6/25: Belmont Park (5th-10th); Prairie Meadows (7th-10th)

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As discussed this week, I've been trying a longshot play structure utilizing overlays as keys in the place and show position, and the approach helped result in a quality saver on the winner. I placed Ducky Drake both second and third in tris with the two favorites, and at more than double his morning line, bet him to win as well. The $29.00 tote was a nice reward considering the frustration of leaving Chris Hartman's 20x winner off the P4 play. The 'longshot reverse key' concept was offered up on ATR as an approach on Breeders' Cup cards by BC tote honcho Ken Kirchner, who is a serious hanicapper/horseplayer. I will have him back on the show to elaborate further, but searching for a new wrinkle in my own play, I've had a handful of quality hits with this concept over the last 6-8 weeks.

Steve--I respect both you and Ken and would love to understand this betting approach better. It seems to me that in the example above, keying on your live longshot only underneath cost you a much bigger score. I do get that often these value types will not win. But, if you like a horse at a big price, why not go for it by using him on top in exotics as well?

Paul

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Steve--I respect both you and Ken and would love to understand this betting approach better. It seems to me that in the example above, keying on your live longshot only underneath cost you a much bigger score. I do get that often these value types will not win. But, if you like a horse at a big price, why not go for it by using him on top in exotics as well?

Paul

Because I didn't think he was likely to win. To me he was worth a saver win bet at the price should he win, but it was still far more likely to me that he run 2nd or 3rd with the favorites.

And as it happens, I wouldn't have had the place horse in any case had I tried to key him on top.