Weekend Stakes Beyers: Flat Out 113

[Calzone Lord]

Obviously the performance of the year by anybody in a route race so far - was Flat Out yesterday.

There's nothing in his form you can point to and say 'that might be why he improved so sharply' other than that it was his first try in a one-turn race beyond 6.5 furlongs...and he's really just been a horse who's wanted a one-turn mile and up all along ... but damn, does that feel like a stretch.

I'm sure the Sheets boards are alive with talk of how his gut-wrenching effort is going to cause him to bounce to the moon.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Obviously the performance of the year by anybody in a route race so far - was Flat Out yesterday.

There's nothing in his form you can point to and say 'that might be why he improved so sharply' other than that it was his first try in a one-turn race beyond 6.5 furlongs...and he's really just been a horse who's wanted a one-turn mile and up all along ... but damn, does that feel like a stretch.

I'm sure the Sheets boards are alive with talk of how his gut-wrenching effort is going to cause him to bounce to the moon.

I don't think it was a matter of finally finding the right conditions (one turn route). This was the first time he ever strung 3 races together without imploding, and therefore finally ran his top effort (not that you could see it coming). Pure speculation, but he had a conspicuous one mile work before the Lone Star race, suggesting he might be short for that race. Add in the mere 2 week break between the Stephen Foster and the Suburban, and I think you can make a hindsight case that he was being raced into condition.

It's a stretch, too, but, I think it's more believable that he was simply "coming to hand".

What numbers did he get for that Fair Grounds allowance comeback? That seemed like a big effort off such a long layoff.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I don't think it was a matter of finally finding the right conditions (one turn route). This was the first time he ever strung 3 races together without imploding, and therefore finally ran his top effort (not that you could see it coming). Pure speculation, but he had a conspicuous one mile work before the Lone Star race, suggesting he might be short for that race. Add in the mere 2 week break between the Stephen Foster and the Suburban, and I think you can make a hindsight case that he was being raced into condition.

It's a stretch, too, but, I think it's more believable that he was simply "coming to hand".

What numbers did he get for that Fair Grounds allowance comeback? That seemed like a big effort off such a long layoff.

I think he got a 96 in the FG race - though I will have to go back and check. It was a very good race - he closed into a slow pace on a track that isn't typically friendly to wide closers.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think he got a 96 in the FG race - though I will have to go back and check. It was a very good race - he closed into a slow pace on a track that isn't typically friendly to wide closers.

And he went right back to the bench after that. I have to think they had to pussyfoot with his training coming back this second time so that he could hold together. I also wonder if they were more or less "forced" to run in stakes races instead of an allowance race with 3 wins already under his belt.

One bad sign going forward off the Suburban is that his last work for the race came on turf. It could be for any number of reasons and was only 4 days before yesterday's race, but with his history it seems a little ominous.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

One bad sign going forward off the Suburban is that his last work for the race came on turf. It could be for any number of reasons and was only 4 days before yesterday's race, but with his history it seems a little ominous.

Regarding the turf work - they're saying this horse has a history of bad feet ... I guess if he's able to duplicate that performance in the future - it will be decided by how sound his feet are.

He ran like a horse who just had strong vinegar spit into his nose over and over for the first time ever...after getting his teeth cleaned, his shoes changed, and his legs felt with Juan Carlos's facial cheek.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Regarding the turf work - they're saying this horse has a history of bad feet ... I guess if he's able to duplicate that performance in the future - it will be decided by how sound his feet are.

Went back and checked, it looks like Flat Out had been on the fence for tomorrow's Firecracker on turf at Churchill according to the Blood-Horse.

Going back to the Stephen Foster, he saved ground throughout and then came with a rally along the rail only to get outfinished by a few coming from the center of the track. Was the track playing fair that day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Word is the rail was off....but I don't follow it closely enough to trust the opinions of others.