7/16 (DEL): Delaware H. (G2), Carpenter Jr. Mem. S., Sussex S.

[Indian Charlie]

This is the kind of talk I have referred to a few times in the last year, about the superlatives for Blind Luck being a bit far fetched.

I know the older males (or younger males!) aren't much this year and it would not be the most surprising thing ever if BL or HDG could beat them, but to say with certainty those are the two best dirt horses in the country is a big stretch.

I would be pretty surprised if either of them could beat TC or SC, on dirt, going 9.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

This is the kind of talk I have referred to a few times in the last year, about the superlatives for Blind Luck being a bit far fetched.

I know the older males (or younger males!) aren't much this year and it would not be the most surprising thing ever if BL or HDG could beat them, but to say with certainty those are the two best dirt horses in the country is a big stretch.

I would be pretty surprised if either of them could beat TC or SC, on dirt, going 9.

Sexist!

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.drf.com/news/delaware-par...aware-handicap

Larry Jones, the trainer of Havre de Grace, had said before the race that the felt the two-pound spread was worth about 1 1/4 lengths going 1 1/4 miles. Afterwards, Jones was clearly upset the weights were not equal.

"Tell me two pounds does not make a difference," Jones said. "She won six Grade 1's versus our one and we are the highweight. That makes a lot of sense. I probably should not have run."


Uh Larry... the two pounds doesnt make a difference...

[Dahoss]

I'd be interested in hearing Jones explain the math behind 2 pounds equaling 1 1/4 lengths. The should not have run stuff is embarrassing.

Your filly ran a very solid race. Tip your giant hat and shut up now.

[Calzone Lord]

On both the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin scales ... 2 pounds at 10 furlongs equals 4/5ths or 80% of one length.

From the study Beyer did on weight - published in Beyer on Speed - I believe a pound is equal to 4/10ths of one Beyer Point. So, two pounds at 10fs, would equal 80% of one Beyer point - or about a margin of a Neck.

So, basically, if you believe Thoro-Graph and Ragozin - the 2lbs was worth 8/10ths of a length.

If you believe Beyer, it was worth about a neck.


I have seen differences of opinion on the subject in the Euro material as well - but weight is viewed with more importance there - and I believe most of the material I've seen has the spread even a little wider than Thoro-Graph and Ragozin have it.

[King Glorious]

Whittingham would have said it mattered. So would Frankel. So would Mack Miller. That's good enough for me.

[Dahoss]

What would Lebron James or Michael Vick have said?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Whittingham would have said it mattered. So would Frankel. So would Mack Miller. That's good enough for me.

Frankel was a Sheets user - and a Jew... so yeah, obviously.

Whittingham and Miller probably wouldn't have bemoaned two fricken pounds. They raced at a time when racing Sec's weren't pussies.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On both the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin scales ... 2 pounds at 10 furlongs equals 4/5ths or 80% of one length.

From the study Beyer did on weight - published in Beyer on Speed - I believe a pound is equal to 4/10ths of one Beyer Point. So, two pounds at 10fs, would equal 80% of one Beyer point - or about a margin of a Neck.

So, basically, if you believe Thoro-Graph and Ragozin - the 2lbs was worth 8/10ths of a length.

If you believe Beyer, it was worth about a neck.


I have seen differences of opinion on the subject in the Euro material as well - but weight is viewed with more importance there - and I believe most of the material I've seen has the spread even a little wider than Thoro-Graph and Ragozin have it.

If he is concerned about sheet theory he should have told his rider to stay on the rail during the first turn where he could have saved ground instead of going 3 wide.

Trainers complain about the weights a lot more for the owners benefit than because they really believe a pound makes a difference. And because the top guys who usually do the complaining are used to everyone bending over backwards to give them something. It is a shock to the system when they don't get their way. Though Jones moaning sounds like he believes it.

[Calzone Lord]

I loved the sh!t fit Frankel and Bailey threw after Wild Spirit (at 1/9 odds) was edged in the Personal Ensign by Passing Shot.

Remember that one?

Wild Spirit romped by 6 in the Del Cap in her previous race over a solid field (Take Charge Lady, Summer Colony, and a couple decent others IIRC)

They assign her with 122lbs for the Personal Ensign. Frankel goes off about it. She gets beat a nose by the Jerkens rat. Bailey blasts Mike Lakow in the interview and gets fined for it if I recall.

Probably - only time in history a jockey was ever fined for trashing a racing sec in a tv interview.


It's funny that Jones wants to bitch about giving Blind Luck 2lbs - someone should show him Discovery and the form's of the horses he had to give insanely large weight spreads to in the mid 30's.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Trainers complain about the weights a lot.

Regardless - 2lbs still means a little something - especially at 10fs.

In a race that came down to basically a head-bob - all things being the same otherwise - of course it was a deciding factor in the outcome.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

This is the kind of talk I have referred to a few times in the last year, about the superlatives for Blind Luck being a bit far fetched.

I know the older males (or younger males!) aren't much this year and it would not be the most surprising thing ever if BL or HDG could beat them, but to say with certainty those are the two best dirt horses in the country is a big stretch.

I would be pretty surprised if either of them could beat TC or SC, on dirt, going 9.

How 'bout 10? I thought BL might be best at ten last year after Saratoga.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

How 'bout 10? I thought BL might be best at ten last year after Saratoga.

I don't have a lot of confidence in either of the Candys being highly effective going 10, but who knows what magic Pletcher might work on SC?