Blind Luck Is Awesome; To be offered at KEE Nov. Sale

[miraja2]

If Giant Oak can defeat Morning Line going 9f, is it really that unrealistic to think that one of the fillies might have a shot of doing the same?
I think any of the three mentioned would have been extremely competitive in the Foster yesterday, and (sad as it is) I'm not sure there's much of a guarantee that the races later in the year will be a whole lot better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If Giant Oak can defeat Morning Line going 9f, is it really that unrealistic to think that one of the fillies might have a shot of doing the same?
I think any of the three mentioned would have been extremely competitive in the Foster yesterday, and (sad as it is) I'm not sure there's much of a guarantee that the races later in the year will be a whole lot better.

Isn't it important when ridiculing Morning LIne for losing to Giant Oak to consider the dynamics of the race in question?

As bad as the Foster was, it was really only a race to see which horses Mike Watchmaker overrated the most on his Watchmaker Watch.

[randallscott35]

Criticize a Zito horse at your own peril on here Joe. You should know better....Dialed In just finished up and didn't even come back blowing.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Isn't it important when ridiculing Morning LIne for losing to Giant Oak to consider the dynamics of the race in question?

As bad as the Foster was, it was really only a race to see which horses Mike Watchmaker overrated the most on his Watchmaker Watch.

Of course the dynamics are important, and I'm pretty sure I wasn't "ridiculing" Morning Line. I'm just not sure there are many older males running right now (him included) who you can count on to overcome unfavorable race dynamics to win a big race. If horses like Giant Oak and Pool Play can pick up the pieces and win big races against the top of this division, I'm not sure why the fillies can't.

Zenyatta was extremely competitive in her one try against the older male division last year, and I'm not convinced that she was much better than these three fillies or that this year's older male division is better than last year's.

[King Glorious]

Morning Line was awesome today at Monmouth. If I was the connections of Blind Luck or Havre de Grace or Awesome Maria, I'd surely be running away from any race that ML was being considered for. He's a world beater.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Morning Line was awesome today at Monmouth. If I was the connections of Blind Luck or Havre de Grace or Awesome Maria, I'd surely be running away from any race that ML was being considered for. He's a world beater.

Morning Line had just 2 works since early May going into this. He won the Grade 1 Carter back in April, but skipped all sorts of stakes racing in the last 2 months. Then he shows up in a Grade 3.

Something tells me he wasn't ready to bring his best stuff to the table. Off this race, if he's able to continue training and racing with regularity, he should improve. It could be a big "if", though.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Morning Line had just 2 works since early May going into this. He won the Grade 1 Carter back in April, but skipped all sorts of stakes racing in the last 2 months. Then he shows up in a Grade 3.

Something tells me he wasn't ready to bring his best stuff to the table. Off this race, if he's able to continue training and racing with regularity, he should improve. It could be a big "if", though.

Isn't it also a tad ironic that an also ran from a race that was maligned in this very thread came back to win a G2 in impressive fashion?

Look on the bright side, there's a chance Blind Luck will be in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Isn't it also a tad ironic that an also ran from a race that was maligned in this very thread came back to win a G2 in impressive fashion?

Look on the bright side, there's a chance Blind Luck will be in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

If Flat Out, who has a lot of layoff lines in his PPs, can reproduce that race, we might actually have some fun later on this year.

I don't really like Blind Luck in the Gold Cup. She hasn't been dominant in her division, so why go there? Now that she's at least found her winning form, the rivalry with Havre De Grace is more interesting.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Morning Line had just 2 works since early May going into this. He won the Grade 1 Carter back in April, but skipped all sorts of stakes racing in the last 2 months. Then he shows up in a Grade 3.

Something tells me he wasn't ready to bring his best stuff to the table. Off this race, if he's able to continue training and racing with regularity, he should improve. It could be a big "if", though.

All true but that's the main point. There is very little consistency among them. They are all big ifs. Flat Out just won today what I believe is his first graded stakes and he dominated it in such a fashion that hopes are up that he might be something good, forgetting he's five and not a 3yo in his fourth career start and what he did last out.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

All true but that's the main point. There is very little consistency among them. They are all big ifs. Flat Out just won today what I believe is his first graded stakes and he dominated it in such a fashion that hopes are up that he might be something good, forgetting he's five and not a 3yo in his fourth career start and what he did last out.

A major difference between the older male division and the female one is the stakes programs offered to each. Part of the reason the older males take turns beating each other is that they are forced to ship around. The Donn winner has been on the road. The Big Cap winner has been on the road. NYRA's stakes are geared towards milers in the early part of the season. There's not a lot of opportunity to lay down a string of good races at the same venue.

The females meanwhile can get away with being homebodies. Why are we blessed with such consistent machines like Havre de Grace and Awesome Maria? One big reason is they haven't had to face one another. They have convenient Grade 3 preps before the signature events which allows them to rack up wins. Havre de Grace has run in one significant race all year, and got up to beat, but did not dominate, Switch--a good barometer for her division. Arguably, Awesome Maria hasn't run in an important race all year. They've had things their own way all season. Let them sort themselves out first before declaring all 3 capable of facing males.

Even if there was a truly dominant female, that wouldn't mean it could hang with the boys anyways. Better mares like Bayakoa ('90 Big Cap unplaced), Paseana ('92 Pacific Classic uplaced), and Gorgeous ('90 Pimlico Special unplaced) tried males when the older horses seemed in flux, yet got chewed up and spit out anyways. It would probably need to be an advantageous spot for one of those fillies to beat males this year.

Maybe if they run the Brooklyn a week before the Jockey Club Gold Cup again their might be an opportunity...

[Kasept]

Blind Luck, Havre de Grace will renew rivalry in Delaware Handicap
By David Grening

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer on Sunday confirmed Blind Luck as a starter for Saturday’s $750,000 Delaware Handicap, renewing that filly’s rivalry with Havre de Grace. The two powerhouse fillies have met five previous times with Blind Luck winning the Delaware Oaks and the Alabama last year and Havre de Grace winning last year’s Fitz Dixon Cotillion and this year’s Azeri at Oaklawn Park. In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, Blind Luck finished second and Havre de Grace was third, behind Unrivaled Belle.

Hollendorfer wanted to see the weight assignments before committing Blind Luck to the Del Cap. Blind Luck was assigned 122 pounds, two less than Havre de Grace, who got 124 from racing secretary Pat Pope. “I thought she should get some weight from Havre de Grace,’’ Hollendorfer said. “I wasn’t going to run if they put me at equal weights or gave me a pound. They gave us two pounds. We’re coming into her backyard.’’

Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday he is “leaning toward’’ running defending Delaware Handicap winner Life At Ten (115#) against those two on Saturday. Pletcher said he was pleased with Life At Ten’s five-furlong workout in 1:00.66 Sunday morning over the Belmont Park main track. Life At Ten worked in company with Belmont Stakes runner-up Stay Thirsty. “Obviously, it’s a very tough race, but she gets a little bit of a weight concession over a surface she’s won on before,’’ Pletcher said.

[TouchOfGrey]

Pacific Classic under consideration.

DRF|Blind Luck may try Pacific Classic

Hollendorfer said the main choices for Blind Luck’s next start are the Pacific Classic or the $300,000 Personal Ensign Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga on Aug. 28. The $250,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes over 1 1/16 miles at Monmouth Park, also on Aug. 28, is the least likely option.

Hollendorfer said the Pacific Classic “would be one to look at. That’s not my style, but we might do it if it looks right.”

[Sightseek]

Awesome!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey

Pacific Classic under consideration.

I think Bourbon Bay's effort today may have sent the Pacific Classic down to number 3 with a bullet on Hollendorfer's "possible next start" list.

[King Glorious]

This thread came to mind as I watched Rail Trip, Friend or Foe, and Morning Line in the Whitney. I find it hard to believe that Blind Luck and Havre de Grace wouldn't even have a shot against them. I don't think as highly of them as others do.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Isn't it important when ridiculing Morning LIne for losing to Giant Oak to consider the dynamics of the race in question?

But that's his running style and it's what makes him vulnerable at two turns, no?

I just don't think the gap between the top males and top females is nearly as big as some do.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But that's his running style and it's what makes him vulnerable at two turns, no?

I just don't think the chasm between the top males and top females is nearly as big as some do.

After having your manhood questioned like that in this thread you come out like the Jets in the AFC championship against Pitt....used up early....you were right in your initial assessment. Simply stick to it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

After having your manhood questioned like that in this thread you come out like the Jets in the AFC championship against Pitt....used up early....you were right in your initial assessment. Simply stick to it.

I just don't care enough anymore to get into multi-page arguments.

I'll echo what miraja said and add that I've seen too many miserable favorites in important handicap races this year to discount the top three fillies/mares.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I just don't care enough anymore to get into multi-page arguments.

I'll echo what miraja said and add that I've seen too many miserable favorites in important handicap races this year to discount the top three fillies/mares.

You remind me of a younger version of Gandhi right now. Very cool.

[Travis Stone]

The one thing about Blind Luck that I think is interesting is that in none of her recent races has she faced a really fast or strong pace. The only time in her most recent starts where she saw a half faster than 47-flat was at SA on the speedway.

I think she would have at least threatened 4th or 5th in the last year's BC Classic given how that race shook-out.