scant tangibles available in this baby heat. Note Pletcher (#4 How Do I Win) just 1 for last 14 adding hood to 2yo's in MSW's (2010-11)..

Best Value: #7 Burned Bridges 8-1: KMc debuts half to Jump Start.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Clip the Coupons 4-1: Half to MSP Calder bull Peace at Dawn.. WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Love to Run 8-1: $190k Pulpit son working well.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 How Do I Win 3-1: See above.. 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Super tricky group given the assignment and abundance of firsters. Happy this isn't in the late P4..

Best Value: #10 Dullahan 6-1: Turf stretch may work for Mine That Bird brother.. 2nd
Next Best: #8 Patrice Merion 3-1: Pletcher sends Zayat miss by EngChan out v. boys.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Atigun 15-1: McPeek hits boards turf routing with first time starters.. 9th
Super Add: #1 Tiz Sardonic Joe 10-1: Half to Joes Blazing Aaron, so lawn route should suit.. WON ($20.00)


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive with a number of horses that really have a nose for the wire..

Best Value: #9 Bergerac 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Unaccountable 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Xodo 8-1 5th


9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Difficult P4 sequence gets more challenging with this turf dash scrambler..

Most Likely: #3 Power Blast 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Decision Point 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Jupiter Trio 5-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Out of Your Mind 30-1 9th


10th: 37th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Considering the Arlington Million is being run an hour later, this edition came up very nice..

Most Likely: #8 Winchester 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #1 Drosselmeyer 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Teaks North 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Boisterous 4-1 5th


11th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Rush to Riches 5-1 11th
Best Value: #4 El Cuandro 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Calgary Enforcer 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Recipe 4-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6-9
9: 3-6-10
10: 1-5-7-8
11: 4-7-12

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[intense]

Hey Steve,

Do you happen to have any insight for the big 3 races at Arlington?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by intense

Hey Steve,

Do you happen to have any insight for the big 3 races at Arlington?

I honestly don't have any that I would want anyone to lean on, but I will have a chance to look more closely now.. If I have anything that resembles advice worth sharing, I will. Good luck today!

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Get the feeling I hit a bit of what baseball types call a 'dead arm' Wednesday-Friday, enduring some mediocre-at-best handicapping and ho-hum wagering. The P6 carryover try for Friday was inept as I ended up putting in a $240 ticket that emphasized in the wrong places and could only manage 3 winners. That said, I'm not sure I would have gotten to nightcap victor Ginger J without using a half dozen runners at least.

Got the same feeling Sreve. After a great start to the meet with several P4's been too sloppy using the house's money chasing crazy payoffs. Best plan is to take a day off and regroup and not force bets when they are not there.

[bahughes]

solid job today steve.....did a $2 p3 races 6,7,8 for $36 had the 1-6-9 in race 8 all payouts over $800 lost by a nose thought it was going to be my day...good luck tomorrow

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by bahughes

solid job today steve.....did a $2 p3 races 6,7,8 for $36 had the 1-6-9 in race 8 all payouts over $800 lost by a nose thought it was going to be my day...good luck tomorrow

Thanks a lot BA. Was a challenging set of races and I know what you mean about the 8th. You had to keep at it Saturday as prices were there if you could net one or two of them. I had a pretty good day. The early P4 covered the investment, and I fortuitously caught two solid triples to carry the day. Hoping we don't get washed out today, but it doesn't look good... Second half of the meet will offer plenty of opportunities and thrills.