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#1
07-30-2011, 04:40 AM
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7/30: Saratoga (Day 8; Diana, Jim Dandy, $40k C/O)
Late day outburst put damper on twilight racing at the Spa Friday, but still a fun afternoon for the enthusiastic College Day crowd. Got a couple licks in early on the slate with first two P3's falling at $104 and $190, which proved enough to exit the day level. Mott second time out/first time turf Reach a Decision proved capable in that MDN 2nd we discussed, and the $26+ win tote was certainly surprising. Colossal Gift ran a predictable second from the outpost, which produced an OK $48 exacta. Not a great day but hardly a bad one. Hope you did well! Superb weekend upon us... Graham Motion and Tom Durkin join Seth Merrow and I on Capital OTB TV-12's "Loose on the Lead" Saturday morning 9-10a.
SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Zapparition 2-1: Owns class edge; Saves ground.. 6th Best Value: #4 Sing My Song: A personal fave; Career best form.. 7th Next Best: #6 La Reine Lionne 6-1: May move up on lawn with cut.. 2nd Super Add: #7 Hasay 6-1: Motion has had 6 weeks to adjust import.. 4th 2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Stealcase 7-2: Turning into 'universal good thing'.. 4th Next Best: #3 Officer Prado 4-1: Dawdled in bow early, picked it up late.. 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Doctorious 6-1 7th Super Add: #1 Giant Surprise 3-1 WON ($7.80) 3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Excellent ALW route with several 3yo's that could yet find themselves in the Travers or PA Derby.. Most Likely: #1 Windswept 5-1: If more than a closing sprinter.. 2nd Best Value: #3 Gallant Dreams 6-1: Two-turning may be his best thing.. 5th Next Best: #8 Malibu Glow 2-1: Obviously with big chance, but 2-1? WON ($4.80) Exotics Use: #2 Jack London 3-1: Will call on Waquoit mare's stamina.. 3rd 4th:NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Best Value: #3 With a Cape 5-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Sebago Bay 5-2 WON ($5.50) Exotics Use: #5 Ambassador Bridge 6-1 4th Super Add: #9 Stonemill 12-1 10th 5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) #11 (AE) Gimme Credit (5-1) will be a use should he draw in.. Most Likely: #9 Alyarf 5-1 9th Best Value: #8 Veiled Prospect 8-1 5th Next Best: #7 Monument Hill 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Gimme Credit 5-1 4th <$50 P4 Play: 2: 3 3: 1-2-3-8 4: 3-8 5: 5-6-7-8-9-11 1x4x2x6 = $48 ($24 for .50) 6th:MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Tough way to start this tremendously challenging P6 carryover ($40k) sequence.. Most Likely: #6 Captain Webb 3-1 WON ($5.10) Next Best: #3 Saturday Classic 6-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Honor Call 15-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Colbert 5-1 9th 7th: OC/N3X, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Very quirky third level ALW with some consistent hard-hitters.. Most Likely: #8 Dark Thunder 5-2: Pletcher aquiree appears much better as 4yo.. WON ($6.20) Best Value: #6 Spirit of Cochise 8-1: Levine tabs Ramon for vet with pace options.. 6th Exotics Use: #2 Tahitian Warrior 2-1: Gets hood and got over surface well last year.. 5th Super Add: #9 China 6-1: May be overlooked; Zipped over strip preparing for this.. 4th 8th: Hattie Moseley, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Starformer 4-1: Mott-Juddmonte bay Group 3 try a fit here.. 3rd Best Value: #5 Sassy's Dream 10-1: Owns hidden form; Lone entrant with 3 wins.. 9th Next Best: #6 Ruthenia 7-2: Hasn't quite gone on as 3yo as envisoned.. 2nd Super Add: #1 Japanese Garden 20-1: Dam was OK on turf; Worth a stab.. 6th 9th: 73rd Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Delightful assembly of turf fillies and mares. Important to know where Canani goes with cross-entered, pace-setting type Romacaca (SCR'D).. Most Likely: #1 Unbridled Humor 4-1: Untrainable miss spots Graded Stakes experience; Upside unkown.. 7th Best Value: #5 Bay to Bay 6-1: Will be underbet; Lynch, Sligo Bay 4yo always acquit themselves.. 3rd Next Best: #7 Aviate 5-1: Came up empty in Just a Game, but this event in Juddmonte wheelhouse.. 5th Exotics Use: #6 Aruna 3-1: "Other" Motion miss 3/2-1-0 in GS since November but needs set up.. 2nd 10th: 48th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Fun edition of this traditional Travers prep sees Jimmy Baker add significant pace pressure on Dominus with Will's Wildcat. While Asmussen trainee (Dominus) is absolutely the horse to beat, he could be vulnerable late if hounded by Will's Wildcat who has benefit of outside lane. Will also be interesting to see if Leparoux gets cooperation from Dominus to turn tables on pace foe by letting him go early. Since this race looks chalky, note that Reade Baker brings Albert the Great son Moonshine Mullin in from Woodbine for his first start on conventional dirt. Though his sire was 7th in his own Jim Dandy try, he was beaten 3 weeks later by an excruciating head by Unshaded and earned $3,000,000 racing on main tracks. Why can't Moonshine Mullin leap forward 'first dirt' and boost the exotics? Most Likely: #2 Dominus 3-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Moonshine Mullin 15-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Alternation 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #3 Brilliant Speed 7-2 5th 10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super) A hard to seperate turf sprint group to end the day.. Most Likely: #15 Hero Figure 3-1 3rd Best Value: #1a My Golden Opinion 6-1 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #4 In Just We Trust 4-1 5th Super Add: #13 Scorch the Torch 8-1 4th <$200 P5 P6 Play: 6: 3-5-6-8 7: 2-6-8-9 8: 8 9: 1-5-7 10: 2 11: 1-15 4x4x1x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1-5-6-8-10 9: 1-4-5-6-7 10: 2 11: 1-4-15 5x5x1x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-31-2011 at 04:32 AM. 
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#2
07-30-2011, 05:30 AM
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I think so to  The one in the 6th is pretty darn good to as long as it stays on the turfLast edited by Kasept : 07-30-2011 at 06:05 AM.
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#4
07-30-2011, 06:06 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
07-30-2011, 06:07 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
07-30-2011, 10:43 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
07-31-2011, 05:09 AM
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Don't know if you watched 'Loose on the Lead' Saturday morning -- does it reach Utica? -- but when Seth asked me for any handicapping ideas for the day, Moonshine Mullin as exotic key was the only thing I talked about. Him jumping up first dirt felt like the only angle in the race to try as a way to make money with the top choices all certain to go off below $10. Hope you had a good day!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#11
07-31-2011, 06:59 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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