Blind Luck Is Awesome; To be offered at KEE Nov. Sale

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Isn't it important when ridiculing Morning LIne for losing to Giant Oak to consider the dynamics of the race in question?

But that's his running style and it's what makes him vulnerable at two turns, no?

I just don't think the gap between the top males and top females is nearly as big as some do.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But that's his running style and it's what makes him vulnerable at two turns, no?

I just don't think the chasm between the top males and top females is nearly as big as some do.

After having your manhood questioned like that in this thread you come out like the Jets in the AFC championship against Pitt....used up early....you were right in your initial assessment. Simply stick to it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

After having your manhood questioned like that in this thread you come out like the Jets in the AFC championship against Pitt....used up early....you were right in your initial assessment. Simply stick to it.

I just don't care enough anymore to get into multi-page arguments.

I'll echo what miraja said and add that I've seen too many miserable favorites in important handicap races this year to discount the top three fillies/mares.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I just don't care enough anymore to get into multi-page arguments.

I'll echo what miraja said and add that I've seen too many miserable favorites in important handicap races this year to discount the top three fillies/mares.

You remind me of a younger version of Gandhi right now. Very cool.

[Travis Stone]

The one thing about Blind Luck that I think is interesting is that in none of her recent races has she faced a really fast or strong pace. The only time in her most recent starts where she saw a half faster than 47-flat was at SA on the speedway.

I think she would have at least threatened 4th or 5th in the last year's BC Classic given how that race shook-out.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You remind me of a younger version of Gandhi right now. Very cool.

Did you hang out with the older version of Gandhi much?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by GPK

Did you hang out with the older version of Gandhi much?

No but as someone who's best friend is Indian, I always wonder how Indians felt that the most important person from your country was portrayed in a movie by Ben Kingsley. Just wrong.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The one thing about Blind Luck that I think is interesting is that in none of her recent races has she faced a really fast or strong pace. The only time in her most recent starts where she saw a half faster than 47-flat was at SA on the speedway.

I think she would have at least threatened 4th or 5th in the last year's BC Classic given how that race shook-out.

I was probably in the minority at the time - just because she had bad recent form on paper over the track (with legit excuses) - but after watching the SA Handicap I was confident she would have won that race if entered.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I always wonder how Indians felt that the most important person from your country was portrayed in a movie by Ben Kingsley.

Probably similarly to how clever people feel about you pretending to be one on the internet.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Probably similarly to how clever people feel about you pretending to be one on the internet.

You are the cleverest of them all.

[King Glorious]

It's still amazing to me how some people stay stuck on sex and discount the actual ability of the horses. Anyone with two eyes can see that there's no such thing as a standout in the older male division and that the top females have as good a shot as any males do. Pool freaking Play just won the Foster yet I'm supposed to believe that Havre de Grace and Blind Luck have no shot at all? Yeah, ok. So glad I'm clueless about this sport.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Pool freaking Play just won the Foster yet I'm supposed to believe that Havre de Grace and Blind Luck have no shot at all? Yeah, ok.

It's a pointless debate because there is zero chance either will run in the Whitney.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Blind Luck is like a throw-back to the top class fillies and mares of seven or eight years ago.

And speaking of pretty cool throwbacks - I noticed a 2yo at HP today named Danger Ranger. There was a horse who dominated Calder in my younger days by that same name.

I remember that horse. Ralph Zadie?

[Calzone Lord]

I believe so. I seem to remember a few of his good battles with Elite Jeblar.

Just looked on the pedigree query - Elite Jeblar was foaled in 1990 and started 110 times. Danger Ranger was foaled in 1991 and started 87 times. Good, tough, mid 90's Calder horses for sure.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's still amazing to me how some people stay stuck on sex and discount the actual ability of the horses. Anyone with two eyes can see that there's no such thing as a standout in the older male division and that the top females have as good a shot as any males do. Pool freaking Play just won the Foster yet I'm supposed to believe that Havre de Grace and Blind Luck have no shot at all? Yeah, ok. So glad I'm clueless about this sport.

Nobody was using the (lack of) strength in the Foster to argue against Blind Luck or Havre de Grace winning the Whitney. In fact, every horse that was discussed as being one who could give them trouble was NOT in the Foster.

Again, I love Blind Luck, it's hard not to. But running past She's Cheeky, a distance challenged Switch and Miss Match is not in the same zip code as facing horses like Morning Line, Friend or Foe, Rail Trip, Sidney's Candy, and Tizway.

I wish Larry Jones had as much confidence in Havre de Grace as everyone on here. Then maybe he would have run her in the Phipps.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

But running past She's Cheeky, a distance challenged Switch and Miss Match is not in the same zip code as facing horses like Morning Line, Friend or Foe, Rail Trip, Sidney's Candy, and Tizway.

That was the logic I used in last year's BCC and why I didn't include Zenyatta in any of my tickets. She demonstrated last year that (given a very favorable pace scenario) she could compete quite well against the best dirt males....on dirt.

What is so different this year?

Do you think Zenyatta was simply lightyears better last year than the top two fillies this year? I don't.
Or do you think the horses on your list are simply lightyears better than Blame, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky, etc from last year?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I wish Larry Jones had as much confidence in Havre de Grace as everyone on here. Then maybe he would have run her in the Phipps.

Agreed.
And - as others have pointed out - our discussion about how the fillies would do against the males is pretty pointless since it seems extremely unlikely that such a thing will happen.

[Thunder Gulch]

Keep her where she is in the F&M division because she is taking chances by touring the country and doing well with it. Just a fun horse to watch run her race every time out.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by miraja2

That was the logic I used in last year's BCC and why I didn't include Zenyatta in any of my tickets. She demonstrated last year that (given a very favorable pace scenario) she could compete quite well against the best dirt males....on dirt.

What is so different this year?

Do you think Zenyatta was simply lightyears better last year than the top two fillies this year? I don't.
Or do you think the horses on your list are simply lightyears better than Blame, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky, etc from last year?

Zenyatta was a very difficult horse to correctly assess. She was really good and did have an element of "I'll do what I have to do to win." The fact that she competed so well in the BCC had everything to do with the way the race unfolded. The dynamics were greatly in her favor. Both times Zenyatta faced males she had things go her way and she capitalized. That takes nothing away from how well she ran in both of her BC Classic tries.

Blind Luck would certainly be the type of filly that would benefit from a big pace setup facing males. Havre de Grace would to a lesser extent. Awesome Maria is like to get scorched facing the males that are headed to the Whitney.

Most importantly, like you said, it's conjecture at this point because none of them are facing males any time soon.

[King Glorious]

I think it's at least worth discussing because at least we can be reasonably assured that those fillies will still be racing, something we can never be sure about when it comes to Rail Trip and Morning Line. I have the utmost respect for Rail Trip. I was on here saying he'd be horse of the year in the past. At his best, I don't think any of the fillies would stand a chance and I don't think any of the males would either. But it's been so long since I've seen that best that I don't know if it's safe to assume that I ever will again.